Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
Resumen:
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
| 2024 | |
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CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD ANCIANO FRÍO EXTREMO CALOR EXTREMO CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL MORTALIDAD TEMPERATURA |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56322 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |