Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments
Resumen:
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently over-confident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utilitymaximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that thevast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average e§ect are actuallyconsistent with Bayesian updating.
| 2013 | |
|
Overconfidence Better than Average Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
|
| Inglés | |
| Universidad de Montevideo | |
| REDUM | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1330 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| _version_ | 1807356682351673344 |
|---|---|
| author | Benoit, Jean Pierre |
| author2 | Moore, Done Dubra, Juan |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Benoit, Jean Pierre Moore, Done Dubra, Juan |
| author_role | author |
| bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv | b0dd248e5e90a37ab3ea70f45416cd82 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6 c5648e13ca4e860b901808c68a37d3b7 25aad73a230dd0f81b1a9b947088c7ae |
| bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv | MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
| bitstream.url.fl_str_mv | http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/1/working_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/2/license_rdf http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/3/license.txt http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/4/working_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.txt http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/5/working_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.jpg |
| collection | REDUM |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.es.fl_str_mv | Benoit, Jean Pierre. London Buisness School Moore, Done. Haas School of Business Dubra, Juan. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Benoit, Jean Pierre Moore, Done Dubra, Juan |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-04-20T14:54:05Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-04-20T14:54:05Z |
| dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv | 2013 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently over-confident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utilitymaximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that thevast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average e§ect are actuallyconsistent with Bayesian updating. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 31 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1330 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía |
| dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Documentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía; UM_CEE_2013_01 |
| dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv | Abierto |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:REDUM instname:Universidad de Montevideo instacron:Universidad de Montevideo |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Overconfidence Better than Average Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Documento de Trabajo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |
| dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv | Publicada |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently over-confident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utilitymaximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that thevast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average e§ect are actuallyconsistent with Bayesian updating. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | workingPaper |
| id | REDUM_d395d8c6caae62f73fca8f3811687287 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de Montevideo |
| institution | Universidad de Montevideo |
| instname_str | Universidad de Montevideo |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | REDUM |
| network_name_str | REDUM |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.12806/1330 |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| reponame_str | REDUM |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | nolascoaga@um.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | REDUM - Universidad de Montevideo |
| repository_id_str | 10501 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional Abierto http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| spelling | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternacionalAbiertohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessfc929769-de6d-4330-b94d-510ed54d79a55abc3cac-25f0-4c80-b5fc-5930471688f1eccacc7e-634f-4b0b-a338-a8d13974eb2cBenoit, Jean Pierre. London Buisness SchoolMoore, Done. Haas School of BusinessDubra, Juan. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay2022-04-20T14:54:05Z2022-04-20T14:54:05Z2013https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1330We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently over-confident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utilitymaximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that thevast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average e§ect are actuallyconsistent with Bayesian updating.31 p.application/pdfengUniversidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de EconomíaDocumentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía; UM_CEE_2013_01OverconfidenceBetter than AverageExperimental EconomicsIrrationalitySignalling ModelsDoes the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experimentsDocumento de TrabajoPublicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperreponame:REDUMinstname:Universidad de Montevideoinstacron:Universidad de MontevideoBenoit, Jean PierreMoore, DoneDubra, JuanORIGINALworking_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdfworking_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdfapplication/pdf506201http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/1/working_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdfb0dd248e5e90a37ab3ea70f45416cd82MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82117http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/3/license.txt691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6MD53TEXTworking_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.txtworking_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain79792http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/4/working_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.txtc5648e13ca4e860b901808c68a37d3b7MD54THUMBNAILworking_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.jpgworking_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1476http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1330/5/working_paper_um_cee_2013_01.pdf.jpg25aad73a230dd0f81b1a9b947088c7aeMD5520.500.12806/13302024-06-04 03:00:17.21oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.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Universidadhttps://um.edu.uy/https://redum.um.edu.uy/oai/requestnolascoaga@um.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:105012024-06-04T06:00:17REDUM - Universidad de Montevideofalse |
| spellingShingle | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments Benoit, Jean Pierre Overconfidence Better than Average Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| title_full | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| title_fullStr | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| title_full_unstemmed | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| title_short | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| title_sort | Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments |
| topic | Overconfidence Better than Average Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1330 |
