Does the better -than- average effect show that people are overconfident?: two experiments
Resumen:
We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently over-confident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utilitymaximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that thevast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average e§ect are actuallyconsistent with Bayesian updating.
| 2013 | |
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Overconfidence Better than Average Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de Montevideo | |
| REDUM | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1330 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| Sumario: | We conduct two experiments of the claim that people are overconfident, using newtests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experi-ments, on easy quizzes, find overplacement. More precisely, we find apparently over-confident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utilitymaximizers with a good understanding of the nature of the quizzes they took. The finding is of particular interest because Benoit and Dubra (2011) have shown that thevast majority of the existing findings on the better-than-average e§ect are actuallyconsistent with Bayesian updating. |
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