Hydrologic analysis of climate change scenarios in Spain
Análisis hidrológico de los escenarios de cambio climático en España
| 2013 | |
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Cambio climático Modelos climáticos Análisis hidrológico Variables climáticas Climate change Climate models Hydrological analysis Climatic variables |
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| Español | |
| Universidad de Montevideo | |
| REDUM | |
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http://revistas.um.edu.uy/index.php/ingenieria/article/view/355
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2510 |
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| Acceso abierto | |
| Atribución 4.0 Internacional |
| Sumario: | In order to evaluate the impact of climate change in water resources it is important to know whether the simulations of climate models are representative of the observed hydrologic characteristics, as well as determine how are the variations of the different hydrometeorologicalvariables under climate change scenarios. This study analyzes the behavior of the main variables involved in the hydrological cycle: precipitation, temperature, evaporation and runoff, in current situation or control scenario (1961-1990) and climate change scenario A2 (2071-2100) underdifferent climate projections from the PRUDENCE European project. The analysis is performed in the basins that cover the whole territory of mainland Spain. The results highlight a negative bias in the runoff simulated by climate models with respect to the observed values estimated bythe hydrological model SIMPA. The climate projections show an increase in mean temperature and a decrease in precipitation, evaporation and runoff and also projecting an increase in the coefficient of variation. Temperature and precipitation variables show more similar and homogeneous results, variable evaporation shows some heterogeneity and the variable runoff shows greater dispersion in the results. |
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