Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
Resumen:
Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative.
| 2020 | |
|
Elicitation Overconfidence Control Experimental Methods |
|
| Inglés | |
| Universidad de Montevideo | |
| REDUM | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2747 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| _version_ | 1878928764393488384 |
|---|---|
| author | Benoît, Jean-Pierre |
| author2 | Dubra, Juan |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Benoît, Jean-Pierre Dubra, Juan |
| author_role | author |
| bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv | 022bdf4b69791ef5cc76c61c63b80aa7 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6 f6502bbac6d5addef09ad15fb0d25214 841483c6bd2e4981129759cae567761c |
| bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv | MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
| bitstream.url.fl_str_mv | http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/1/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/2/license_rdf http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/3/license.txt http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/4/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf.txt http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/5/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf.jpg |
| collection | REDUM |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Benoît, Jean-Pierre Dubra, Juan |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2025-09-11T14:25:59Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2025-09-11T14:25:59Z |
| dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv | 2020 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 65 |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | text/plain |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2747 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía |
| dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv | Abierto |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:REDUM instname:Universidad de Montevideo instacron:Universidad de Montevideo |
| dc.subject.keyword.es.fl_str_mv | Elicitation Overconfidence Control Experimental Methods |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Reporte técnico |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/report |
| dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv | Aceptada |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
| description | Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | report |
| id | REDUM_b05f5e516ec4d158e2f93baf070fe0e5 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de Montevideo |
| institution | Universidad de Montevideo |
| instname_str | Universidad de Montevideo |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | REDUM |
| network_name_str | REDUM |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.12806/2747 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| reponame_str | REDUM |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | nolascoaga@um.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | REDUM - Universidad de Montevideo |
| repository_id_str | 10501 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional Abierto http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| spelling | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternacionalAbiertohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessd880c394-82c1-41d3-869e-9038d3a2e5a3eccacc7e-634f-4b0b-a338-a8d13974eb2c2025-09-11T14:25:59Z2025-09-11T14:25:59Z2020https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/274765text/plainengUniversidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y EconomíaBelief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”Reporte técnicoAceptadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/reportIncentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative.ElicitationOverconfidenceControlExperimental Methodsreponame:REDUMinstname:Universidad de Montevideoinstacron:Universidad de MontevideoBenoît, Jean-PierreDubra, JuanORIGINALBenoît, Dubra.pdfBenoît, Dubra.pdfapplication/pdf975599http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/1/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf022bdf4b69791ef5cc76c61c63b80aa7MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82117http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/3/license.txt691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6MD53TEXTBenoît, Dubra.pdf.txtBenoît, Dubra.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain133177http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/4/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf.txtf6502bbac6d5addef09ad15fb0d25214MD54THUMBNAILBenoît, Dubra.pdf.jpgBenoît, Dubra.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1524http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/5/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf.jpg841483c6bd2e4981129759cae567761cMD5520.500.12806/27472025-09-12 03:00:39.045oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.12806/2747TGljZW5jaWEgZGUgRGlzdHJpYnVjacOzbiBObyBFeGNsdXNpdmEgCkF1dG9yaXphY2nDs24gcGFyYSBsYSBwdWJsaWNhY2nDs24gZW4gZWwgUmVwb3NpdG9yaW8gRGlnaXRhbCBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZCBkZSBNb250ZXZpZGVvIChSRURVTSkKClBhcmEgcXVlIGVsIFJFRFVNIGFsbWFjZW5lLCByZXByb2R1emNhIHkgZGlmdW5kYSBww7pibGljYW1lbnRlIGxhIG9icmEgcXVlIHNlIGRlcG9zaXRhLCBlcyBuZWNlc2FyaW8gcXVlIGFjZXB0ZSBsb3Mgc2lndWllbnRlcyB0w6lybWlub3M6CgoxLglBdXRvcml6byBhIGxhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkIGRlIE1vbnRldmlkZW8gZWwgZGVyZWNobyBubyBleGNsdXNpdm8gZGUgYWxtYWNlbmFyLCByZXByb2R1Y2lyLCBjb211bmljYXIgeS9vIGRpc3RyaWJ1aXIgZ3JhdHVpdGEgeSBww7pibGljYW1lbnRlIGVzdGEgb2JyYSBiYWpvIGZvcm1hdG8gZWxlY3Ryw7NuaWNvIGVuIGVsIFJFRFVNLiAKMi4JRXN0b3kgZGUgYWN1ZXJkbyBlbiBxdWUgbGEgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWQgZGUgTW9udGV2aWRlbyBwdWVkYSBjb25zZXJ2YXIgbcOhcyBkZSB1bmEgY29waWEgZGUgZXN0YSBvYnJhIHksIHNpbiBhbHRlcmFyIHN1IGNvbnRlbmlkbywgY29udmVydGlybG8gYSBjdWFscXVpZXIgZm9ybWF0byBkZSBhcmNoaXZvLCBtZWRpbyBvIHNvcG9ydGUsIHBhcmEgcHJvcMOzc2l0b3MgZGUgc2VndXJpZGFkLCBwcmVzZXJ2YWNpw7NuIHkgYWNjZXNvLiAKMy4JQXV0b3Jpem8gbGEgcmVwcm9kdWNjacOzbiB0b3RhbCBvIHBhcmNpYWwgZGUgbGEgb2JyYSwgc2llbXByZSBhc29jaWFkYSBhIG1pIG5vbWJyZSBlbiBjYWxpZGFkIGRlIGF1dG9yLgo0LglFbiBuaW5ndW5hIGNpcmN1bnN0YW5jaWEgYXV0b3Jpem8gbGEgYWRhcHRhY2nDs24sIHRyYW5zZm9ybWFjacOzbiwgdHJhZHVjY2nDs24geSBlbiBnZW5lcmFsIGN1YWxxdWllciB0aXBvIGRlIG1vZGlmaWNhY2nDs24gYSBtaSBvYnJhLgo1LglEZWNsYXJvIHF1ZSBlc3RhIG9icmEgZXMgdW4gdHJhYmFqbyBvcmlnaW5hbCB5IHF1ZSBzb3kgYXV0b3IgZGUgbGEgbWlzbWEgeSBxdWUgbm8gaGUgb3RvcmdhZG8gZXNvcyBkZXJlY2hvcyBhIHRlcmNlcm9zIHF1ZSBwdWVkYW4gbGltaXRhciBhIGxhIFVNIHBhcmEgZWplcmNlcmxvcy4gCjYuCUVuIGVsIGNhc28gZGUgcXVlIGVzdGEgb2JyYSBjb250ZW5nYSBtYXRlcmlhbCBwYXJhIGVsIHF1ZSBubyBwb3NlbyBkZXJlY2hvcyBkZSBhdXRvciwgZGVjbGFybyBxdWUgaGUgb2J0ZW5pZG8gZWwgcGVybWlzbyBzaW4gcmVzdHJpY2Npb25lcyBkZWwKcHJvcGlldGFyaW8gZGUgbG9zIGRlcmVjaG9zIGRlIGF1dG9yIHBhcmEgb3RvcmdhciBhIGxhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkIGRlIE1vbnRldmlkZW8gbG9zIGRlcmVjaG9zIHJlcXVlcmlkb3MgcG9yIGVzdGEgbGljZW5jaWEsIHkgcXVlIGRpY2hvIG1hdGVyaWFsIGRlIHRlcmNlcm9zIGVzdMOhIGNsYXJhbWVudGUgaWRlbnRpZmljYWRvIHkgcmVjb25vY2lkbyBkZW50cm8gZGVsIHRleHRvIG8gY29udGVuaWRvIGRlIGxhIHByZXNlbnRhY2nDs24uIAo3LglEZWNsYXJvIHF1ZSBsYSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZCBkZSBNb250ZXZpZGVvIHF1ZWRhIGV4Y2x1aWRhIGRlIHRvZGEgcmVzcG9uc2FiaWxpZGFkIGVuIGNhc28gZGUgZXZlbnR1YWxlcyByZWNsYW1hY2lvbmVzIGRlIHRlcmNlcm9zIHBvciBpbmZyaW5naXIgbG9zIGRlcmVjaG9zIGRlIGF1dG9yLiAKOC4JRGVjbGFybyBxdWUgbGFzIG9waW5pb25lcyBleHByZXNhZGFzIGVuIGVzdGUgZG9jdW1lbnRvIG5vIHNvbiBuZWNlc2FyaWFtZW50ZSBjb21wYXJ0aWRhcyBwb3IgbGEgVW5pdmVyc2lkYWQgZGUgTW9udGV2aWRlby4gCjkuCUF1dG9yaXpvIGEgbG9zIHVzdWFyaW9zIGRlbCBSRURVTSBwYXJhIHV0aWxpemFyLCByZXByb2R1Y2lyIHkgZGlzdHJpYnVpciBlc3RlIGRvY3VtZW50byBiYWpvIGxpY2VuY2lhIENyZWF0aXZlIENvbW1vbnMgNC4wLiAoQXRyaWJ1Y2nDs24tTm9Db21lcmNpYWwtU2luRGVyaXZhZGFzIDQuMCBJbnRlcm5hY2lvbmFsKS4KClNpIHRpZW5lIGFsZ3VuYSBkdWRhIHNvYnJlIGxvcyB0w6lybWlub3MgZGUgZXN0YSBhdXRvcml6YWNpw7NuLCBwb3IgZmF2b3IgZW52w61lbGEgYSBiaWJsaW90ZWNhQHVtLmVkdS51eQoKCgo=Institucionalhttps://redum.um.edu.uy/Universidadhttps://um.edu.uy/https://redum.um.edu.uy/oai/requestnolascoaga@um.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:105012025-09-12T06:00:39REDUM - Universidad de Montevideofalse |
| spellingShingle | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” Benoît, Jean-Pierre Elicitation Overconfidence Control Experimental Methods |
| status_str | acceptedVersion |
| title | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| title_full | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| title_fullStr | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| title_full_unstemmed | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| title_short | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| title_sort | Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control” |
| topic | Elicitation Overconfidence Control Experimental Methods |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2747 |