Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”

Benoît, Jean-Pierre - Dubra, Juan

Resumen:

Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative.

Detalles Bibliográficos
2020
Elicitation
Overconfidence
Control
Experimental Methods
Inglés
Universidad de Montevideo
REDUM
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2747
Acceso abierto
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
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author Benoît, Jean-Pierre
author2 Dubra, Juan
author2_role author
author_facet Benoît, Jean-Pierre
Dubra, Juan
author_role author
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dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Benoît, Jean-Pierre
Dubra, Juan
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2025-09-11T14:25:59Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2025-09-11T14:25:59Z
dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 65
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv text/plain
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2747
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía
dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv Abierto
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:REDUM
instname:Universidad de Montevideo
instacron:Universidad de Montevideo
dc.subject.keyword.es.fl_str_mv Elicitation
Overconfidence
Control
Experimental Methods
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Reporte técnico
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/report
dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv Aceptada
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
description Incentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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oai_identifier_str oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.12806/2747
publishDate 2020
reponame_str REDUM
repository.mail.fl_str_mv nolascoaga@um.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv REDUM - Universidad de Montevideo
repository_id_str 10501
rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
Abierto
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
spelling Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternacionalAbiertohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessd880c394-82c1-41d3-869e-9038d3a2e5a3eccacc7e-634f-4b0b-a338-a8d13974eb2c2025-09-11T14:25:59Z2025-09-11T14:25:59Z2020https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/274765text/plainengUniversidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y EconomíaBelief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”Reporte técnicoAceptadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/reportIncentive compatible mechanisms for eliciting beliefs typically presume that the utilty of money is state independent, or that money is the only argument in utility functions. However, subjects may have non-monetary objectives that confound the mechanisms. In particular, psychologists have argued that people favour bets where their ability is involved over equivalent random bets -a so-called preference for control. We propose a new belief elicitation method that mitigates the control preference. Using this method, we determine that under the ostensibly incentive compatible matching probabilities method, our subjects report self-beliefs 18% higher than their true beliefs in order to increase control. Non-monetary objectives account for at least 68% of what would normally be measured as overconfidence. Our mechanism can be used to yield better measurements of beliefs in contexts beyond the study of overconfidence. Our paper also contributes to a refined understanding of control. We find that control manifests itself only as a desire for betting on doing well; betting on doing badly is perceived as a negative.ElicitationOverconfidenceControlExperimental Methodsreponame:REDUMinstname:Universidad de Montevideoinstacron:Universidad de MontevideoBenoît, Jean-PierreDubra, JuanORIGINALBenoît, Dubra.pdfBenoît, Dubra.pdfapplication/pdf975599http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/1/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf022bdf4b69791ef5cc76c61c63b80aa7MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82117http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/3/license.txt691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6MD53TEXTBenoît, Dubra.pdf.txtBenoît, Dubra.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain133177http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/4/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf.txtf6502bbac6d5addef09ad15fb0d25214MD54THUMBNAILBenoît, Dubra.pdf.jpgBenoît, Dubra.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1524http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/2747/5/Beno%c3%aet%2c%20Dubra.pdf.jpg841483c6bd2e4981129759cae567761cMD5520.500.12806/27472025-09-12 03:00:39.045oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.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Institucionalhttps://redum.um.edu.uy/Universidadhttps://um.edu.uy/https://redum.um.edu.uy/oai/requestnolascoaga@um.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:105012025-09-12T06:00:39REDUM - Universidad de Montevideofalse
spellingShingle Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
Benoît, Jean-Pierre
Elicitation
Overconfidence
Control
Experimental Methods
status_str acceptedVersion
title Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
title_full Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
title_fullStr Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
title_full_unstemmed Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
title_short Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
title_sort Belief Elicitation When More Than Money Matters: Controlling for “Control”
topic Elicitation
Overconfidence
Control
Experimental Methods
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/2747