New information and inflation expectations among firms

Frache, Serafín - Lluberas, Rodrigo

Resumen:

Using data from a unique and novel monthly firm-level survey on inflation expectations in Uruguay we first present stylized facts about the inflation expectation formation process and then show how information acquisition affects firms’ inflation expectations. We show that firms’ forecasts are close to observed inflation, that a sizable proportion of firms do not revise their expectations, and that there is substantial disagreement about future inflation among firms. We also present evidence on industrial sector effects on inflation forecasts and show that the correlation between inflation expectations and cost expectations increases with the forecast time horizon. We then exploit peculiarities of the collective wage bargaining negotiation mechanism to estimate the impact of acquiring information about past inflation on expected future inflation. Our results imply that firms that adjust wages expect lower inflation, revise their expectations downwards and make smaller forecast errors than firms that do not adjust wages. We find no effect of wage adjustments on firms’ own cost expectations and that disagreement among firms is lower in the months of wage adjustment. The latter suggests that inflation expectations tend to converge as firms are more informed about past inflation.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2019
Inflation expectations
Firms’ survey
New information
Inglés
Universidad de Montevideo
REDUM
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1368
Acceso abierto
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
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author Frache, Serafín
author2 Lluberas, Rodrigo
author2_role author
author_facet Frache, Serafín
Lluberas, Rodrigo
author_role author
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dc.contributor.filiacion.es.fl_str_mv Frache, Serafín. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay
Lluberas, Rodrigo. Banco Central del Uruguay
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Frache, Serafín
Lluberas, Rodrigo
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-07-06T18:22:36Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-07-06T18:22:36Z
dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Using data from a unique and novel monthly firm-level survey on inflation expectations in Uruguay we first present stylized facts about the inflation expectation formation process and then show how information acquisition affects firms’ inflation expectations. We show that firms’ forecasts are close to observed inflation, that a sizable proportion of firms do not revise their expectations, and that there is substantial disagreement about future inflation among firms. We also present evidence on industrial sector effects on inflation forecasts and show that the correlation between inflation expectations and cost expectations increases with the forecast time horizon. We then exploit peculiarities of the collective wage bargaining negotiation mechanism to estimate the impact of acquiring information about past inflation on expected future inflation. Our results imply that firms that adjust wages expect lower inflation, revise their expectations downwards and make smaller forecast errors than firms that do not adjust wages. We find no effect of wage adjustments on firms’ own cost expectations and that disagreement among firms is lower in the months of wage adjustment. The latter suggests that inflation expectations tend to converge as firms are more informed about past inflation.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 46 p.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1368
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Documentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía
dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv Abierto
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:REDUM
instname:Universidad de Montevideo
instacron:Universidad de Montevideo
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Inflation expectations
Firms’ survey
New information
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv New information and inflation expectations among firms
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Documento de trabajo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv Publicada
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Using data from a unique and novel monthly firm-level survey on inflation expectations in Uruguay we first present stylized facts about the inflation expectation formation process and then show how information acquisition affects firms’ inflation expectations. We show that firms’ forecasts are close to observed inflation, that a sizable proportion of firms do not revise their expectations, and that there is substantial disagreement about future inflation among firms. We also present evidence on industrial sector effects on inflation forecasts and show that the correlation between inflation expectations and cost expectations increases with the forecast time horizon. We then exploit peculiarities of the collective wage bargaining negotiation mechanism to estimate the impact of acquiring information about past inflation on expected future inflation. Our results imply that firms that adjust wages expect lower inflation, revise their expectations downwards and make smaller forecast errors than firms that do not adjust wages. We find no effect of wage adjustments on firms’ own cost expectations and that disagreement among firms is lower in the months of wage adjustment. The latter suggests that inflation expectations tend to converge as firms are more informed about past inflation.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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publishDate 2019
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv nolascoaga@um.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv REDUM - Universidad de Montevideo
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rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
spelling Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternacionalAbiertohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess95234359-094d-433c-9581-7f1ad15745a4da832ddb-2e3a-4101-9905-0278208796c2Frache, Serafín. Universidad de Montevideo, UruguayLluberas, Rodrigo. Banco Central del Uruguay2022-07-06T18:22:36Z2022-07-06T18:22:36Z2019https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1368Using data from a unique and novel monthly firm-level survey on inflation expectations in Uruguay we first present stylized facts about the inflation expectation formation process and then show how information acquisition affects firms’ inflation expectations. We show that firms’ forecasts are close to observed inflation, that a sizable proportion of firms do not revise their expectations, and that there is substantial disagreement about future inflation among firms. We also present evidence on industrial sector effects on inflation forecasts and show that the correlation between inflation expectations and cost expectations increases with the forecast time horizon. We then exploit peculiarities of the collective wage bargaining negotiation mechanism to estimate the impact of acquiring information about past inflation on expected future inflation. Our results imply that firms that adjust wages expect lower inflation, revise their expectations downwards and make smaller forecast errors than firms that do not adjust wages. We find no effect of wage adjustments on firms’ own cost expectations and that disagreement among firms is lower in the months of wage adjustment. The latter suggests that inflation expectations tend to converge as firms are more informed about past inflation.46 p.application/pdfengUniversidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de EconomíaDocumentos de trabajo del Departamento de EconomíaInflation expectationsFirms’ surveyNew informationNew information and inflation expectations among firmsDocumento de trabajoPublicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperreponame:REDUMinstname:Universidad de Montevideoinstacron:Universidad de MontevideoFrache, SerafínLluberas, RodrigoORIGINALNew_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdfNew_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdfapplication/pdf1539535http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1368/1/New_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdfb0d48e47fa0aceb57126a6fe889601cdMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1368/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82117http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1368/3/license.txt691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6MD53TEXTNew_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdf.txtNew_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain80732http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1368/4/New_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdf.txt5a1a2d35e74852a85a70791fdd1c2743MD54THUMBNAILNew_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdf.jpgNew_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1441http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1368/5/New_information_and_inflation_expectations_among_firms.pdf.jpgaaa78d0ecbdc727ef099992a3e210c87MD5520.500.12806/13682024-06-04 03:00:28.49oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.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Universidadhttps://um.edu.uy/https://redum.um.edu.uy/oai/requestnolascoaga@um.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:105012024-06-04T06:00:28REDUM - Universidad de Montevideofalse
spellingShingle New information and inflation expectations among firms
Frache, Serafín
Inflation expectations
Firms’ survey
New information
status_str publishedVersion
title New information and inflation expectations among firms
title_full New information and inflation expectations among firms
title_fullStr New information and inflation expectations among firms
title_full_unstemmed New information and inflation expectations among firms
title_short New information and inflation expectations among firms
title_sort New information and inflation expectations among firms
topic Inflation expectations
Firms’ survey
New information
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1368