How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets

Hernández, Manuel A. - Ibarra, Raúl - Trupkin, Danilo

Resumen:

This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The period of analysis is 2004-2009 for corn and soybeans, and 2005-2009 for wheat. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. There is higher interaction between the United States (Chicago) and both Europe and Asia than within the latter. The results further show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities. Implications for potential regulatory policies of agricultural futures markets are also briefly discussed.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2011
Volatility transmission
Agricultural commodities
Futures markets
Multivariate
Inglés
Universidad de Montevideo
REDUM
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1319
Acceso abierto
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
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author Hernández, Manuel A.
author2 Ibarra, Raúl
Trupkin, Danilo
author2_role author
author
author_facet Hernández, Manuel A.
Ibarra, Raúl
Trupkin, Danilo
author_role author
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bitstream.url.fl_str_mv http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1319/1/working_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf
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dc.contributor.filiacion.es.fl_str_mv Trupkin, Danilo. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Hernández, Manuel A.
Ibarra, Raúl
Trupkin, Danilo
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-03-21T19:31:13Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-03-21T19:31:13Z
dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv 2011
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The period of analysis is 2004-2009 for corn and soybeans, and 2005-2009 for wheat. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. There is higher interaction between the United States (Chicago) and both Europe and Asia than within the latter. The results further show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities. Implications for potential regulatory policies of agricultural futures markets are also briefly discussed.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 53 p.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1319
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Documentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía; UM_CEE_2011_09
dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv Abierto
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:REDUM
instname:Universidad de Montevideo
instacron:Universidad de Montevideo
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Volatility transmission
Agricultural commodities
Futures markets
Multivariate
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Documento de trabajo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv Publicada
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The period of analysis is 2004-2009 for corn and soybeans, and 2005-2009 for wheat. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. There is higher interaction between the United States (Chicago) and both Europe and Asia than within the latter. The results further show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities. Implications for potential regulatory policies of agricultural futures markets are also briefly discussed.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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publishDate 2011
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv nolascoaga@um.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv REDUM - Universidad de Montevideo
repository_id_str 10501
rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
Abierto
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
spelling Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternacionalAbiertohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2955f946-25f4-43f1-879f-b6036d4c5abedf44af77-966a-49d2-b9b4-f6610c26ef382e2d66c3-0fa2-4c36-bfd2-4c537e58347cTrupkin, Danilo. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay2022-03-21T19:31:13Z2022-03-21T19:31:13Z2011https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1319This paper examines the level of interdependence and volatility transmission in global agricultural futures markets. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to explore the dynamics and cross-dynamics of volatility across major exchanges of corn, wheat, and soybeans between the United States, Europe, and Asia. We account for the potential bias that may arise when considering exchanges with different closing times. The period of analysis is 2004-2009 for corn and soybeans, and 2005-2009 for wheat. The results indicate that agricultural markets are highly interrelated and there are both own- and cross volatility spillovers and dependence among most of the exchanges. There is higher interaction between the United States (Chicago) and both Europe and Asia than within the latter. The results further show the major role Chicago plays in terms of spillover effects over the other markets, particularly for corn and wheat. Additionally, the level of interdependence between exchanges has only increased in recent years for some of the commodities. Implications for potential regulatory policies of agricultural futures markets are also briefly discussed.53 p.application/pdfengUniversidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de EconomíaDocumentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía; UM_CEE_2011_09Volatility transmissionAgricultural commoditiesFutures marketsMultivariateHow far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures marketsDocumento de trabajoPublicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperreponame:REDUMinstname:Universidad de Montevideoinstacron:Universidad de MontevideoHernández, Manuel A.Ibarra, RaúlTrupkin, DaniloORIGINALworking_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdfworking_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdfapplication/pdf1704377http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1319/1/working_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf9924996e826c139400e94ab0530863dfMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1319/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82117http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1319/3/license.txt691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6MD53TEXTworking_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf.txtworking_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain85534http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1319/4/working_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf.txt786333a5406a4b96697cc2b154635bb7MD54THUMBNAILworking_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf.jpgworking_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1525http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1319/5/working_paper_um_cee_2011_09.pdf.jpga61eeea5c860665716a8de71a35d550aMD5520.500.12806/13192024-06-04 03:01:01.841oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.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Universidadhttps://um.edu.uy/https://redum.um.edu.uy/oai/requestnolascoaga@um.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:105012024-06-04T06:01:01REDUM - Universidad de Montevideofalse
spellingShingle How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
Hernández, Manuel A.
Volatility transmission
Agricultural commodities
Futures markets
Multivariate
status_str publishedVersion
title How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
title_full How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
title_fullStr How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
title_full_unstemmed How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
title_short How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
title_sort How far do shocks move across borders? examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets
topic Volatility transmission
Agricultural commodities
Futures markets
Multivariate
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1319