Apparent overconfidence
Resumen:
It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on difficult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent misconfidence is problematic. We argue, however, that this behaviour is consistent with purely rational Bayesian updaters. In fact, better-than average data by itself cannot be used to show overconfidence; we indicate which type of data can be used. Our theory is consistent with empirical patterns found in the literature.
| 2011 | |
|
Overconfidence Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
|
| Inglés | |
| Universidad de Montevideo | |
| REDUM | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1316 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| _version_ | 1807356682120986624 |
|---|---|
| author | Benoit, Jean Pierre |
| author2 | Dubra, Juan |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Benoit, Jean Pierre Dubra, Juan |
| author_role | author |
| bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv | 62110a302d7f609a47e05c27a2f655fc 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6 d9ed780b4c838f7a03da4fb29a340011 3951942126dcd893db3c48833da4286f |
| bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv | MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
| bitstream.url.fl_str_mv | http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/1/working_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/2/license_rdf http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/3/license.txt http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/4/working_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.txt http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/5/working_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.jpg |
| collection | REDUM |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.es.fl_str_mv | Benoit, Jean Pierre. London Buisness School Dubra, Juan. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Benoit, Jean Pierre Dubra, Juan |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-03-21T19:08:06Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-03-21T19:08:06Z |
| dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv | 2011 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on difficult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent misconfidence is problematic. We argue, however, that this behaviour is consistent with purely rational Bayesian updaters. In fact, better-than average data by itself cannot be used to show overconfidence; we indicate which type of data can be used. Our theory is consistent with empirical patterns found in the literature. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 28 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1316 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Universidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de Economía |
| dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Documentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía; UM_CEE_2011_06 |
| dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv | Abierto |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:REDUM instname:Universidad de Montevideo instacron:Universidad de Montevideo |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Overconfidence Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Apparent overconfidence |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Documento de trabajo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |
| dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv | Publicada |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on difficult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent misconfidence is problematic. We argue, however, that this behaviour is consistent with purely rational Bayesian updaters. In fact, better-than average data by itself cannot be used to show overconfidence; we indicate which type of data can be used. Our theory is consistent with empirical patterns found in the literature. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | workingPaper |
| id | REDUM_106488c5b0a8e07271f91135fb236e04 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de Montevideo |
| institution | Universidad de Montevideo |
| instname_str | Universidad de Montevideo |
| language | eng |
| network_acronym_str | REDUM |
| network_name_str | REDUM |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.12806/1316 |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| reponame_str | REDUM |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | nolascoaga@um.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | REDUM - Universidad de Montevideo |
| repository_id_str | 10501 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional Abierto http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
| spelling | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternacionalAbiertohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess31716973-f41e-4aff-8596-82a53031ed02eccacc7e-634f-4b0b-a338-a8d13974eb2cBenoit, Jean Pierre. London Buisness SchoolDubra, Juan. Universidad de Montevideo, Uruguay2022-03-21T19:08:06Z2022-03-21T19:08:06Z2011https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1316It is common for a majority of people to rank themselves as better than average on simple tasks and worse than average on difficult tasks. The literature takes for granted that this apparent misconfidence is problematic. We argue, however, that this behaviour is consistent with purely rational Bayesian updaters. In fact, better-than average data by itself cannot be used to show overconfidence; we indicate which type of data can be used. Our theory is consistent with empirical patterns found in the literature.28 p.application/pdfengUniversidad de Montevideo, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economía, Departamento de EconomíaDocumentos de trabajo del Departamento de Economía; UM_CEE_2011_06OverconfidenceExperimental EconomicsIrrationalitySignalling ModelsApparent overconfidenceDocumento de trabajoPublicadainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperreponame:REDUMinstname:Universidad de Montevideoinstacron:Universidad de MontevideoBenoit, Jean PierreDubra, JuanORIGINALworking_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdfworking_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdfapplication/pdf567988http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/1/working_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf62110a302d7f609a47e05c27a2f655fcMD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/2/license_rdf4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82117http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/3/license.txt691ed290c8bf8671811a9242b7fc04b6MD53TEXTworking_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.txtworking_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain80589http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/4/working_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.txtd9ed780b4c838f7a03da4fb29a340011MD54THUMBNAILworking_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.jpgworking_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg1475http://redum.um.edu.uy/bitstream/20.500.12806/1316/5/working_paper_um_cee_2011_06.pdf.jpg3951942126dcd893db3c48833da4286fMD5520.500.12806/13162024-06-04 03:00:59.889oai:redum.um.edu.uy:20.500.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Universidadhttps://um.edu.uy/https://redum.um.edu.uy/oai/requestnolascoaga@um.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:105012024-06-04T06:00:59REDUM - Universidad de Montevideofalse |
| spellingShingle | Apparent overconfidence Benoit, Jean Pierre Overconfidence Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Apparent overconfidence |
| title_full | Apparent overconfidence |
| title_fullStr | Apparent overconfidence |
| title_full_unstemmed | Apparent overconfidence |
| title_short | Apparent overconfidence |
| title_sort | Apparent overconfidence |
| topic | Overconfidence Experimental Economics Irrationality Signalling Models |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12806/1316 |
