Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050

Errazola Anzolabehere, Pablo Andrés

Supervisor(es): Chilibroste, Pablo - Sposito, Victor

Resumen:

This thesis analyzed the impacts of climate change on the Uruguayan dairy sector from today to the year 2050. During the thesis’s development, the application of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) policies was evaluated to enhance the sustainable intensification of this key sector. The four spheres (or fields) of sustainability were considered: economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and organizational. The primary focus was, however, on the economic and environmental effects of climate change and the adaptation and mitigation to its likely impacts. In this context, a novel Rational Holistic Planning and Decision-making Methodology was used to examine the current situation and future scenarios to 2050. A core component of the methodology was the application of the Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) method to the main pastures in Uruguay - Lucerne, and Ryegrass - for comparing their yields in a baseline scenario with projected yields under the expected climate by 2050. CSA relevant practices were then considered to respond to the likely climate changes and generate an approach for the ongoing adaptation of the dairy sector. Finally, different sustainable development indicators were proposed in order to measure the outcomes of the application of CSA policies. The LSA results showed that climate changes by 2050 would impact the suitability of the land to produce Lucerne in Uruguay. A noticeable projected decline is likely to occur mostly in the northeast and northwest of the country. The LSA modeling also indicated that areas in the south and southeast of Uruguay would experience a slight increase in their potential to grow this pasture. In the case of Ryegrass, the LSA modeling indicated that the southeast of the country would be the most benefited by the changes in the rainfall patterns and the increase in temperatures, with some benefits also occurring in the north. On the other hand, the southwest of the country is expected to slightly decrease the suitability for Ryegrass. This demonstrated the diverse impacts of climate change on the two main pastures as well as the possibilities for adaptation; for example, by moving from cultivating one (Lucerne) to the other (Ryegrass) in the southeast and north of Uruguay. These results are an important contribution to the decision-making process of dairy farmers and public institutions promoting the sustainable intensification of the dairy sector towards the future. While this particular research was focused on the Uruguayan dairy sector, the methodology deployed and its key methods can be applied in Uruguay, or other developing countries or sectors, promoting the sustainable development of other industries and regions.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2021
Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
Climate change
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Land Suitability Analysis
Sustainable development
Ciencias Agrícolas
Producción Animal y Lechería
Inglés
Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
REDI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/297
Acceso abierto
Dedicación de Dominio Público 1.0 Universal. (CC0)
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author Errazola Anzolabehere, Pablo Andrés
author_facet Errazola Anzolabehere, Pablo Andrés
author_role author
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 2d97768b1a25a7df5a347bb58fd2d77f
ae7c00c00954b9921a2f370dcab11f3c
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/297/2/license.txt
https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/297/1/Errazola-%20climate%20change%20impacts%20on%20the%20uruguayan%20dairy%20sector%20by%202050.pdf
collection REDI
dc.creator.advisor.none.fl_str_mv Chilibroste, Pablo
Sposito, Victor
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Errazola Anzolabehere, Pablo Andrés
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07-29T18:53:44Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07-29T18:53:44Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07-08
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv This thesis analyzed the impacts of climate change on the Uruguayan dairy sector from today to the year 2050. During the thesis’s development, the application of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) policies was evaluated to enhance the sustainable intensification of this key sector. The four spheres (or fields) of sustainability were considered: economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and organizational. The primary focus was, however, on the economic and environmental effects of climate change and the adaptation and mitigation to its likely impacts. In this context, a novel Rational Holistic Planning and Decision-making Methodology was used to examine the current situation and future scenarios to 2050. A core component of the methodology was the application of the Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) method to the main pastures in Uruguay - Lucerne, and Ryegrass - for comparing their yields in a baseline scenario with projected yields under the expected climate by 2050. CSA relevant practices were then considered to respond to the likely climate changes and generate an approach for the ongoing adaptation of the dairy sector. Finally, different sustainable development indicators were proposed in order to measure the outcomes of the application of CSA policies. The LSA results showed that climate changes by 2050 would impact the suitability of the land to produce Lucerne in Uruguay. A noticeable projected decline is likely to occur mostly in the northeast and northwest of the country. The LSA modeling also indicated that areas in the south and southeast of Uruguay would experience a slight increase in their potential to grow this pasture. In the case of Ryegrass, the LSA modeling indicated that the southeast of the country would be the most benefited by the changes in the rainfall patterns and the increase in temperatures, with some benefits also occurring in the north. On the other hand, the southwest of the country is expected to slightly decrease the suitability for Ryegrass. This demonstrated the diverse impacts of climate change on the two main pastures as well as the possibilities for adaptation; for example, by moving from cultivating one (Lucerne) to the other (Ryegrass) in the southeast and north of Uruguay. These results are an important contribution to the decision-making process of dairy farmers and public institutions promoting the sustainable intensification of the dairy sector towards the future. While this particular research was focused on the Uruguayan dairy sector, the methodology deployed and its key methods can be applied in Uruguay, or other developing countries or sectors, promoting the sustainable development of other industries and regions.
dc.description.sponsorship.none.fl_txt_mv Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
dc.identifier.anii.es.fl_str_mv POS_DKU_2018_1_1008454
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/297
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Deakin University
dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv Acceso abierto
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Dedicación de Dominio Público 1.0 Universal. (CC0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:REDI
instname:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
instacron:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
dc.subject.anii.es.fl_str_mv Ciencias Agrícolas
Producción Animal y Lechería
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Climate change
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Land Suitability Analysis
Sustainable development
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Tesis de maestría
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv Aceptado
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
description This thesis analyzed the impacts of climate change on the Uruguayan dairy sector from today to the year 2050. During the thesis’s development, the application of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) policies was evaluated to enhance the sustainable intensification of this key sector. The four spheres (or fields) of sustainability were considered: economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and organizational. The primary focus was, however, on the economic and environmental effects of climate change and the adaptation and mitigation to its likely impacts. In this context, a novel Rational Holistic Planning and Decision-making Methodology was used to examine the current situation and future scenarios to 2050. A core component of the methodology was the application of the Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) method to the main pastures in Uruguay - Lucerne, and Ryegrass - for comparing their yields in a baseline scenario with projected yields under the expected climate by 2050. CSA relevant practices were then considered to respond to the likely climate changes and generate an approach for the ongoing adaptation of the dairy sector. Finally, different sustainable development indicators were proposed in order to measure the outcomes of the application of CSA policies. The LSA results showed that climate changes by 2050 would impact the suitability of the land to produce Lucerne in Uruguay. A noticeable projected decline is likely to occur mostly in the northeast and northwest of the country. The LSA modeling also indicated that areas in the south and southeast of Uruguay would experience a slight increase in their potential to grow this pasture. In the case of Ryegrass, the LSA modeling indicated that the southeast of the country would be the most benefited by the changes in the rainfall patterns and the increase in temperatures, with some benefits also occurring in the north. On the other hand, the southwest of the country is expected to slightly decrease the suitability for Ryegrass. This demonstrated the diverse impacts of climate change on the two main pastures as well as the possibilities for adaptation; for example, by moving from cultivating one (Lucerne) to the other (Ryegrass) in the southeast and north of Uruguay. These results are an important contribution to the decision-making process of dairy farmers and public institutions promoting the sustainable intensification of the dairy sector towards the future. While this particular research was focused on the Uruguayan dairy sector, the methodology deployed and its key methods can be applied in Uruguay, or other developing countries or sectors, promoting the sustainable development of other industries and regions.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format masterThesis
id REDI_c7b9044986fd3e7249db63b66428e407
identifier_str_mv POS_DKU_2018_1_1008454
instacron_str Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
institution Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
instname_str Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
language eng
network_acronym_str REDI
network_name_str REDI
oai_identifier_str oai:redi.anii.org.uy:20.500.12381/297
publishDate 2021
reponame_str REDI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv jmaldini@anii.org.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv REDI - Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
repository_id_str 9421
rights_invalid_str_mv Dedicación de Dominio Público 1.0 Universal. (CC0)
Acceso abierto
spelling Dedicación de Dominio Público 1.0 Universal. (CC0)Acceso abiertoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2021-07-29T18:53:44Z2021-07-29T18:53:44Z2021-07-08https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/297POS_DKU_2018_1_1008454This thesis analyzed the impacts of climate change on the Uruguayan dairy sector from today to the year 2050. During the thesis’s development, the application of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) policies was evaluated to enhance the sustainable intensification of this key sector. The four spheres (or fields) of sustainability were considered: economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and organizational. The primary focus was, however, on the economic and environmental effects of climate change and the adaptation and mitigation to its likely impacts. In this context, a novel Rational Holistic Planning and Decision-making Methodology was used to examine the current situation and future scenarios to 2050. A core component of the methodology was the application of the Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) method to the main pastures in Uruguay - Lucerne, and Ryegrass - for comparing their yields in a baseline scenario with projected yields under the expected climate by 2050. CSA relevant practices were then considered to respond to the likely climate changes and generate an approach for the ongoing adaptation of the dairy sector. Finally, different sustainable development indicators were proposed in order to measure the outcomes of the application of CSA policies. The LSA results showed that climate changes by 2050 would impact the suitability of the land to produce Lucerne in Uruguay. A noticeable projected decline is likely to occur mostly in the northeast and northwest of the country. The LSA modeling also indicated that areas in the south and southeast of Uruguay would experience a slight increase in their potential to grow this pasture. In the case of Ryegrass, the LSA modeling indicated that the southeast of the country would be the most benefited by the changes in the rainfall patterns and the increase in temperatures, with some benefits also occurring in the north. On the other hand, the southwest of the country is expected to slightly decrease the suitability for Ryegrass. This demonstrated the diverse impacts of climate change on the two main pastures as well as the possibilities for adaptation; for example, by moving from cultivating one (Lucerne) to the other (Ryegrass) in the southeast and north of Uruguay. These results are an important contribution to the decision-making process of dairy farmers and public institutions promoting the sustainable intensification of the dairy sector towards the future. While this particular research was focused on the Uruguayan dairy sector, the methodology deployed and its key methods can be applied in Uruguay, or other developing countries or sectors, promoting the sustainable development of other industries and regions.Agencia Nacional de Investigación e InnovaciónengDeakin UniversityClimate changeClimate-Smart AgricultureLand Suitability AnalysisSustainable developmentCiencias AgrícolasProducción Animal y LecheríaClimate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050Tesis de maestríaAceptadoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis/ / Ciencias Agrícolas / Producción Animal y Lechería / Producción Animal y Lecheríareponame:REDIinstname:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovacióninstacron:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e InnovaciónErrazola Anzolabehere, Pablo AndrésChilibroste, PabloSposito, VictorLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84746https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/297/2/license.txt2d97768b1a25a7df5a347bb58fd2d77fMD52ORIGINALErrazola- climate change impacts on the uruguayan dairy sector by 2050.pdfErrazola- climate change impacts on the uruguayan dairy sector by 2050.pdfapplication/pdf6777992https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/297/1/Errazola-%20climate%20change%20impacts%20on%20the%20uruguayan%20dairy%20sector%20by%202050.pdfae7c00c00954b9921a2f370dcab11f3cMD5120.500.12381/2972021-08-01 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- Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovaciónfalse
spellingShingle Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
Errazola Anzolabehere, Pablo Andrés
Climate change
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Land Suitability Analysis
Sustainable development
Ciencias Agrícolas
Producción Animal y Lechería
status_str acceptedVersion
title Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
title_full Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
title_fullStr Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
title_full_unstemmed Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
title_short Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
title_sort Climate Change Impacts on The Uruguayan Dairy Sector by 2050
topic Climate change
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Land Suitability Analysis
Sustainable development
Ciencias Agrícolas
Producción Animal y Lechería
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/297