Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems

Veneri Guarch, Federico A.

Supervisor(es): Ommen, Danica M.

Resumen:

This dissertation addresses source attribution problems, an inferential task that contrasts two opposing propositions regarding the origin of items. These inferential problems arise in multiple domains but play a key role in forensic science. Due to the complexity of evidence found in practical applications, machine learning has been proposed as an alternative to evaluate the similarity between items when a probabilistic model is not feasible to construct a traditional Likelihood ratio. Score-based likelihood ratio inference hence provides an alternative framework to assess the strength of statistical evidence in this context. Our work focuses on the common and specific source inferential problems and addresses the dependence structure generated when creating training and estimation sets to develop these inferential systems. We present resampling plans to remedy these shortcomings and how ensemble learning approaches could strengthen the current methods. Chapter 2 introduces Strong Source Resampling (SSR), a source-aware resampling plan for the common source problem. This idea is extended to Weak Source Resampling (WSR) in Chapter 4. These resampling plans are the basis for developing base systems combined into a final value of evidence using an ensemble learning approach proposed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 focuses on the specific source problem, introducing synthetic source anchoring, which uses synthetic items as data augmentation, allowing the development of specific source score likelihood ratios. Lastly, Chapter 4 introduces discrepancy metrics for score likelihood ratio-based inference that can be used to study model misspecification and the effects of not accounting for dependence. Simulation results and applications in both chapters suggest that combining ensemble learning with a source-aware resampling could provide stronger, more stable statistical evidence value in the correct direction for machine learning and simple score-based likelihood ratios. Chapter 5 provides general conclusions and some avenues for further research

Detalles Bibliográficos
2024
Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
Becas de Posgrado Fulbright
Common source problem
Forensic Statistics
Score Likelihood Ratios
Source attribution
Specific source problem
Ciencias Naturales y Exactas
Matemáticas
Estadística y Probabilidad
Matemática Aplicada
Inglés
Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
REDI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/4051
https://doi.org/10.31274/td-20250502-145
Acceso abierto
Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional. (CC BY)
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author Veneri Guarch, Federico A.
author_facet Veneri Guarch, Federico A.
author_role author
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9ff60862f11d5245f169cf518aed6dc3
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/4051/2/license.txt
https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/4051/1/VeneriGuarch_iastate_0097E_21857-1-2.pdf
collection REDI
dc.creator.advisor.none.fl_str_mv Ommen, Danica M.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Veneri Guarch, Federico A.
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2025-06-03T14:39:16Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2025-06-03T14:39:16Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2024-12
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv This dissertation addresses source attribution problems, an inferential task that contrasts two opposing propositions regarding the origin of items. These inferential problems arise in multiple domains but play a key role in forensic science. Due to the complexity of evidence found in practical applications, machine learning has been proposed as an alternative to evaluate the similarity between items when a probabilistic model is not feasible to construct a traditional Likelihood ratio. Score-based likelihood ratio inference hence provides an alternative framework to assess the strength of statistical evidence in this context. Our work focuses on the common and specific source inferential problems and addresses the dependence structure generated when creating training and estimation sets to develop these inferential systems. We present resampling plans to remedy these shortcomings and how ensemble learning approaches could strengthen the current methods. Chapter 2 introduces Strong Source Resampling (SSR), a source-aware resampling plan for the common source problem. This idea is extended to Weak Source Resampling (WSR) in Chapter 4. These resampling plans are the basis for developing base systems combined into a final value of evidence using an ensemble learning approach proposed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 focuses on the specific source problem, introducing synthetic source anchoring, which uses synthetic items as data augmentation, allowing the development of specific source score likelihood ratios. Lastly, Chapter 4 introduces discrepancy metrics for score likelihood ratio-based inference that can be used to study model misspecification and the effects of not accounting for dependence. Simulation results and applications in both chapters suggest that combining ensemble learning with a source-aware resampling could provide stronger, more stable statistical evidence value in the correct direction for machine learning and simple score-based likelihood ratios. Chapter 5 provides general conclusions and some avenues for further research
dc.description.sponsorship.none.fl_txt_mv Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
Becas de Posgrado Fulbright
dc.identifier.anii.es.fl_str_mv POS_FUL_2019_1_1008440
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.31274/td-20250502-145
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/4051
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Iowa State University
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/dv6lp7Xz
dc.rights.*.fl_str_mv Acceso abierto
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional. (CC BY)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:REDI
instname:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
instacron:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
dc.subject.anii.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Naturales y Exactas
Matemáticas
Estadística y Probabilidad
Matemática Aplicada
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Common source problem
Forensic Statistics
Score Likelihood Ratios
Source attribution
Specific source problem
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Tesis de doctorado
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
dc.type.version.es.fl_str_mv Publicado
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description This dissertation addresses source attribution problems, an inferential task that contrasts two opposing propositions regarding the origin of items. These inferential problems arise in multiple domains but play a key role in forensic science. Due to the complexity of evidence found in practical applications, machine learning has been proposed as an alternative to evaluate the similarity between items when a probabilistic model is not feasible to construct a traditional Likelihood ratio. Score-based likelihood ratio inference hence provides an alternative framework to assess the strength of statistical evidence in this context. Our work focuses on the common and specific source inferential problems and addresses the dependence structure generated when creating training and estimation sets to develop these inferential systems. We present resampling plans to remedy these shortcomings and how ensemble learning approaches could strengthen the current methods. Chapter 2 introduces Strong Source Resampling (SSR), a source-aware resampling plan for the common source problem. This idea is extended to Weak Source Resampling (WSR) in Chapter 4. These resampling plans are the basis for developing base systems combined into a final value of evidence using an ensemble learning approach proposed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 focuses on the specific source problem, introducing synthetic source anchoring, which uses synthetic items as data augmentation, allowing the development of specific source score likelihood ratios. Lastly, Chapter 4 introduces discrepancy metrics for score likelihood ratio-based inference that can be used to study model misspecification and the effects of not accounting for dependence. Simulation results and applications in both chapters suggest that combining ensemble learning with a source-aware resampling could provide stronger, more stable statistical evidence value in the correct direction for machine learning and simple score-based likelihood ratios. Chapter 5 provides general conclusions and some avenues for further research
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format doctoralThesis
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identifier_str_mv POS_FUL_2019_1_1008440
instacron_str Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
institution Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
instname_str Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
language eng
network_acronym_str REDI
network_name_str REDI
oai_identifier_str oai:redi.anii.org.uy:20.500.12381/4051
publishDate 2024
reponame_str REDI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv jmaldini@anii.org.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv REDI - Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovación
repository_id_str 9421
rights_invalid_str_mv Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional. (CC BY)
Acceso abierto
spelling Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional. (CC BY)Acceso abiertoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2025-06-03T14:39:16Z2025-06-03T14:39:16Z2024-12https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/4051POS_FUL_2019_1_1008440https://doi.org/10.31274/td-20250502-145This dissertation addresses source attribution problems, an inferential task that contrasts two opposing propositions regarding the origin of items. These inferential problems arise in multiple domains but play a key role in forensic science. Due to the complexity of evidence found in practical applications, machine learning has been proposed as an alternative to evaluate the similarity between items when a probabilistic model is not feasible to construct a traditional Likelihood ratio. Score-based likelihood ratio inference hence provides an alternative framework to assess the strength of statistical evidence in this context. Our work focuses on the common and specific source inferential problems and addresses the dependence structure generated when creating training and estimation sets to develop these inferential systems. We present resampling plans to remedy these shortcomings and how ensemble learning approaches could strengthen the current methods. Chapter 2 introduces Strong Source Resampling (SSR), a source-aware resampling plan for the common source problem. This idea is extended to Weak Source Resampling (WSR) in Chapter 4. These resampling plans are the basis for developing base systems combined into a final value of evidence using an ensemble learning approach proposed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 focuses on the specific source problem, introducing synthetic source anchoring, which uses synthetic items as data augmentation, allowing the development of specific source score likelihood ratios. Lastly, Chapter 4 introduces discrepancy metrics for score likelihood ratio-based inference that can be used to study model misspecification and the effects of not accounting for dependence. Simulation results and applications in both chapters suggest that combining ensemble learning with a source-aware resampling could provide stronger, more stable statistical evidence value in the correct direction for machine learning and simple score-based likelihood ratios. Chapter 5 provides general conclusions and some avenues for further researchAgencia Nacional de Investigación e InnovaciónBecas de Posgrado FulbrightengIowa State Universityhttps://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/dv6lp7XzCommon source problemForensic StatisticsScore Likelihood RatiosSource attributionSpecific source problemCiencias Naturales y ExactasMatemáticasEstadística y ProbabilidadMatemática AplicadaResampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problemsTesis de doctoradoPublicadoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis//Ciencias Naturales y Exactas/Matemáticas/Estadística y Probabilidad//Ciencias Naturales y Exactas/Matemáticas/Matemática Aplicadareponame:REDIinstname:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovacióninstacron:Agencia Nacional de Investigación e InnovaciónVeneri Guarch, Federico A.Ommen, Danica M.LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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- Agencia Nacional de Investigación e Innovaciónfalse
spellingShingle Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
Veneri Guarch, Federico A.
Common source problem
Forensic Statistics
Score Likelihood Ratios
Source attribution
Specific source problem
Ciencias Naturales y Exactas
Matemáticas
Estadística y Probabilidad
Matemática Aplicada
status_str publishedVersion
title Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
title_full Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
title_fullStr Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
title_full_unstemmed Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
title_short Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
title_sort Resampling methods for score likelihood ratio based inference for source attribution problems
topic Common source problem
Forensic Statistics
Score Likelihood Ratios
Source attribution
Specific source problem
Ciencias Naturales y Exactas
Matemáticas
Estadística y Probabilidad
Matemática Aplicada
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/4051
https://doi.org/10.31274/td-20250502-145