Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.

RESQUÍN, F. - DUQUE-LAZO, J. - ACOSTA-MUÑÓZ, C. - RACHID, C. - CARRASCO-LETELIER, L. - NAVARRO-CERRILLO, R.M.

Resumen:

ABSTRACT.Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have dierences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for dierent climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater eect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).


Detalles Bibliográficos
2020
Biomod2
Species distribution models
Habitat
Climatic change
EUCALYPTUS
Inglés
Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria
AINFO
http://www.ainfo.inia.uy/consulta/busca?b=pc&id=61292&biblioteca=vazio&busca=61292&qFacets=61292
Acceso abierto
_version_ 1805580531525484544
author RESQUÍN, F.
author2 DUQUE-LAZO, J.
ACOSTA-MUÑÓZ, C.
RACHID, C.
CARRASCO-LETELIER, L.
NAVARRO-CERRILLO, R.M.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author_facet RESQUÍN, F.
DUQUE-LAZO, J.
ACOSTA-MUÑÓZ, C.
RACHID, C.
CARRASCO-LETELIER, L.
NAVARRO-CERRILLO, R.M.
author_role author
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 1e8a73ef92ad696e44f913dfeecd542d
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/1469/1/sword-2022-10-20T22%3a40%3a27.original.xml
collection AINFO
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv RESQUÍN, F.
DUQUE-LAZO, J.
ACOSTA-MUÑÓZ, C.
RACHID, C.
CARRASCO-LETELIER, L.
NAVARRO-CERRILLO, R.M.
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10-21T01:40:27Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10-21T01:40:27Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.date.updated.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10-21T01:40:27Z
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv ABSTRACT.Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have dierences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for dierent climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater eect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://www.ainfo.inia.uy/consulta/busca?b=pc&id=61292&biblioteca=vazio&busca=61292&qFacets=61292
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.rights.es.fl_str_mv Acceso abierto
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:AINFO
instname:Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria
instacron:Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Biomod2
Species distribution models
Habitat
Climatic change
EUCALYPTUS
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
PublishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description ABSTRACT.Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have dierences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for dierent climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater eect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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repository.name.fl_str_mv AINFO - Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria
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spelling 2022-10-21T01:40:27Z2022-10-21T01:40:27Z20202022-10-21T01:40:27Zhttp://www.ainfo.inia.uy/consulta/busca?b=pc&id=61292&biblioteca=vazio&busca=61292&qFacets=61292ABSTRACT.Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have dierences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for dierent climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater eect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12381/1469enenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAcceso abiertoBiomod2Species distribution modelsHabitatClimatic changeEUCALYPTUSModelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.ArticlePublishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:AINFOinstname:Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuariainstacron:Instituto Nacional de Investigación AgropecuariaRESQUÍN, F.DUQUE-LAZO, J.ACOSTA-MUÑÓZ, C.RACHID, C.CARRASCO-LETELIER, L.NAVARRO-CERRILLO, R.M.SWORDsword-2022-10-20T22:40:27.original.xmlOriginal SWORD entry documentapplication/octet-stream3151https://redi.anii.org.uy/jspui/bitstream/20.500.12381/1469/1/sword-2022-10-20T22%3a40%3a27.original.xml1e8a73ef92ad696e44f913dfeecd542dMD5120.500.12381/14692022-10-20 22:40:27.72oai:redi.anii.org.uy:20.500.12381/1469Gobiernohttp://inia.uyhttps://redi.anii.org.uy/oai/requestlorrego@inia.org.uyUruguayopendoar:2022-10-21T01:40:27AINFO - Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuariafalse
spellingShingle Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
RESQUÍN, F.
Biomod2
Species distribution models
Habitat
Climatic change
EUCALYPTUS
status_str publishedVersion
title Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
title_full Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
title_fullStr Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
title_full_unstemmed Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
title_short Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
title_sort Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay.
topic Biomod2
Species distribution models
Habitat
Climatic change
EUCALYPTUS
url http://www.ainfo.inia.uy/consulta/busca?b=pc&id=61292&biblioteca=vazio&busca=61292&qFacets=61292