Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool

Bock, L. - Lauer, A. - Schlund, M. - Barreiro, Marcelo - Bellouin, N. - Jones, C. - Meehl, G. A. - Predoi, V. - Roberts, M. J. - Eyring, V.

Resumen:

More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2020
Climate change
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/30864
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Bock, L.
author2 Lauer, A.
Schlund, M.
Barreiro, Marcelo
Bellouin, N.
Jones, C.
Meehl, G. A.
Predoi, V.
Roberts, M. J.
Eyring, V.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author_facet Bock, L.
Lauer, A.
Schlund, M.
Barreiro, Marcelo
Bellouin, N.
Jones, C.
Meehl, G. A.
Predoi, V.
Roberts, M. J.
Eyring, V.
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Bock L.
Lauer A.
Schlund M.
Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.
Bellouin N.
Jones C.
Meehl G. A.
Predoi V.
Roberts M. J.
Eyring V.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bock, L.
Lauer, A.
Schlund, M.
Barreiro, Marcelo
Bellouin, N.
Jones, C.
Meehl, G. A.
Predoi, V.
Roberts, M. J.
Eyring, V.
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-02-17T14:33:23Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-02-17T14:33:23Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 28 h.
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dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Bock, L, Lauer, A, Schlund, M, [y otros] "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. [en línea] 2020, 125: e2019JD032321. 28 h. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032321
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1029/2019JD032321
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2169-8996
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/30864
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.en.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2020, 125: e2019JD032321
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.en.fl_str_mv Climate change
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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identifier_str_mv Bock, L, Lauer, A, Schlund, M, [y otros] "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. [en línea] 2020, 125: e2019JD032321. 28 h. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032321
2169-8996
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publishDate 2020
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Bock L.Lauer A.Schlund M.Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.Bellouin N.Jones C.Meehl G. A.Predoi V.Roberts M. J.Eyring V.2022-02-17T14:33:23Z2022-02-17T14:33:23Z2020Bock, L, Lauer, A, Schlund, M, [y otros] "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. [en línea] 2020, 125: e2019JD032321. 28 h. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD0323212169-8996https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3086410.1029/2019JD032321More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.Submitted by Verdun Juan Pablo (jverdun@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-02-09T18:50:03Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 10.10292019JD032321.pdf: 17462474 bytes, checksum: d2f3ccb6bab3dff2e4122499d300e051 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-02-17T11:52:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 10.10292019JD032321.pdf: 17462474 bytes, checksum: d2f3ccb6bab3dff2e4122499d300e051 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2022-02-17T14:33:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 10.10292019JD032321.pdf: 17462474 bytes, checksum: d2f3ccb6bab3dff2e4122499d300e051 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202028 h.application/pdfenengAmerican Geophysical UnionJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2020, 125: e2019JD032321Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Climate changeCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6Earth System Model Evaluation ToolQuantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValToolArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaBock, L.Lauer, A.Schlund, M.Barreiro, MarceloBellouin, N.Jones, C.Meehl, G. A.Predoi, V.Roberts, M. 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
Bock, L.
Climate change
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool
status_str publishedVersion
title Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
title_full Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
title_fullStr Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
title_short Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
title_sort Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
topic Climate change
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Earth System Model Evaluation Tool
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/30864