Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool
Resumen:
More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.
2020 | |
Climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth System Model Evaluation Tool |
|
Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/30864 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
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---|---|
author | Bock, L. |
author2 | Lauer, A. Schlund, M. Barreiro, Marcelo Bellouin, N. Jones, C. Meehl, G. A. Predoi, V. Roberts, M. J. Eyring, V. |
author2_role | author author author author author author author author author |
author_facet | Bock, L. Lauer, A. Schlund, M. Barreiro, Marcelo Bellouin, N. Jones, C. Meehl, G. A. Predoi, V. Roberts, M. J. Eyring, V. |
author_role | author |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Bock L. Lauer A. Schlund M. Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. Bellouin N. Jones C. Meehl G. A. Predoi V. Roberts M. J. Eyring V. |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Bock, L. Lauer, A. Schlund, M. Barreiro, Marcelo Bellouin, N. Jones, C. Meehl, G. A. Predoi, V. Roberts, M. J. Eyring, V. |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-02-17T14:33:23Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-02-17T14:33:23Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2020 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions. |
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 28 h. |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Bock, L, Lauer, A, Schlund, M, [y otros] "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. [en línea] 2020, 125: e2019JD032321. 28 h. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032321 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1029/2019JD032321 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv | 2169-8996 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/30864 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
dc.publisher.en.fl_str_mv | American Geophysical Union |
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2020, 125: e2019JD032321 |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.en.fl_str_mv | Climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth System Model Evaluation Tool |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
description | More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions. |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | article |
id | COLIBRI_ffcadad7924493bd8555b5e5dc02fad7 |
identifier_str_mv | Bock, L, Lauer, A, Schlund, M, [y otros] "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. [en línea] 2020, 125: e2019JD032321. 28 h. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD032321 2169-8996 10.1029/2019JD032321 |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/30864 |
publishDate | 2020 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
spelling | Bock L.Lauer A.Schlund M.Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.Bellouin N.Jones C.Meehl G. A.Predoi V.Roberts M. J.Eyring V.2022-02-17T14:33:23Z2022-02-17T14:33:23Z2020Bock, L, Lauer, A, Schlund, M, [y otros] "Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. [en línea] 2020, 125: e2019JD032321. 28 h. DOI: 10.1029/2019JD0323212169-8996https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3086410.1029/2019JD032321More than 40 model groups worldwide are participating in the Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 6 (CMIP6), providing a new and rich source of information to better understand past,present, and future climate change. Here, we use the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) toassess the performance of the CMIP6 ensemble compared to the previous generations CMIP3 and CMIP5.While CMIP5 models did not capture the observed pause in the increase in global mean surface temperaturebetween 1998 and 2013, the historical CMIP6 simulations agree well with the observed recent temperatureincrease, but some models have difficulties in reproducing the observed global mean surface temperaturerecord of the second half of the twentieth century. While systematic biases in annual mean surfacetemperature and precipitation remain in the CMIP6 multimodel mean, individual models andhigh‐resolution versions of the models show significant reductions in many long‐standing biases. Someimprovements are also found in the vertical temperature, water vapor, and zonal wind speed distributions,and root‐mean‐square errors for selectedfields are generally smaller with reduced intermodel spread andhigher average skill in the correlation patterns relative to observations. An emerging property of the CMIP6ensemble is a higher effective climate sensitivity with an increased range between 2.3 and 5.6 K. A possiblereason for this increase in some models is improvements in cloud representation resulting in strongershortwave cloud feedbacks than in their predecessor versions.Submitted by Verdun Juan Pablo (jverdun@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-02-09T18:50:03Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 10.10292019JD032321.pdf: 17462474 bytes, checksum: d2f3ccb6bab3dff2e4122499d300e051 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-02-17T11:52:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 10.10292019JD032321.pdf: 17462474 bytes, checksum: d2f3ccb6bab3dff2e4122499d300e051 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2022-02-17T14:33:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 10.10292019JD032321.pdf: 17462474 bytes, checksum: d2f3ccb6bab3dff2e4122499d300e051 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202028 h.application/pdfenengAmerican Geophysical UnionJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2020, 125: e2019JD032321Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Climate changeCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6Earth System Model Evaluation ToolQuantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValToolArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaBock, L.Lauer, A.Schlund, M.Barreiro, MarceloBellouin, N.Jones, C.Meehl, G. A.Predoi, V.Roberts, M. 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool Bock, L. Climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth System Model Evaluation Tool |
status_str | publishedVersion |
title | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
title_full | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
title_fullStr | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
title_short | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
title_sort | Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool |
topic | Climate change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Earth System Model Evaluation Tool |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/30864 |