Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America
Resumen:
The increase in solar power generation has a direct impact on the management of the electrical grids, therefore knowing the resource availability for the next few hours and days becomes essential. In this article we present a performance evaluation of the solar predictions provided by the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in different sites of the Pampa Humeda region, located in southeastern South America. It is found that the intraday hourly rRMSD ranges, on average, between 24.8% and 35.5% depending on the forecast horizon. For the daily integrated values, an increasing rRMSD trend between 16.6% and 21.3% is found for 1 to 3 days ahead, respectively. No significant geographical difference of the performance is observed between the sites. The uncertainty of this forecast model is lower than other numerical weather models previously evaluated in the region, which is consistent with international studies in other regions.
| 2021 | |
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Solar forecast NWP GHI ECMWF Pampa Húmeda. |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/31623 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1877554733996048384 |
|---|---|
| author | Teixeira-Branco, Vívian |
| author2 | Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo David, Mathieu |
| author2_role | author author |
| author_facet | Teixeira-Branco, Vívian Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo David, Mathieu |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Teixeira-Branco Vívian, Universidad Tecnológica, Durazno (Uruguay). Laboratorio Solar, ITR-Centro-Sur. Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Laboratorio de Energía Solar. Facultad de Ingeniería David Mathieu, University of La Réunion Saint-Denis (France). PIMENT Laboratory. |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Teixeira-Branco, Vívian Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo David, Mathieu |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-05-19T12:02:11Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-05-19T12:02:11Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2021 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | The increase in solar power generation has a direct impact on the management of the electrical grids, therefore knowing the resource availability for the next few hours and days becomes essential. In this article we present a performance evaluation of the solar predictions provided by the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in different sites of the Pampa Humeda region, located in southeastern South America. It is found that the intraday hourly rRMSD ranges, on average, between 24.8% and 35.5% depending on the forecast horizon. For the daily integrated values, an increasing rRMSD trend between 16.6% and 21.3% is found for 1 to 3 days ahead, respectively. No significant geographical difference of the performance is observed between the sites. The uncertainty of this forecast model is lower than other numerical weather models previously evaluated in the region, which is consistent with international studies in other regions. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 10 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Teixeira-Branco, V., Alonso-Suárez, R. y David, M. Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America. [Preprint] Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2021. Alemania (Congreso Virtual), 25-29 de Octubre, 2021. |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/31623 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | ISES |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2021, Alemania (Congreso Virtual), 25-29 de Octubre, 2021. |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Solar forecast NWP GHI ECMWF Pampa Húmeda. |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Preprint |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion |
| description | The increase in solar power generation has a direct impact on the management of the electrical grids, therefore knowing the resource availability for the next few hours and days becomes essential. In this article we present a performance evaluation of the solar predictions provided by the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in different sites of the Pampa Humeda region, located in southeastern South America. It is found that the intraday hourly rRMSD ranges, on average, between 24.8% and 35.5% depending on the forecast horizon. For the daily integrated values, an increasing rRMSD trend between 16.6% and 21.3% is found for 1 to 3 days ahead, respectively. No significant geographical difference of the performance is observed between the sites. The uncertainty of this forecast model is lower than other numerical weather models previously evaluated in the region, which is consistent with international studies in other regions. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | preprint |
| id | COLIBRI_ff7412447d68bbd9b9253ebdafd3d53a |
| identifier_str_mv | Teixeira-Branco, V., Alonso-Suárez, R. y David, M. Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America. [Preprint] Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2021. Alemania (Congreso Virtual), 25-29 de Octubre, 2021. |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/31623 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | Teixeira-Branco Vívian, Universidad Tecnológica, Durazno (Uruguay). Laboratorio Solar, ITR-Centro-Sur.Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Laboratorio de Energía Solar. Facultad de IngenieríaDavid Mathieu, University of La Réunion Saint-Denis (France). PIMENT Laboratory.2022-05-19T12:02:11Z2022-05-19T12:02:11Z2021Teixeira-Branco, V., Alonso-Suárez, R. y David, M. Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America. [Preprint] Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2021. Alemania (Congreso Virtual), 25-29 de Octubre, 2021.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/31623The increase in solar power generation has a direct impact on the management of the electrical grids, therefore knowing the resource availability for the next few hours and days becomes essential. In this article we present a performance evaluation of the solar predictions provided by the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in different sites of the Pampa Humeda region, located in southeastern South America. It is found that the intraday hourly rRMSD ranges, on average, between 24.8% and 35.5% depending on the forecast horizon. For the daily integrated values, an increasing rRMSD trend between 16.6% and 21.3% is found for 1 to 3 days ahead, respectively. No significant geographical difference of the performance is observed between the sites. The uncertainty of this forecast model is lower than other numerical weather models previously evaluated in the region, which is consistent with international studies in other regions.Submitted by Cabrera Gabriela (gfcabrerarossi@gmail.com) on 2022-05-17T15:18:41Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) TAD21.pdf: 581658 bytes, checksum: 13e521445d6da77de1d02b022b28f182 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2022-05-18T18:45:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) TAD21.pdf: 581658 bytes, checksum: 13e521445d6da77de1d02b022b28f182 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2022-05-19T12:02:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) TAD21.pdf: 581658 bytes, checksum: 13e521445d6da77de1d02b022b28f182 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202110 p.application/pdfenengISESProceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2021, Alemania (Congreso Virtual), 25-29 de Octubre, 2021.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)Solar forecastNWPGHIECMWFPampa Húmeda.Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South AmericaPreprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaTeixeira-Branco, VívianAlonso-Suárez, RodrigoDavid, MathieuLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/31623/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-850http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/31623/2/license_urla006180e3f5b2ad0b88185d14284c0e0MD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America Teixeira-Branco, Vívian Solar forecast NWP GHI ECMWF Pampa Húmeda. |
| status_str | submittedVersion |
| title | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| title_full | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| title_fullStr | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| title_short | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| title_sort | Performance assessment of the ECMWF solar irradiation forecast in the Pampa Húmeda region of South America |
| topic | Solar forecast NWP GHI ECMWF Pampa Húmeda. |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/31623 |
