Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay
Resumen:
Land use change is an important driver of trends in streamflow. However, the effects are often difficult to disentangle from climate effects. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that trends in streamflow can be identified by analysing residuals of rainfall-runoff simulations using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model. This assumes that the rainfall-runoff model removes the average climate forcing from streamflow. The case study involves the Santa Lucía river (Uruguay), the GR4J rainfall-runoff model, three nested catchments ranging from 690 to 4900 km2 and 35 years of observations (1981–2016). Two exogenous variables were considered to influence the streamflow. Using satellite data, growth in forest cover was identified, while the growth in water licenses was obtained from the water authority. Depending on the catchment, effects of land use change differ, with the largest catchment most impacted by afforestation, while the middle size catchment was more influenced by the growth in water licenses.
| 2019 | |
| Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuaria, Uruguay : FPTA-341 | |
|
Statistical hydrology Trend identification Land use change GR4J |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
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https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/7/1433
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/40490 |
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| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1872865287752122368 |
|---|---|
| author | Navas, Rafael |
| author2 | Alonso, Jimena Gorgoglione, Angela Vervoort, R. Willem |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Navas, Rafael Alonso, Jimena Gorgoglione, Angela Vervoort, R. Willem |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Navas Rafael, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria. Alonso Jimena, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Gorgoglione Angela, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Vervoort R. Willem, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia. |
| dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv | Río Santa Lucía, Uruguay |
| dc.coverage.temporal.es.fl_str_mv | 1981–2016 |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Navas, Rafael Alonso, Jimena Gorgoglione, Angela Vervoort, R. Willem |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-09-29T17:44:26Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-09-29T17:44:26Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2019 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Land use change is an important driver of trends in streamflow. However, the effects are often difficult to disentangle from climate effects. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that trends in streamflow can be identified by analysing residuals of rainfall-runoff simulations using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model. This assumes that the rainfall-runoff model removes the average climate forcing from streamflow. The case study involves the Santa Lucía river (Uruguay), the GR4J rainfall-runoff model, three nested catchments ranging from 690 to 4900 km2 and 35 years of observations (1981–2016). Two exogenous variables were considered to influence the streamflow. Using satellite data, growth in forest cover was identified, while the growth in water licenses was obtained from the water authority. Depending on the catchment, effects of land use change differ, with the largest catchment most impacted by afforestation, while the middle size catchment was more influenced by the growth in water licenses. |
| dc.description.sponsorship.none.fl_txt_mv | Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuaria, Uruguay : FPTA-341 |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 15 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Navas, R., Alonso, J., Gorgoglione, A. y otros. "Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay". Water. [en línea]. 2019, vol. 11, no 7, pp. 1-15. DOI: 10.3390/w11071433 |
| dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.3390/w11071433 |
| dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv | 2073-4441 |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/7/1433 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/40490 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | MDPI |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Water, vol. 11, no 7, jul 2019, pp. 1-15. |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Statistical hydrology Trend identification Land use change GR4J |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Land use change is an important driver of trends in streamflow. However, the effects are often difficult to disentangle from climate effects. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that trends in streamflow can be identified by analysing residuals of rainfall-runoff simulations using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model. This assumes that the rainfall-runoff model removes the average climate forcing from streamflow. The case study involves the Santa Lucía river (Uruguay), the GR4J rainfall-runoff model, three nested catchments ranging from 690 to 4900 km2 and 35 years of observations (1981–2016). Two exogenous variables were considered to influence the streamflow. Using satellite data, growth in forest cover was identified, while the growth in water licenses was obtained from the water authority. Depending on the catchment, effects of land use change differ, with the largest catchment most impacted by afforestation, while the middle size catchment was more influenced by the growth in water licenses. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | COLIBRI_f28e4eb63fa479c7e344c584c3e22f57 |
| identifier_str_mv | Navas, R., Alonso, J., Gorgoglione, A. y otros. "Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay". Water. [en línea]. 2019, vol. 11, no 7, pp. 1-15. DOI: 10.3390/w11071433 2073-4441 10.3390/w11071433 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/40490 |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| spelling | Navas Rafael, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria.Alonso Jimena, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Gorgoglione Angela, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Vervoort R. Willem, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.Río Santa Lucía, Uruguay1981–20162023-09-29T17:44:26Z2023-09-29T17:44:26Z2019Navas, R., Alonso, J., Gorgoglione, A. y otros. "Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay". Water. [en línea]. 2019, vol. 11, no 7, pp. 1-15. DOI: 10.3390/w110714332073-4441https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/7/1433https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4049010.3390/w11071433Land use change is an important driver of trends in streamflow. However, the effects are often difficult to disentangle from climate effects. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that trends in streamflow can be identified by analysing residuals of rainfall-runoff simulations using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model. This assumes that the rainfall-runoff model removes the average climate forcing from streamflow. The case study involves the Santa Lucía river (Uruguay), the GR4J rainfall-runoff model, three nested catchments ranging from 690 to 4900 km2 and 35 years of observations (1981–2016). Two exogenous variables were considered to influence the streamflow. Using satellite data, growth in forest cover was identified, while the growth in water licenses was obtained from the water authority. Depending on the catchment, effects of land use change differ, with the largest catchment most impacted by afforestation, while the middle size catchment was more influenced by the growth in water licenses.Submitted by Ribeiro Jorge (jribeiro@fing.edu.uy) on 2023-09-28T12:58:16Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) NAGV19.pdf: 633396 bytes, checksum: ece2fb10e39108b4e5fc395f33ac9b20 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2023-09-29T17:28:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) NAGV19.pdf: 633396 bytes, checksum: ece2fb10e39108b4e5fc395f33ac9b20 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Seroubian Mabel (mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy) on 2023-09-29T17:44:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) NAGV19.pdf: 633396 bytes, checksum: ece2fb10e39108b4e5fc395f33ac9b20 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019Instituto Nacional de Investigacion Agropecuaria, Uruguay : FPTA-34115 p.application/pdfenengMDPIWater, vol. 11, no 7, jul 2019, pp. 1-15.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Statistical hydrologyTrend identificationLand use changeGR4JIdentifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in UruguayArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaNavas, RafaelAlonso, JimenaGorgoglione, AngelaVervoort, R. 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públicahttps://udelar.edu.uy/https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/oai/requestkarina.camps@seciu.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:47712023-09-29T17:44:26COLIBRI - Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay Navas, Rafael Statistical hydrology Trend identification Land use change GR4J |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| title_full | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| title_fullStr | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| title_short | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| title_sort | Identifying climate and human impact trends in streamflow : A case study in Uruguay |
| topic | Statistical hydrology Trend identification Land use change GR4J |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/7/1433 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/40490 |
