Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information

Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo - David, Mathieu - Teixeira-Branco, Vívian - Lauret, Philippe

Resumen:

In this work, three models are built to produce intra-day probabilistic solar forecasts with lead times ranging from 10 min to 3 h with a granularity of 10 min. The first model makes only use of past ground measurements. The second model upgrades the first one by adding a variability metric obtained also from the past ground measurements. The third model takes as additional input the satellite albedo. A non parametric approach based on the linear quantile regression technique is used to generate the set of quantiles that summarize the predictive distributions of the global solar irradiance at a horizontal plane (GHI). The probabilistic models are evaluated on several sites that experience very different climatic conditions. It is shown that incorporating variability significantly reduces the width of interval predictions. The addition of satellite information further improves the quality of the probabilistic forecasts.

Detalles Bibliográficos
2020
GHI
Probabilistic forecast
Probaground measurement
Solar variability
satellite images
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24327
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
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author Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
author2 David, Mathieu
Teixeira-Branco, Vívian
Lauret, Philippe
author2_role author
author
author
author_facet Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
David, Mathieu
Teixeira-Branco, Vívian
Lauret, Philippe
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Laboratorio de Energía Solar.
David Mathieu, University of La Réunion - PIMENT laboratory.
Teixeira-Branco Vívian., Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Laboratorio de Energía Solar
Lauret Philippe, University of La Réunion - PIMENT laboratory.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
David, Mathieu
Teixeira-Branco, Vívian
Lauret, Philippe
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-12T15:30:22Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-12T15:30:22Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv In this work, three models are built to produce intra-day probabilistic solar forecasts with lead times ranging from 10 min to 3 h with a granularity of 10 min. The first model makes only use of past ground measurements. The second model upgrades the first one by adding a variability metric obtained also from the past ground measurements. The third model takes as additional input the satellite albedo. A non parametric approach based on the linear quantile regression technique is used to generate the set of quantiles that summarize the predictive distributions of the global solar irradiance at a horizontal plane (GHI). The probabilistic models are evaluated on several sites that experience very different climatic conditions. It is shown that incorporating variability significantly reduces the width of interval predictions. The addition of satellite information further improves the quality of the probabilistic forecasts.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Alonso-Suárez, R., David, M., Branco, V. y otros. Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information [Preprint] Publicado en : Renewable energy, Vol. 158, Oct. 2020, pp. 554-573. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.05.046.
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24327
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Renewable energy;Vol.158, Oct. 2020, pp. 554-573.
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv GHI
Probabilistic forecast
Probaground measurement
Solar variability
satellite images
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Preprint
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
description In this work, three models are built to produce intra-day probabilistic solar forecasts with lead times ranging from 10 min to 3 h with a granularity of 10 min. The first model makes only use of past ground measurements. The second model upgrades the first one by adding a variability metric obtained also from the past ground measurements. The third model takes as additional input the satellite albedo. A non parametric approach based on the linear quantile regression technique is used to generate the set of quantiles that summarize the predictive distributions of the global solar irradiance at a horizontal plane (GHI). The probabilistic models are evaluated on several sites that experience very different climatic conditions. It is shown that incorporating variability significantly reduces the width of interval predictions. The addition of satellite information further improves the quality of the probabilistic forecasts.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format preprint
id COLIBRI_e3ea0597351474a0f8d958c222ffd9b3
identifier_str_mv Alonso-Suárez, R., David, M., Branco, V. y otros. Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information [Preprint] Publicado en : Renewable energy, Vol. 158, Oct. 2020, pp. 554-573. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.05.046.
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
language_invalid_str_mv en
network_acronym_str COLIBRI
network_name_str COLIBRI
oai_identifier_str oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/24327
publishDate 2020
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
spelling Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Laboratorio de Energía Solar.David Mathieu, University of La Réunion - PIMENT laboratory.Teixeira-Branco Vívian., Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Laboratorio de Energía SolarLauret Philippe, University of La Réunion - PIMENT laboratory.2020-06-12T15:30:22Z2020-06-12T15:30:22Z2020Alonso-Suárez, R., David, M., Branco, V. y otros. Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information [Preprint] Publicado en : Renewable energy, Vol. 158, Oct. 2020, pp. 554-573. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.05.046.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24327In this work, three models are built to produce intra-day probabilistic solar forecasts with lead times ranging from 10 min to 3 h with a granularity of 10 min. The first model makes only use of past ground measurements. The second model upgrades the first one by adding a variability metric obtained also from the past ground measurements. The third model takes as additional input the satellite albedo. A non parametric approach based on the linear quantile regression technique is used to generate the set of quantiles that summarize the predictive distributions of the global solar irradiance at a horizontal plane (GHI). The probabilistic models are evaluated on several sites that experience very different climatic conditions. It is shown that incorporating variability significantly reduces the width of interval predictions. The addition of satellite information further improves the quality of the probabilistic forecasts.Submitted by Cabrera Gabriela (gfcabrerarossi@gmail.com) on 2020-06-10T19:01:37Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) ADBL20.pdf: 775228 bytes, checksum: 919ac93d98f405ae018ef41c4852e8b3 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2020-06-12T15:19:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) ADBL20.pdf: 775228 bytes, checksum: 919ac93d98f405ae018ef41c4852e8b3 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@fic.edu.uy) on 2020-06-12T15:30:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) ADBL20.pdf: 775228 bytes, checksum: 919ac93d98f405ae018ef41c4852e8b3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020application/pdfenengElsevierRenewable energy;Vol.158, Oct. 2020, pp. 554-573.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
GHI
Probabilistic forecast
Probaground measurement
Solar variability
satellite images
status_str submittedVersion
title Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
title_full Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
title_fullStr Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
title_full_unstemmed Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
title_short Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
title_sort Intra-day solar probabilistic forecasts including local short-term variability and satellite information
topic GHI
Probabilistic forecast
Probaground measurement
Solar variability
satellite images
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24327