Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

Zhao, Qi - Guo, Yuming - Ye, Tingting - Gasparrini, Antonio - Colistro, Valentina

Resumen:

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Detalles Bibliográficos
2021
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
FRÍO
CALOR
TEMPERATURA
MORTALIDAD
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/55461
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Zhao, Qi
author2 Guo, Yuming
Ye, Tingting
Gasparrini, Antonio
Colistro, Valentina
author2_role author
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author
author
author_facet Zhao, Qi
Guo, Yuming
Ye, Tingting
Gasparrini, Antonio
Colistro, Valentina
author_role author
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dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Zhao Qi, Shandong University (China). Cheeloo College of Medicine. School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology; Monash University (Australia). School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Guo Yuming, Monash University (Australia). School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine and Climate, Air Quality Research Unit
Ye Tingting, Monash University (Australia). School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine and Climate, Air Quality Research Unit
Gasparrini Antonio, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Reino Unido). Department of Public Health, Environments and Society and Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health
Colistro Valentina, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos
dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv AUSTRALIA
dc.coverage.temporal.es.fl_str_mv 2000 - 2019
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Zhao, Qi
Guo, Yuming
Ye, Tingting
Gasparrini, Antonio
Colistro, Valentina
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2026-06-11T15:58:54Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2026-06-11T15:58:54Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv Qi Zhao 1, Yuming Guo 2, Tingting Ye 3, Antonio Gasparrini 4, Shilu Tong 5, Ala Overcenco 6, Aleš Urban 7, Alexandra Schneider 8, Alireza Entezari 9, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 10, Antonella Zanobetti 11, Antonis Analitis 12, Ariana Zeka 13, Aurelio Tobias 14, Baltazar Nunes 15, Barrak Alahmad 11, Ben Armstrong 16, Bertil Forsberg 17, Shih-Chun Pan 18, Carmen Íñiguez 19, Caroline Ameling 20, César De la Cruz Valencia 21, Christofer Åström 17, Danny Houthuijs 20, Do Van Dung 22, Dominic Royé 23, Ene Indermitte 24, Eric Lavigne 25, Fatemeh Mayvaneh 9, Fiorella Acquaotta 26, Francesca de'Donato 27, Francesco Di Ruscio 28, Francesco Sera 29, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar 30, Haidong Kan 31, Hans Orru 24, Ho Kim 32, Iulian-Horia Holobaca 33, Jan Kyselý 7, Joana Madureira 34, Joel Schwartz 11, Jouni J K Jaakkola 35, Klea Katsouyanni 36, Magali Hurtado Diaz 21, Martina S Ragettli 37, Masahiro Hashizume 38, Mathilde Pascal 39, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho 40, Nicolás Valdés Ortega 41, Niilo Ryti 42, Noah Scovronick 43, Paola Michelozzi 27, Patricia Matus Correa 41, Patrick Goodman 44, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva 40, Rosana Abrutzky 45, Samuel Osorio 46, Shilpa Rao 28, Simona Fratianni 26, Tran Ngoc Dang 22, Valentina Colistro 47, Veronika Huber 48, Whanhee Lee 49, Xerxes Seposo 50, Yasushi Honda 51, Yue Leon Guo 52, Michelle L Bell 49, Shanshan Li 53
Affiliations 1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 2Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: yuming.guo@monash.edu. 3Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 4Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. 5Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia. 6Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Moldova. 7Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic. 8Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany. 9Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran. 10Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 11Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. 12Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece. 13Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK. 14Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan. 15Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal. 16Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. 17Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. 18National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan. 19Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain. 20Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands. 21Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico. 22Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 23CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain. 24Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia. 25School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 26Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy. 27Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy. 28Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway. 29Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Florence, Italy. 30Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA. 31Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. 32Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. 33Faculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. 34Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit, Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal. 35Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland. 36Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK. 37Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. 38Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. 39Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France. 40Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. 41Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile. 42Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland. 43Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. 44School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland. 45Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina. 46Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. 47Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay. 48Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain. 49School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. 50School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan. 51Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan. 52National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, NTU College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan. 53Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: shanshan.li@monash.edu.
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dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Zhao Q, Guo Y, Ye T y otros. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health [en línea]. 2021;5(7):415-425
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 2542-5196
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/55461
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv The Lancet. Planetary health. 2021;5(7):415-425
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.other.es.fl_str_mv CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
FRÍO
CALOR
TEMPERATURA
MORTALIDAD
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Qi Zhao 1, Yuming Guo 2, Tingting Ye 3, Antonio Gasparrini 4, Shilu Tong 5, Ala Overcenco 6, Aleš Urban 7, Alexandra Schneider 8, Alireza Entezari 9, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 10, Antonella Zanobetti 11, Antonis Analitis 12, Ariana Zeka 13, Aurelio Tobias 14, Baltazar Nunes 15, Barrak Alahmad 11, Ben Armstrong 16, Bertil Forsberg 17, Shih-Chun Pan 18, Carmen Íñiguez 19, Caroline Ameling 20, César De la Cruz Valencia 21, Christofer Åström 17, Danny Houthuijs 20, Do Van Dung 22, Dominic Royé 23, Ene Indermitte 24, Eric Lavigne 25, Fatemeh Mayvaneh 9, Fiorella Acquaotta 26, Francesca de'Donato 27, Francesco Di Ruscio 28, Francesco Sera 29, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar 30, Haidong Kan 31, Hans Orru 24, Ho Kim 32, Iulian-Horia Holobaca 33, Jan Kyselý 7, Joana Madureira 34, Joel Schwartz 11, Jouni J K Jaakkola 35, Klea Katsouyanni 36, Magali Hurtado Diaz 21, Martina S Ragettli 37, Masahiro Hashizume 38, Mathilde Pascal 39, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho 40, Nicolás Valdés Ortega 41, Niilo Ryti 42, Noah Scovronick 43, Paola Michelozzi 27, Patricia Matus Correa 41, Patrick Goodman 44, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva 40, Rosana Abrutzky 45, Samuel Osorio 46, Shilpa Rao 28, Simona Fratianni 26, Tran Ngoc Dang 22, Valentina Colistro 47, Veronika Huber 48, Whanhee Lee 49, Xerxes Seposo 50, Yasushi Honda 51, Yue Leon Guo 52, Michelle L Bell 49, Shanshan Li 53
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identifier_str_mv Zhao Q, Guo Y, Ye T y otros. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health [en línea]. 2021;5(7):415-425
10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-4
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rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Zhao Qi, Shandong University (China). Cheeloo College of Medicine. School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology; Monash University (Australia). School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive MedicineGuo Yuming, Monash University (Australia). School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine and Climate, Air Quality Research UnitYe Tingting, Monash University (Australia). School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine. Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine and Climate, Air Quality Research UnitGasparrini Antonio, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Reino Unido). Department of Public Health, Environments and Society and Centre on Climate Change and Planetary HealthColistro Valentina, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Métodos CuantitativosAUSTRALIA2000 - 20192026-06-11T15:58:54Z2026-06-11T15:58:54Z2021Zhao Q, Guo Y, Ye T y otros. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. The Lancet. Planetary health [en línea]. 2021;5(7):415-425https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/5546110.1016/S2542-5196(21)00081-42542-5196Qi Zhao 1, Yuming Guo 2, Tingting Ye 3, Antonio Gasparrini 4, Shilu Tong 5, Ala Overcenco 6, Aleš Urban 7, Alexandra Schneider 8, Alireza Entezari 9, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 10, Antonella Zanobetti 11, Antonis Analitis 12, Ariana Zeka 13, Aurelio Tobias 14, Baltazar Nunes 15, Barrak Alahmad 11, Ben Armstrong 16, Bertil Forsberg 17, Shih-Chun Pan 18, Carmen Íñiguez 19, Caroline Ameling 20, César De la Cruz Valencia 21, Christofer Åström 17, Danny Houthuijs 20, Do Van Dung 22, Dominic Royé 23, Ene Indermitte 24, Eric Lavigne 25, Fatemeh Mayvaneh 9, Fiorella Acquaotta 26, Francesca de'Donato 27, Francesco Di Ruscio 28, Francesco Sera 29, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar 30, Haidong Kan 31, Hans Orru 24, Ho Kim 32, Iulian-Horia Holobaca 33, Jan Kyselý 7, Joana Madureira 34, Joel Schwartz 11, Jouni J K Jaakkola 35, Klea Katsouyanni 36, Magali Hurtado Diaz 21, Martina S Ragettli 37, Masahiro Hashizume 38, Mathilde Pascal 39, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho 40, Nicolás Valdés Ortega 41, Niilo Ryti 42, Noah Scovronick 43, Paola Michelozzi 27, Patricia Matus Correa 41, Patrick Goodman 44, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva 40, Rosana Abrutzky 45, Samuel Osorio 46, Shilpa Rao 28, Simona Fratianni 26, Tran Ngoc Dang 22, Valentina Colistro 47, Veronika Huber 48, Whanhee Lee 49, Xerxes Seposo 50, Yasushi Honda 51, Yue Leon Guo 52, Michelle L Bell 49, Shanshan Li 53Affiliations 1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 2Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: yuming.guo@monash.edu. 3Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. 4Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. 5Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia. 6Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Moldova. 7Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic. 8Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany. 9Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran. 10Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 11Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA. 12Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece. 13Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK. 14Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan. 15Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal. 16Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. 17Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. 18National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan. 19Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain. 20Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands. 21Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico. 22Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. 23CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain. 24Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia. 25School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 26Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy. 27Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy. 28Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway. 29Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Florence, Italy. 30Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA. 31Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. 32Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. 33Faculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. 34Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit, Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal. 35Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland. 36Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK. 37Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. 38Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. 39Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France. 40Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. 41Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile. 42Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland. 43Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. 44School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland. 45Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina. 46Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. 47Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay. 48Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain. 49School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. 50School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan. 51Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan. 52National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, NTU College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan. 53Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: shanshan.li@monash.edu.Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.Submitted by Almiñana María Cecilia (marialminana@gmail.com) on 2026-06-11T14:11:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 25630 bytes, checksum: e7132498e7c1fe99f7096667baa99b25 (MD5) Global regional and national burden of mortality.pdf: 8740006 bytes, checksum: 27116a520d71ff8ee024de6f2aefc411 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Almiñana María Cecilia (marialminana@gmail.com) on 2026-06-11T15:21:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 25630 bytes, checksum: e7132498e7c1fe99f7096667baa99b25 (MD5) Global regional and national burden of mortality.pdf: 8740006 bytes, checksum: 27116a520d71ff8ee024de6f2aefc411 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2026-06-11T15:58:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 25630 bytes, checksum: e7132498e7c1fe99f7096667baa99b25 (MD5) Global regional and national burden of mortality.pdf: 8740006 bytes, checksum: 27116a520d71ff8ee024de6f2aefc411 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202111 p.application/pdfenengElsevierThe Lancet. Planetary health. 2021;5(7):415-425Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)CAMBIO CLIMÁTICOFRÍOCALORTEMPERATURAMORTALIDADGlobal, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling studyArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaZhao, QiGuo, YumingYe, TingtingGasparrini, AntonioColistro, ValentinaLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/55461/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/55461/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
Zhao, Qi
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
FRÍO
CALOR
TEMPERATURA
MORTALIDAD
status_str publishedVersion
title Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
title_full Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
title_fullStr Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
title_full_unstemmed Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
title_short Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
title_sort Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
topic CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
FRÍO
CALOR
TEMPERATURA
MORTALIDAD
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/55461