Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
Resumen:
Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. Interpretation: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
| 2021 | |
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CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO FRÍO CALOR TEMPERATURA MORTALIDAD |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/55461 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| Sumario: | Qi Zhao 1, Yuming Guo 2, Tingting Ye 3, Antonio Gasparrini 4, Shilu Tong 5, Ala Overcenco 6, Aleš Urban 7, Alexandra Schneider 8, Alireza Entezari 9, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 10, Antonella Zanobetti 11, Antonis Analitis 12, Ariana Zeka 13, Aurelio Tobias 14, Baltazar Nunes 15, Barrak Alahmad 11, Ben Armstrong 16, Bertil Forsberg 17, Shih-Chun Pan 18, Carmen Íñiguez 19, Caroline Ameling 20, César De la Cruz Valencia 21, Christofer Åström 17, Danny Houthuijs 20, Do Van Dung 22, Dominic Royé 23, Ene Indermitte 24, Eric Lavigne 25, Fatemeh Mayvaneh 9, Fiorella Acquaotta 26, Francesca de'Donato 27, Francesco Di Ruscio 28, Francesco Sera 29, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar 30, Haidong Kan 31, Hans Orru 24, Ho Kim 32, Iulian-Horia Holobaca 33, Jan Kyselý 7, Joana Madureira 34, Joel Schwartz 11, Jouni J K Jaakkola 35, Klea Katsouyanni 36, Magali Hurtado Diaz 21, Martina S Ragettli 37, Masahiro Hashizume 38, Mathilde Pascal 39, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho 40, Nicolás Valdés Ortega 41, Niilo Ryti 42, Noah Scovronick 43, Paola Michelozzi 27, Patricia Matus Correa 41, Patrick Goodman 44, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva 40, Rosana Abrutzky 45, Samuel Osorio 46, Shilpa Rao 28, Simona Fratianni 26, Tran Ngoc Dang 22, Valentina Colistro 47, Veronika Huber 48, Whanhee Lee 49, Xerxes Seposo 50, Yasushi Honda 51, Yue Leon Guo 52, Michelle L Bell 49, Shanshan Li 53 |
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