Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
Resumen:
The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated.
2021 | |
Madden–Julian oscillation MJO Weather predictions |
|
Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34078 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
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---|---|
author | Silini, Riccardo |
author2 | Barreiro, Marcelo Masoller, Cristina |
author2_role | author author |
author_facet | Silini, Riccardo Barreiro, Marcelo Masoller, Cristina |
author_role | author |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Silini Riccardo, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. Masoller Cristina, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Silini, Riccardo Barreiro, Marcelo Masoller, Cristina |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-10-11T13:04:34Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-10-11T13:04:34Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2021 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated. |
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 7 h |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Silini, R, Barreiro, M y Masoller, C. "Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. [en línea] 2021, 4: 57. 7 h. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6. |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv | 2397-3722 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34078 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Springer Nature |
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021, 4: 57 |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Madden–Julian oscillation MJO Weather predictions |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
description | The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated. |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | article |
id | COLIBRI_bfe964c430c39a45e28bd85234fcbcc7 |
identifier_str_mv | Silini, R, Barreiro, M y Masoller, C. "Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. [en línea] 2021, 4: 57. 7 h. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6. 2397-3722 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6 |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/34078 |
publishDate | 2021 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
spelling | Silini Riccardo, Universitat Politècnica de CatalunyaBarreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.Masoller Cristina, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya2022-10-11T13:04:34Z2022-10-11T13:04:34Z2021Silini, R, Barreiro, M y Masoller, C. "Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. [en línea] 2021, 4: 57. 7 h. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6.2397-3722https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3407810.1038/s41612-021-00214-6The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated.Submitted by Parodi Mónica (mparodi@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-09-27T15:24:20Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101038s41612021002146.pdf: 1409088 bytes, checksum: 45bab1f5371f1f718d2857d1ff23e9ad (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-10-11T12:52:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101038s41612021002146.pdf: 1409088 bytes, checksum: 45bab1f5371f1f718d2857d1ff23e9ad (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2022-10-11T13:04:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101038s41612021002146.pdf: 1409088 bytes, checksum: 45bab1f5371f1f718d2857d1ff23e9ad (MD5) Previous issue date: 20217 happlication/pdfenengSpringer Naturenpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021, 4: 57Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation Silini, Riccardo Madden–Julian oscillation MJO Weather predictions |
status_str | publishedVersion |
title | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
title_full | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
title_fullStr | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
title_short | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
title_sort | Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation |
topic | Madden–Julian oscillation MJO Weather predictions |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34078 |