Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation

Silini, Riccardo - Barreiro, Marcelo - Masoller, Cristina

Resumen:

The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2021
Madden–Julian oscillation
MJO
Weather predictions
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34078
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Silini, Riccardo
author2 Barreiro, Marcelo
Masoller, Cristina
author2_role author
author
author_facet Silini, Riccardo
Barreiro, Marcelo
Masoller, Cristina
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Silini Riccardo, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.
Masoller Cristina, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Silini, Riccardo
Barreiro, Marcelo
Masoller, Cristina
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10-11T13:04:34Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2022-10-11T13:04:34Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 7 h
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Silini, R, Barreiro, M y Masoller, C. "Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. [en línea] 2021, 4: 57. 7 h. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6.
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2397-3722
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34078
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021, 4: 57
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Madden–Julian oscillation
MJO
Weather predictions
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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identifier_str_mv Silini, R, Barreiro, M y Masoller, C. "Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. [en línea] 2021, 4: 57. 7 h. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6.
2397-3722
10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
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publishDate 2021
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Silini Riccardo, Universitat Politècnica de CatalunyaBarreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.Masoller Cristina, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya2022-10-11T13:04:34Z2022-10-11T13:04:34Z2021Silini, R, Barreiro, M y Masoller, C. "Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation". npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. [en línea] 2021, 4: 57. 7 h. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6.2397-3722https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3407810.1038/s41612-021-00214-6The socioeconomic impact of weather extremes draws the attention of researchers to the development of novel methodologies to make more accurate weather predictions. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical atmosphere on sub-seasonal time scales, and can promote or enhance extreme events in both, the tropics and the extratropics. Forecasting extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging due to a poor understanding of the phenomena that can increase predictability on this time scale. Here we show that two artificial neural networks (ANNs), a feed-forward neural network and a recurrent neural network, allow a very competitive MJO prediction. While our average prediction skill is about 26–27 days (which competes with that obtained with most computationally demanding state-of-the-art climate models), for some initial phases and seasons the ANNs have a prediction skill of 60 days or longer. Furthermore, we show that the ANNs have a good ability to predict the MJO phase, but the amplitude is underestimated.Submitted by Parodi Mónica (mparodi@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-09-27T15:24:20Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101038s41612021002146.pdf: 1409088 bytes, checksum: 45bab1f5371f1f718d2857d1ff23e9ad (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-10-11T12:52:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101038s41612021002146.pdf: 1409088 bytes, checksum: 45bab1f5371f1f718d2857d1ff23e9ad (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2022-10-11T13:04:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101038s41612021002146.pdf: 1409088 bytes, checksum: 45bab1f5371f1f718d2857d1ff23e9ad (MD5) Previous issue date: 20217 happlication/pdfenengSpringer Naturenpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021, 4: 57Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
Silini, Riccardo
Madden–Julian oscillation
MJO
Weather predictions
status_str publishedVersion
title Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
title_full Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
title_fullStr Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
title_full_unstemmed Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
title_short Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
title_sort Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation
topic Madden–Julian oscillation
MJO
Weather predictions
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34078