Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator

Maciel, Fernanda - Terra, Rafael - Chaer, Ruben

Resumen:

The Electric Power System Simulator (SimSEE) is a model that optimizes and simulates the operation of an electric system and has been widely used to analyze the integrated power system in Uruguay. Among the stochastic processes that SimSEE needs to represent are the streamflow inputs to the hydroelectric dams, which constitute a key factor for both energy dispatches and mid-term planning. A dominant feature of streamflow time series is that they show very high interannual variability, which represents a major uncertainty for energy operation in Uruguay. Part of this variability is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In this work, a climate index associated with ENSO is incorporated to the stochastic generator of streamflow series used by the SimSEE. Forty six-month-long simulations are performed with and without such modifications. We find that the system operator can take advantage of the ENSO-related information incorporated to SinSEE in 65% of the cases (semesters) considered, reducing the total costs of operation. This result still holds in a scenario with larger firm capacity. The amounts saved, however, are reduced as the firm capacity increases. The enhanced generation options associated with a larger firm capacity diminish the overall costs of generation, especially in times of low streamflow, rendering the savings associated with a more efficient management of the reservoir less significant. Keywords : economic impact, electric system simulator, ENSO, stochastic process, streamflow representation


Detalles Bibliográficos
2015
Potencia
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42670
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
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author Maciel, Fernanda
author2 Terra, Rafael
Chaer, Ruben
author2_role author
author
author_facet Maciel, Fernanda
Terra, Rafael
Chaer, Ruben
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Maciel, Fernanda
Terra, Rafael
Chaer, Ruben
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-02-26T19:52:33Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-02-26T19:52:33Z
dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv 2015
dc.date.submitted.es.fl_str_mv 20240223
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv The Electric Power System Simulator (SimSEE) is a model that optimizes and simulates the operation of an electric system and has been widely used to analyze the integrated power system in Uruguay. Among the stochastic processes that SimSEE needs to represent are the streamflow inputs to the hydroelectric dams, which constitute a key factor for both energy dispatches and mid-term planning. A dominant feature of streamflow time series is that they show very high interannual variability, which represents a major uncertainty for energy operation in Uruguay. Part of this variability is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In this work, a climate index associated with ENSO is incorporated to the stochastic generator of streamflow series used by the SimSEE. Forty six-month-long simulations are performed with and without such modifications. We find that the system operator can take advantage of the ENSO-related information incorporated to SinSEE in 65% of the cases (semesters) considered, reducing the total costs of operation. This result still holds in a scenario with larger firm capacity. The amounts saved, however, are reduced as the firm capacity increases. The enhanced generation options associated with a larger firm capacity diminish the overall costs of generation, especially in times of low streamflow, rendering the savings associated with a more efficient management of the reservoir less significant. Keywords : economic impact, electric system simulator, ENSO, stochastic process, streamflow representation
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Maciel, F, Terra, R, Chaer, R. "Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator". International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4269
dc.identifier.doi.es.fl_str_mv 10.1002/joc.4269
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42670
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv RmetS
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv International Journal of Climatology, 2015
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.other.es.fl_str_mv Potencia
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description The Electric Power System Simulator (SimSEE) is a model that optimizes and simulates the operation of an electric system and has been widely used to analyze the integrated power system in Uruguay. Among the stochastic processes that SimSEE needs to represent are the streamflow inputs to the hydroelectric dams, which constitute a key factor for both energy dispatches and mid-term planning. A dominant feature of streamflow time series is that they show very high interannual variability, which represents a major uncertainty for energy operation in Uruguay. Part of this variability is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In this work, a climate index associated with ENSO is incorporated to the stochastic generator of streamflow series used by the SimSEE. Forty six-month-long simulations are performed with and without such modifications. We find that the system operator can take advantage of the ENSO-related information incorporated to SinSEE in 65% of the cases (semesters) considered, reducing the total costs of operation. This result still holds in a scenario with larger firm capacity. The amounts saved, however, are reduced as the firm capacity increases. The enhanced generation options associated with a larger firm capacity diminish the overall costs of generation, especially in times of low streamflow, rendering the savings associated with a more efficient management of the reservoir less significant. Keywords : economic impact, electric system simulator, ENSO, stochastic process, streamflow representation
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identifier_str_mv Maciel, F, Terra, R, Chaer, R. "Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator". International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4269
10.1002/joc.4269
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publishDate 2015
reponame_str COLIBRI
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repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
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rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
spelling 2024-02-26T19:52:33Z2024-02-26T19:52:33Z201520240223Maciel, F, Terra, R, Chaer, R. "Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator". International Journal of Climatology, 35, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4269https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4267010.1002/joc.4269The Electric Power System Simulator (SimSEE) is a model that optimizes and simulates the operation of an electric system and has been widely used to analyze the integrated power system in Uruguay. Among the stochastic processes that SimSEE needs to represent are the streamflow inputs to the hydroelectric dams, which constitute a key factor for both energy dispatches and mid-term planning. A dominant feature of streamflow time series is that they show very high interannual variability, which represents a major uncertainty for energy operation in Uruguay. Part of this variability is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In this work, a climate index associated with ENSO is incorporated to the stochastic generator of streamflow series used by the SimSEE. Forty six-month-long simulations are performed with and without such modifications. We find that the system operator can take advantage of the ENSO-related information incorporated to SinSEE in 65% of the cases (semesters) considered, reducing the total costs of operation. This result still holds in a scenario with larger firm capacity. The amounts saved, however, are reduced as the firm capacity increases. The enhanced generation options associated with a larger firm capacity diminish the overall costs of generation, especially in times of low streamflow, rendering the savings associated with a more efficient management of the reservoir less significant. Keywords : economic impact, electric system simulator, ENSO, stochastic process, streamflow representationMade available in DSpace on 2024-02-26T19:52:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 5 MTC15.pdf: 537353 bytes, checksum: 6640814efaeca3ac8cc99bc75482ba90 (MD5) license_text: 21936 bytes, checksum: 9833653f73f7853880c94a6fead477b1 (MD5) license_url: 49 bytes, checksum: 4afdbb8c545fd630ea7db775da747b2f (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) license.txt: 4244 bytes, checksum: 528b6a3c8c7d0c6e28129d576e989607 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015enengRmetSInternational Journal of Climatology, 2015Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad De La República. (Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)PotenciaEconomic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulatorArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaMaciel, FernandaTerra, RafaelChaer, RubenPotenciaEnergía 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spellingShingle Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
Maciel, Fernanda
Potencia
status_str publishedVersion
title Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
title_full Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
title_fullStr Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
title_full_unstemmed Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
title_short Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
title_sort Economic impact of considering El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the representation of streamflow in an electric system simulator
topic Potencia
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42670