East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia

Huan Zhang - Werner, Johannes P. - García-Bustamante, Elena - González-Rouco, Fidel - Wagner, Sebastián - Zorita, Eduardo - Fraedrich, Klaus - Jungclaus, Johann H. - Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier - Xiuhua Zhu - Xoplaki, Elena - Fahu Chen - Jianping Duan - Quansheng Ge - Zhixin Hao - Ivanov, Martin - Schneider, Lea - Talento, Stefanie - Jianglin Wang - Bao, Yang - Luterbacher, Jürg

Resumen:

East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2018
Temperature variations
Climate model
East Asia temperature
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/21999
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0)
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author Huan Zhang
author2 Werner, Johannes P.
García-Bustamante, Elena
González-Rouco, Fidel
Wagner, Sebastián
Zorita, Eduardo
Fraedrich, Klaus
Jungclaus, Johann H.
Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
Xiuhua Zhu
Xoplaki, Elena
Fahu Chen
Jianping Duan
Quansheng Ge
Zhixin Hao
Ivanov, Martin
Schneider, Lea
Talento, Stefanie
Jianglin Wang
Bao, Yang
Luterbacher, Jürg
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author_facet Huan Zhang
Werner, Johannes P.
García-Bustamante, Elena
González-Rouco, Fidel
Wagner, Sebastián
Zorita, Eduardo
Fraedrich, Klaus
Jungclaus, Johann H.
Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
Xiuhua Zhu
Xoplaki, Elena
Fahu Chen
Jianping Duan
Quansheng Ge
Zhixin Hao
Ivanov, Martin
Schneider, Lea
Talento, Stefanie
Jianglin Wang
Bao, Yang
Luterbacher, Jürg
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.es.fl_str_mv Talento, Stefanie. Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Huan Zhang
Werner, Johannes P.
García-Bustamante, Elena
González-Rouco, Fidel
Wagner, Sebastián
Zorita, Eduardo
Fraedrich, Klaus
Jungclaus, Johann H.
Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
Xiuhua Zhu
Xoplaki, Elena
Fahu Chen
Jianping Duan
Quansheng Ge
Zhixin Hao
Ivanov, Martin
Schneider, Lea
Talento, Stefanie
Jianglin Wang
Bao, Yang
Luterbacher, Jürg
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2019-10-02T22:08:21Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2019-10-02T22:08:21Z
dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.date.submitted.es.fl_str_mv 20190930
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.
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dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Zhang, H., y otros. "East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia". Scientific Reports, 2018, 8: 7702. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 
dc.identifier.doi.es.fl_str_mv 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 
dc.identifier.issn.es.fl_str_mv 2045-2322
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/21999
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Scientific Reports, 2018, 8, art. no. 7702
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Temperature variations
Climate model
East Asia temperature
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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identifier_str_mv Zhang, H., y otros. "East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia". Scientific Reports, 2018, 8: 7702. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 
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10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 
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publishDate 2018
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0)
spelling Talento, Stefanie. Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2019-10-02T22:08:21Z2019-10-02T22:08:21Z201820190930Zhang, H., y otros. "East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia". Scientific Reports, 2018, 8: 7702. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 2045-2322https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/2199910.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.Made available in DSpace on 2019-10-02T22:08:21Z (GMT). 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
Huan Zhang
Temperature variations
Climate model
East Asia temperature
status_str publishedVersion
title East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
title_full East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
title_fullStr East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
title_full_unstemmed East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
title_short East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
title_sort East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
topic Temperature variations
Climate model
East Asia temperature
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/21999