East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia
Resumen:
East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.
2018 | |
Temperature variations Climate model East Asia temperature |
|
Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/21999 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0) |
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---|---|
author | Huan Zhang |
author2 | Werner, Johannes P. García-Bustamante, Elena González-Rouco, Fidel Wagner, Sebastián Zorita, Eduardo Fraedrich, Klaus Jungclaus, Johann H. Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Xiuhua Zhu Xoplaki, Elena Fahu Chen Jianping Duan Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Ivanov, Martin Schneider, Lea Talento, Stefanie Jianglin Wang Bao, Yang Luterbacher, Jürg |
author2_role | author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
author_facet | Huan Zhang Werner, Johannes P. García-Bustamante, Elena González-Rouco, Fidel Wagner, Sebastián Zorita, Eduardo Fraedrich, Klaus Jungclaus, Johann H. Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Xiuhua Zhu Xoplaki, Elena Fahu Chen Jianping Duan Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Ivanov, Martin Schneider, Lea Talento, Stefanie Jianglin Wang Bao, Yang Luterbacher, Jürg |
author_role | author |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.es.fl_str_mv | Talento, Stefanie. Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Huan Zhang Werner, Johannes P. García-Bustamante, Elena González-Rouco, Fidel Wagner, Sebastián Zorita, Eduardo Fraedrich, Klaus Jungclaus, Johann H. Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier Xiuhua Zhu Xoplaki, Elena Fahu Chen Jianping Duan Quansheng Ge Zhixin Hao Ivanov, Martin Schneider, Lea Talento, Stefanie Jianglin Wang Bao, Yang Luterbacher, Jürg |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2019-10-02T22:08:21Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2019-10-02T22:08:21Z |
dc.date.issued.es.fl_str_mv | 2018 |
dc.date.submitted.es.fl_str_mv | 20190930 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Zhang, H., y otros. "East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia". Scientific Reports, 2018, 8: 7702. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 |
dc.identifier.doi.es.fl_str_mv | 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 |
dc.identifier.issn.es.fl_str_mv | 2045-2322 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/21999 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Nature Publishing Group |
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Scientific Reports, 2018, 8, art. no. 7702 |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Temperature variations Climate model East Asia temperature |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
description | East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | article |
id | COLIBRI_b98722ee9702e7be1163efc2c90efac8 |
identifier_str_mv | Zhang, H., y otros. "East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia". Scientific Reports, 2018, 8: 7702. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 2045-2322 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/21999 |
publishDate | 2018 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0) |
spelling | Talento, Stefanie. Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2019-10-02T22:08:21Z2019-10-02T22:08:21Z201820190930Zhang, H., y otros. "East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia". Scientific Reports, 2018, 8: 7702. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 2045-2322https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/2199910.1038/s41598-018-26038-8 East Asia has experienced strong warming since the 1960s accompanied by an increased frequency of heat waves and shrinking glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and the Tien Shan. Here, we place the recent warmth in a long-term perspective by presenting a new spatially resolved warm-season (May-September) temperature reconstruction for the period 1–2000 CE using 59 multiproxy records from a wide range of East Asian regions. Our Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based reconstructions generally agree with earlier shorter regional temperatura reconstructions but are more stable due to additional temperature sensitive proxies. We find a rather warm period during the first two centuries CE, followed by a multi-century long cooling period and again a warm interval covering the 900–1200 CE period (Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA). The interval from 1450 to 1850 CE (Little Ice Age, LIA) was characterized by cooler conditions and the last 150 years are characterized by a continuous warming until recent times. Our results also suggest that the 1990s were likely the warmest decade in at least 1200 years. The comparison between an ensemble of climate model simulations and our summer reconstructions since 850 CE shows good agreement and an important role of internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales.Made available in DSpace on 2019-10-02T22:08:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 5 101038s41598018260388.pdf: 2787373 bytes, checksum: 3ed7d704a41c6b671c8e42a897702948 (MD5) license_text: 38297 bytes, checksum: 4fe6ac477f5a2df0424a5ff1a9bf000c (MD5) license_url: 44 bytes, checksum: a0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392c (MD5) license_rdf: 8067 bytes, checksum: bc1bc9659a4a06e9516479a5adfd8b0e (MD5) license.txt: 4194 bytes, checksum: 7f2e2c17ef6585de66da58d1bfa8b5e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018application/pdfenengNature Publishing GroupScientific Reports, 2018, 8, art. no. 7702Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad De La República. (Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC –BY 4.0)Temperature variationsClimate modelEast Asia temperatureEast Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millenniaArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaHuan ZhangWerner, Johannes P.García-Bustamante, ElenaGonzález-Rouco, FidelWagner, SebastiánZorita, EduardoFraedrich, KlausJungclaus, Johann H.Ljungqvist, Fredrik CharpentierXiuhua ZhuXoplaki, ElenaFahu ChenJianping DuanQuansheng GeZhixin HaoIvanov, MartinSchneider, LeaTalento, StefanieJianglin WangBao, YangLuterbacher, 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia Huan Zhang Temperature variations Climate model East Asia temperature |
status_str | publishedVersion |
title | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
title_full | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
title_fullStr | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
title_full_unstemmed | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
title_short | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
title_sort | East Asian warm season temperature variations over the past two millennia |
topic | Temperature variations Climate model East Asia temperature |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/21999 |