Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
Resumen:
Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.
2022 | |
SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Severity Critical disease Meta-analysis Serology |
|
Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/39935 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
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---|---|
author | Herrera Espósito, Daniel |
author2 | Campos, Gustavo de los |
author2_role | author |
author_facet | Herrera Espósito, Daniel Campos, Gustavo de los |
author_role | author |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología. Campos Gustavo de los |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Herrera Espósito, Daniel Campos, Gustavo de los |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-09-18T15:16:41Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-09-18T15:16:41Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2022 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths. |
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 14 h. |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Herrera Espósito, D y Campos, G. "Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies". BMC Infectious Diseases. [en línea] 2022, 22:311. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv | 1471-2334 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/39935 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en_US eng |
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Springer Nature |
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | BMC Infectious Diseases, 2022, 22:311. |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Severity Critical disease Meta-analysis Serology |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
description | Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths. |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | article |
id | COLIBRI_a82304a18899f10e45c8c10a6c454d9b |
identifier_str_mv | Herrera Espósito, D y Campos, G. "Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies". BMC Infectious Diseases. [en línea] 2022, 22:311. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0 1471-2334 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0 |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en_US |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/39935 |
publishDate | 2022 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
spelling | Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.Campos Gustavo de los2023-09-18T15:16:41Z2023-09-18T15:16:41Z2022Herrera Espósito, D y Campos, G. "Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies". BMC Infectious Diseases. [en línea] 2022, 22:311. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-01471-2334https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3993510.1186/s12879-022-07262-0Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.Submitted by Farías Verónica (vfarias@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-08-31T17:43:32Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101186s12879022072620.pdf: 2247475 bytes, checksum: 5d0179b2a9e054435af5b346ddcdd5e7 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-09-18T12:10:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101186s12879022072620.pdf: 2247475 bytes, checksum: 5d0179b2a9e054435af5b346ddcdd5e7 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Seroubian Mabel (mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy) on 2023-09-18T15:16:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101186s12879022072620.pdf: 2247475 bytes, checksum: 5d0179b2a9e054435af5b346ddcdd5e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202214 h.application/pdfen_USengSpringer NatureBMC Infectious Diseases, 2022, 22:311.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)SARS-CoV-2COVID-19SeverityCritical diseaseMeta-analysisSerologyAge‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studiesArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaHerrera Espósito, DanielCampos, Gustavo de losLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/39935/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/39935/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies Herrera Espósito, Daniel SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Severity Critical disease Meta-analysis Serology |
status_str | publishedVersion |
title | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
title_full | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
title_fullStr | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
title_full_unstemmed | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
title_short | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
title_sort | Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies |
topic | SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Severity Critical disease Meta-analysis Serology |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/39935 |