Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies

Herrera Espósito, Daniel - Campos, Gustavo de los

Resumen:

Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2022
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Severity
Critical disease
Meta-analysis
Serology
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/39935
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Herrera Espósito, Daniel
author2 Campos, Gustavo de los
author2_role author
author_facet Herrera Espósito, Daniel
Campos, Gustavo de los
author_role author
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dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.
Campos Gustavo de los
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Herrera Espósito, Daniel
Campos, Gustavo de los
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2023-09-18T15:16:41Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2023-09-18T15:16:41Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 14 h.
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dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Herrera Espósito, D y Campos, G. "Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies". BMC Infectious Diseases. [en línea] 2022, 22:311. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1471-2334
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/39935
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en_US
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv BMC Infectious Diseases, 2022, 22:311.
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Severity
Critical disease
Meta-analysis
Serology
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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identifier_str_mv Herrera Espósito, D y Campos, G. "Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies". BMC Infectious Diseases. [en línea] 2022, 22:311. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0
1471-2334
10.1186/s12879-022-07262-0
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publishDate 2022
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.Campos Gustavo de los2023-09-18T15:16:41Z2023-09-18T15:16:41Z2022Herrera Espósito, D y Campos, G. "Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies". BMC Infectious Diseases. [en línea] 2022, 22:311. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07262-01471-2334https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3993510.1186/s12879-022-07262-0Background: Knowing the age-specific rates at which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop severe and critical disease is essential for designing public policy, for infectious disease modeling, and for individual risk evaluation. Methods: In this study, we present the first estimates of these rates using multi-country serology studies, and public data on hospital admissions and mortality from early to mid-2020. We combine these under a Bayesian framework that accounts for the high heterogeneity between data sources and their respective uncertainties. We also validate our results using an indirect method based on infection fatality rates and hospital mortality data. Results: Our results show that the risk of severe and critical disease increases exponentially with age, but much less steeply than the risk of fatal illness. We also show that our results are consistent across several robustness checks. Conclusion: A complete evaluation of the risks of SARS-CoV-2 for health must take non-fatal disease outcomes into account, particularly in young populations where they can be 2 orders of magnitude more frequent than deaths.Submitted by Farías Verónica (vfarias@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-08-31T17:43:32Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101186s12879022072620.pdf: 2247475 bytes, checksum: 5d0179b2a9e054435af5b346ddcdd5e7 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-09-18T12:10:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101186s12879022072620.pdf: 2247475 bytes, checksum: 5d0179b2a9e054435af5b346ddcdd5e7 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Seroubian Mabel (mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy) on 2023-09-18T15:16:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 19875 bytes, checksum: 9fdbed07f52437945402c4e70fa4773e (MD5) 101186s12879022072620.pdf: 2247475 bytes, checksum: 5d0179b2a9e054435af5b346ddcdd5e7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202214 h.application/pdfen_USengSpringer NatureBMC Infectious Diseases, 2022, 22:311.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)SARS-CoV-2COVID-19SeverityCritical diseaseMeta-analysisSerologyAge‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studiesArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaHerrera Espósito, DanielCampos, Gustavo de losLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/39935/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/39935/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
Herrera Espósito, Daniel
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Severity
Critical disease
Meta-analysis
Serology
status_str publishedVersion
title Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
title_full Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
title_fullStr Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
title_full_unstemmed Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
title_short Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
title_sort Age‑specific rate of severe and critical SARS‑CoV‑2 infections estimated with multi‑country seroprevalence studies
topic SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Severity
Critical disease
Meta-analysis
Serology
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/39935