Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics

Arim, Matías - Herrera Espósito, Daniel - Bermolen, Paola - Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J. - Fariello Rico, María Inés - Lima, Mauricio - Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel

Resumen:

Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2022
SARS
Allee effect
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Outbreak threshold
Alternative states
Super-spreading
Super-spreader
TEst-TRace-ISolate
TETRIS
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
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author Arim, Matías
author2 Herrera Espósito, Daniel
Bermolen, Paola
Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J.
Fariello Rico, María Inés
Lima, Mauricio
Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author_facet Arim, Matías
Herrera Espósito, Daniel
Bermolen, Paola
Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J.
Fariello Rico, María Inés
Lima, Mauricio
Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Arim Matías, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. CURE.
Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.
Bermolen Paola, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.
Cabana Fajardo Álvaro J., Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Psicología.
Fariello Rico María Inés
Lima Mauricio
Romero Brunetto Héctor Gabriel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Arim, Matías
Herrera Espósito, Daniel
Bermolen, Paola
Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J.
Fariello Rico, María Inés
Lima, Mauricio
Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2023-07-31T17:40:42Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2023-07-31T17:40:42Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv Publicado en: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2022, 542: 111109. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 9 h.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Arim, M, Herrera Espósito, D, Bermolen, P, [y otros autores]. "Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics". [Preprint] 2022, 9 h.
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en_US
eng
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv SARS
Allee effect
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Outbreak threshold
Alternative states
Super-spreading
Super-spreader
TEst-TRace-ISolate
TETRIS
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Preprint
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
description Publicado en: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2022, 542: 111109. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format preprint
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identifier_str_mv Arim, M, Herrera Espósito, D, Bermolen, P, [y otros autores]. "Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics". [Preprint] 2022, 9 h.
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
language_invalid_str_mv en_US
network_acronym_str COLIBRI
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oai_identifier_str oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/38542
publishDate 2022
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
spelling Arim Matías, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. CURE.Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.Bermolen Paola, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Cabana Fajardo Álvaro J., Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Psicología.Fariello Rico María InésLima MauricioRomero Brunetto Héctor Gabriel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.2023-07-31T17:40:42Z2023-07-31T17:40:42Z2022Arim, M, Herrera Espósito, D, Bermolen, P, [y otros autores]. "Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics". [Preprint] 2022, 9 h.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542Publicado en: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2022, 542: 111109. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.Submitted by Farías Verónica (vfarias@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:10:41Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109.pdf: 1276517 bytes, checksum: e1ccc0eced2ab04c7dd9d77e72ceb7f0 (MD5)Rejected by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy), reason: on 2023-07-31T17:13:58Z (GMT)Submitted by Farías Verónica (vfarias@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:31:02Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109_pp.pdf: 972611 bytes, checksum: a3d08bcc31be30fc0fbc95775a2c13e0 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:34:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109_pp.pdf: 972611 bytes, checksum: a3d08bcc31be30fc0fbc95775a2c13e0 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:40:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109_pp.pdf: 972611 bytes, checksum: a3d08bcc31be30fc0fbc95775a2c13e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 20229 h.application/pdfen_USengLas obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)SARSAllee effectNon-pharmaceutical interventionsOutbreak thresholdAlternative statesSuper-spreadingSuper-spreaderTEst-TRace-ISolateTETRISContact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamicsPreprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaArim, MatíasHerrera Espósito, DanielBermolen, PaolaCabana Fajardo, Álvaro J.Fariello Rico, María InésLima, MauricioRomero Brunetto, Héctor GabrielLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/38542/10/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD510CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
Arim, Matías
SARS
Allee effect
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Outbreak threshold
Alternative states
Super-spreading
Super-spreader
TEst-TRace-ISolate
TETRIS
status_str submittedVersion
title Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
title_full Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
title_fullStr Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
title_short Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
title_sort Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
topic SARS
Allee effect
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Outbreak threshold
Alternative states
Super-spreading
Super-spreader
TEst-TRace-ISolate
TETRIS
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542