Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics
Resumen:
Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.
2022 | |
SARS Allee effect Non-pharmaceutical interventions Outbreak threshold Alternative states Super-spreading Super-spreader TEst-TRace-ISolate TETRIS |
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Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
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---|---|
author | Arim, Matías |
author2 | Herrera Espósito, Daniel Bermolen, Paola Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J. Fariello Rico, María Inés Lima, Mauricio Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel |
author2_role | author author author author author author |
author_facet | Arim, Matías Herrera Espósito, Daniel Bermolen, Paola Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J. Fariello Rico, María Inés Lima, Mauricio Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel |
author_role | author |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Arim Matías, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. CURE. Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología. Bermolen Paola, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Cabana Fajardo Álvaro J., Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Psicología. Fariello Rico María Inés Lima Mauricio Romero Brunetto Héctor Gabriel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología. |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Arim, Matías Herrera Espósito, Daniel Bermolen, Paola Cabana Fajardo, Álvaro J. Fariello Rico, María Inés Lima, Mauricio Romero Brunetto, Héctor Gabriel |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-07-31T17:40:42Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2023-07-31T17:40:42Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2022 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks. |
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv | Publicado en: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2022, 542: 111109. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109 |
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 9 h. |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Arim, M, Herrera Espósito, D, Bermolen, P, [y otros autores]. "Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics". [Preprint] 2022, 9 h. |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en_US eng |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | SARS Allee effect Non-pharmaceutical interventions Outbreak threshold Alternative states Super-spreading Super-spreader TEst-TRace-ISolate TETRIS |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Preprint |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion |
description | Publicado en: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2022, 542: 111109. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109 |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | preprint |
id | COLIBRI_9a429115e0502d402c810f5185f3be98 |
identifier_str_mv | Arim, M, Herrera Espósito, D, Bermolen, P, [y otros autores]. "Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics". [Preprint] 2022, 9 h. |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en_US |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/38542 |
publishDate | 2022 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
spelling | Arim Matías, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. CURE.Herrera Espósito Daniel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.Bermolen Paola, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Cabana Fajardo Álvaro J., Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Psicología.Fariello Rico María InésLima MauricioRomero Brunetto Héctor Gabriel, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Biología.2023-07-31T17:40:42Z2023-07-31T17:40:42Z2022Arim, M, Herrera Espósito, D, Bermolen, P, [y otros autores]. "Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics". [Preprint] 2022, 9 h.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542Publicado en: Journal of Theoretical Biology, 2022, 542: 111109. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111109Contact tracing, case isolation, quarantine, social distancing, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effects on disease dynamics are not fully understood. Saturation of contact tracing caused by the increase of infected individuals has been recognized as a crucial variable by healthcare systems worldwide. Here, we model this saturation process with a mechanistic and a phenomenological model and show that it induces an Allee effect which could determine an infection threshold between two alternative states—containment and outbreak. This transition was considered elsewhere as a response to the strength of NPIs, but here we show that they may be also determined by the number of infected individuals. As a consequence, timing of NPIs implementation and relaxation after containment is critical to their effectiveness. Containment strategies such as vaccination or mobility restriction may interact with contact tracing-induced Allee effect. Each strategy in isolation tends to show diminishing returns, with a less than proportional effect of the intervention on disease containment. However, when combined, their suppressing potential is enhanced. Relaxation of NPIs after disease containment--e.g. because vaccination--have to be performed in attention to avoid crossing the infection threshold required to a novel outbreak. The recognition of a contact tracing-induced Allee effect, its interaction with other NPIs and vaccination, and the existence of tipping points contributes to the understanding of several features of disease dynamics and its response to containment interventions. This knowledge may be of relevance for explaining the dynamics of diseases in different regions and, more importantly, as input for guiding the use of NPIs, vaccination campaigns, and its combination for the management of epidemic outbreaks.Submitted by Farías Verónica (vfarias@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:10:41Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109.pdf: 1276517 bytes, checksum: e1ccc0eced2ab04c7dd9d77e72ceb7f0 (MD5)Rejected by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy), reason: on 2023-07-31T17:13:58Z (GMT)Submitted by Farías Verónica (vfarias@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:31:02Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109_pp.pdf: 972611 bytes, checksum: a3d08bcc31be30fc0fbc95775a2c13e0 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:34:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109_pp.pdf: 972611 bytes, checksum: a3d08bcc31be30fc0fbc95775a2c13e0 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2023-07-31T17:40:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jjtbi2022111109_pp.pdf: 972611 bytes, checksum: a3d08bcc31be30fc0fbc95775a2c13e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 20229 h.application/pdfen_USengLas obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)SARSAllee effectNon-pharmaceutical interventionsOutbreak thresholdAlternative statesSuper-spreadingSuper-spreaderTEst-TRace-ISolateTETRISContact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamicsPreprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaArim, MatíasHerrera Espósito, DanielBermolen, PaolaCabana Fajardo, Álvaro J.Fariello Rico, María InésLima, MauricioRomero Brunetto, Héctor GabrielLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/38542/10/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD510CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics Arim, Matías SARS Allee effect Non-pharmaceutical interventions Outbreak threshold Alternative states Super-spreading Super-spreader TEst-TRace-ISolate TETRIS |
status_str | submittedVersion |
title | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
title_full | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
title_fullStr | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
title_short | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
title_sort | Contact tracing-induced Allee effect in disease dynamics |
topic | SARS Allee effect Non-pharmaceutical interventions Outbreak threshold Alternative states Super-spreading Super-spreader TEst-TRace-ISolate TETRIS |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/38542 |