A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world
Resumen:
Since its first detection in the UK in September 2020, a highly contagious version of the coronavirus, the alpha or British variant a.k.a. B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 virus lineage, rapidly spread across several countries and became the dominant strain in the outbreak. Here it is shown that a very simple evolutionary model can fit the observed change in frequency of B.1.1.7 for several countries, regions of countries and the whole world with a single parameter, its relative fitness f, which is almost universal f ≈ 1.5. This is consistent with a 50% higher ransmissibility than the local wild type and with the fact that the period in which this variant takes over has been in all the studied cases around 22 weeks.
| 2021 | |
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SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33428 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1807522792673902592 |
|---|---|
| author | Fort, Hugo |
| author_facet | Fort, Hugo |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Fort Hugo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Fort, Hugo |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-08-30T14:08:18Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2022-08-30T14:08:18Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2021 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Since its first detection in the UK in September 2020, a highly contagious version of the coronavirus, the alpha or British variant a.k.a. B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 virus lineage, rapidly spread across several countries and became the dominant strain in the outbreak. Here it is shown that a very simple evolutionary model can fit the observed change in frequency of B.1.1.7 for several countries, regions of countries and the whole world with a single parameter, its relative fitness f, which is almost universal f ≈ 1.5. This is consistent with a 50% higher ransmissibility than the local wild type and with the fact that the period in which this variant takes over has been in all the studied cases around 22 weeks. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 5 h |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Fort, H. "A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world". Virus Research. [en línea] 2021, 304: 198531. 5 h. Doi: 10.1016/j.virusres.2021.198531. |
| dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1016/j.virusres.2021.198531 |
| dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv | 0168-1702 |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33428 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Elsevier |
| dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Virus Research, 2021, 304: 198531. |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Since its first detection in the UK in September 2020, a highly contagious version of the coronavirus, the alpha or British variant a.k.a. B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 virus lineage, rapidly spread across several countries and became the dominant strain in the outbreak. Here it is shown that a very simple evolutionary model can fit the observed change in frequency of B.1.1.7 for several countries, regions of countries and the whole world with a single parameter, its relative fitness f, which is almost universal f ≈ 1.5. This is consistent with a 50% higher ransmissibility than the local wild type and with the fact that the period in which this variant takes over has been in all the studied cases around 22 weeks. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | COLIBRI_90a679dc0c9cbe012bcdfb30893e1b9e |
| identifier_str_mv | Fort, H. "A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world". Virus Research. [en línea] 2021, 304: 198531. 5 h. Doi: 10.1016/j.virusres.2021.198531. 0168-1702 10.1016/j.virusres.2021.198531 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/33428 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | Fort Hugo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2022-08-30T14:08:18Z2022-08-30T14:08:18Z2021Fort, H. "A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world". Virus Research. [en línea] 2021, 304: 198531. 5 h. Doi: 10.1016/j.virusres.2021.198531.0168-1702https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/3342810.1016/j.virusres.2021.198531Since its first detection in the UK in September 2020, a highly contagious version of the coronavirus, the alpha or British variant a.k.a. B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 virus lineage, rapidly spread across several countries and became the dominant strain in the outbreak. Here it is shown that a very simple evolutionary model can fit the observed change in frequency of B.1.1.7 for several countries, regions of countries and the whole world with a single parameter, its relative fitness f, which is almost universal f ≈ 1.5. This is consistent with a 50% higher ransmissibility than the local wild type and with the fact that the period in which this variant takes over has been in all the studied cases around 22 weeks.Submitted by Parodi Mónica (mparodi@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-08-23T15:06:07Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jvirusres2021198531.pdf: 2661620 bytes, checksum: 057c27b64b61681b01f3e347916d8a00 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2022-08-30T14:02:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jvirusres2021198531.pdf: 2661620 bytes, checksum: 057c27b64b61681b01f3e347916d8a00 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2022-08-30T14:08:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) 101016jvirusres2021198531.pdf: 2661620 bytes, checksum: 057c27b64b61681b01f3e347916d8a00 (MD5) Previous issue date: 20215 happlication/pdfenengElsevierVirus Research, 2021, 304: 198531.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)SARS-CoV-2Alpha variantA very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the worldArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaFort, HugoLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/33428/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-850http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/33428/2/license_urla006180e3f5b2ad0b88185d14284c0e0MD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; charset=utf-838616http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/33428/3/license_text36c32e9c6da50e6d55578c16944ef7f6MD53license_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world Fort, Hugo SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| title_full | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| title_fullStr | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| title_full_unstemmed | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| title_short | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| title_sort | A very simple model to account for the rapid rise of the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 in several countries and the world |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/33428 |
