Was falling inequality in all Latin American countries a data-driven illusion? Income distribution and mobility patterns in Uruguay 2009-2016

Burdín, Gabriel - De Rosa, Mauricio - Vigorito, Andrea - Vilá, Joan

Resumen:

Although many studies based on household surveys indicate that over the last two decades income inequality decreased in most Latin American countries, income tax records estimations for specific countries suggest that top incomes shares remained steady or even increased. To contribute to the current debate, we provide evidence for Uruguay on primary income distribution among income receivers in the time-span 2009-2016 and assess income dynamics along the income distribution. Our research is based on household surveys micro-data and a unique array of longitudinal matched personal-firm income tax micro-data that covers around 75% of the adult population. Our findings suggest that inequality trends are sensitive to the data source and inequality measure. Pre and post-tax Gini and Theil indices decreased, with a milder fall in tax records than in harmonized household surveys. However, reduction patterns were different the two data-sets: whereas in tax records synthetic indices fell within the bottom 99% offsetting increased concentration at the top, household survey estimations indicate that the largest inequality reduction occurred at the top. In turn, while falling in harmonized household surveys throughout the whole period, tax records based estimates of top 1% income share remained steady around 15% in 2009-2014 and grew afterwards. We also investigate income dynamics, showing that positions were very stable with average persistence rates at the top 1% close to 80%. Interestingly, persistence rates were slightly lower in the period of decreasing inequality. Finally, we highlight that, in the time-span considered, income mobility had a very modest equalizing effect.


Si bien muchos estudios basados en encuestas de hogares indican que en las últimas dos décadas la desigualdad de ingresos disminuyó en la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos, las estimaciones disponibles basadas en registros tributarios para países específicos sugieren que la participación de los grupos de altos ingresos se mantuvo estable o incluso aumentó. Para contribuir al debate actual, proporcionamos evidencia para Uruguay sobre la distribución del ingreso primario entre los perceptores de ingresos en el período 2009-2016 y evaluamos la dinámica del ingreso a lo largo de la distribución. Nuestra investigación se basa en microdatos de encuestas de hogares y un panel de microdatos tributarios de empresas-indivudos concatenados que dan cuenta de alrededor del 75% de la población adulta. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que las tendencias de desigualdad son sensibles a la fuente de datos y la medida de desigualdad. Los índices de Gini y Theil antes y después de impuestos disminuyeron, con una caída más leve en los registros de impuestos que en las encuestas de hogares armonizadas. Sin embargo, los patrones de reducción fueron diferentes en los dos conjuntos de datos: mientras que en los registros tributarios los índices sintéticos disminuyeron dentro del 99% inferior, compensando el aumento de la concentración en la parte superior de la distribución, las estimaciones de las encuestas de hogares indican que la mayor reducción de la desigualdad ocurrió en la parte superior. A su vez, a pesar de caer en encuestas de hogares armonizadas a lo largo de todo el período, las estimaciones basadas en registros impositivos del 1 % superior se mantuvieron estables alrededor del 15% en 2009-2014, creciendo posteriormente. También investigamos la dinámica de ingresos, mostrando que las posiciones fueron muy estables, con tasas de persistencia promedio cercanas al 80 % en el 1 % superior. Asimismo, encontramos que éstas fueron ligeramente más bajas en el período de disminución de la desigualdad. Finalmente, destacamos que, en el lapso de tiempo considerado, la movilidad del ingreso tuvo un efecto igualador muy modesto.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2019
Ingresos altos
Distribución del ingreso
Movilidad
Tributación a la renta
Registros tributarios
Uruguay
Top incomes
Income inequality
Mobility
Personal income taxation
Tax records
POLITICA FISCAL
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/23157
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
Resumen:
Sumario:Although many studies based on household surveys indicate that over the last two decades income inequality decreased in most Latin American countries, income tax records estimations for specific countries suggest that top incomes shares remained steady or even increased. To contribute to the current debate, we provide evidence for Uruguay on primary income distribution among income receivers in the time-span 2009-2016 and assess income dynamics along the income distribution. Our research is based on household surveys micro-data and a unique array of longitudinal matched personal-firm income tax micro-data that covers around 75% of the adult population. Our findings suggest that inequality trends are sensitive to the data source and inequality measure. Pre and post-tax Gini and Theil indices decreased, with a milder fall in tax records than in harmonized household surveys. However, reduction patterns were different the two data-sets: whereas in tax records synthetic indices fell within the bottom 99% offsetting increased concentration at the top, household survey estimations indicate that the largest inequality reduction occurred at the top. In turn, while falling in harmonized household surveys throughout the whole period, tax records based estimates of top 1% income share remained steady around 15% in 2009-2014 and grew afterwards. We also investigate income dynamics, showing that positions were very stable with average persistence rates at the top 1% close to 80%. Interestingly, persistence rates were slightly lower in the period of decreasing inequality. Finally, we highlight that, in the time-span considered, income mobility had a very modest equalizing effect.