Zero Black-Derman-Toy interest rate model

Krzyzanowski, Grzegorz - Mordecki, Ernesto - Sosa, Andrés

Resumen:

We propose a modification of the classical Black-Derman-Toy (BDT) interest rate tree model, which includes the possibility of a jump with small probability at each step to a practically zero interest rate. The corresponding BDT algorithms are consequently modified to calibrate the tree containing the zero interest rate scenarios. This modification is motivated by the recent 2008–2009 crisis in the United States and it quantifies the risk of a future crises in bond prices and derivatives. The proposed model is useful to price derivatives. This exercise also provides a tool to calibrate the probability of this event. A comparison of option prices and implied volatilities on US Treasury bonds computed with both the proposed and the classical tree model is provided, in six different scenarios along the different periods comprising the years 2002–2017.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2020
Black-Derman-Toy model,
Zero Interest Rate Policy
Bond option
Financial Crisis
Term structure
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/41072
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
Resumen:
Sumario:Versión permitida: preprint