The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.

Lauret, Philippe - Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo - Amaro e Silva, Rodrigo - Boland, John - David, Mathieu - Herzberg, Wiebke - Le Gal La Salle, Josselin - Lorenz, Elke - Visser, Lennard - van Sark, Wilfried - Zech, Tobias

Resumen:

Despite the growing awareness in academia and industry of the importance of solar probabilistic forecasting for further enhancing the integration of variable photovoltaic power generation into electrical power grids, there is still no benchmark study comparing a wide range of solar probabilistic methods across various local climates. Having identified this research gap, experts involved in the activities of IEA PVPS T161 agreed to establish a benchmarking exercise to evaluate the quality of intra-hour and intra-day probabilistic irradiance forecasts. The tested forecasting methodologies are based on different input data including ground measurements, satellite-based forecasts and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), and different statistical methods are employed to generate probabilistic forecasts from these. The exercise highlights different forecast quality depending on the method used, and more importantly, on the input data fed into the models. In particular, the benchmarking procedure reveals that the association of a point forecast that blends ground, satellite and NWP data with a statistical technique generates high-quality probabilistic forecasts. Therefore, in a subsequent step, an additional investigation was conducted to assess the added value of such a blended point forecast on forecast quality. Three new statistical methods were implemented using the blended point forecast as input. To ensure a fair evaluation of the different methods, we calculate a skill score that measures the performance of the proposed model relative to that of a trivial baseline model. The closer the skill score is to 100%, the more efficient the method is. Overall, skill scores of methods that use the blended point forecast ranges from 42% to 46% for the intra-hour scenario and 27% to 32% for the intra-day scenario. Conversely, methods that do not use the blended point forecast exhibit skill scores ranging from 33% to 43% for intra-hour forecasts and 8% to 16% for intra-day forecasts. These results suggest that using (a) blended point forecasts that optimally combine different sources of input data and (b) a post-processing with a statistical method to produce the quantile forecasts is an effective and consistent way to generate high-quality intra-hour or intra-day probabilistic forecasts.

Detalles Bibliográficos
2024
Probabilistic solar forecasting
Benchmarking exercise
Blended point forecast
CRPS
IEA PVPS T16
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48702
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
_version_ 1875693099557060608
author Lauret, Philippe
author2 Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
Amaro e Silva, Rodrigo
Boland, John
David, Mathieu
Herzberg, Wiebke
Le Gal La Salle, Josselin
Lorenz, Elke
Visser, Lennard
van Sark, Wilfried
Zech, Tobias
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author_facet Lauret, Philippe
Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
Amaro e Silva, Rodrigo
Boland, John
David, Mathieu
Herzberg, Wiebke
Le Gal La Salle, Josselin
Lorenz, Elke
Visser, Lennard
van Sark, Wilfried
Zech, Tobias
author_role author
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9
a0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392c
8b82caa0c45d60ccf023893f91a60a0a
58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f
4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bf
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/5/license.txt
http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/2/license_url
http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/3/license_text
http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/4/license_rdf
http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/1/LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf
collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Lauret Philippe, University of La Réunion (France)
Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.
Amaro e Silva Rodrigo, MINES Paris University (France)
Boland John, University of South Australia
David Mathieu, University of La Réunion (France)
Herzberg Wiebke, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Germany)
Le Gall La Salle Josselin, University of La Réunion (France)
Lorenz Elke, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Germany)
Visser Lennard, Utrecht University (The Netherlands)
van Sark Wilfried, Utrecht University (The Netherlands)
Zech Tobias, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Germany)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Lauret, Philippe
Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
Amaro e Silva, Rodrigo
Boland, John
David, Mathieu
Herzberg, Wiebke
Le Gal La Salle, Josselin
Lorenz, Elke
Visser, Lennard
van Sark, Wilfried
Zech, Tobias
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2025-03-19T15:09:02Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2025-03-19T15:09:02Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2024
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Despite the growing awareness in academia and industry of the importance of solar probabilistic forecasting for further enhancing the integration of variable photovoltaic power generation into electrical power grids, there is still no benchmark study comparing a wide range of solar probabilistic methods across various local climates. Having identified this research gap, experts involved in the activities of IEA PVPS T161 agreed to establish a benchmarking exercise to evaluate the quality of intra-hour and intra-day probabilistic irradiance forecasts. The tested forecasting methodologies are based on different input data including ground measurements, satellite-based forecasts and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), and different statistical methods are employed to generate probabilistic forecasts from these. The exercise highlights different forecast quality depending on the method used, and more importantly, on the input data fed into the models. In particular, the benchmarking procedure reveals that the association of a point forecast that blends ground, satellite and NWP data with a statistical technique generates high-quality probabilistic forecasts. Therefore, in a subsequent step, an additional investigation was conducted to assess the added value of such a blended point forecast on forecast quality. Three new statistical methods were implemented using the blended point forecast as input. To ensure a fair evaluation of the different methods, we calculate a skill score that measures the performance of the proposed model relative to that of a trivial baseline model. The closer the skill score is to 100%, the more efficient the method is. Overall, skill scores of methods that use the blended point forecast ranges from 42% to 46% for the intra-hour scenario and 27% to 32% for the intra-day scenario. Conversely, methods that do not use the blended point forecast exhibit skill scores ranging from 33% to 43% for intra-hour forecasts and 8% to 16% for intra-day forecasts. These results suggest that using (a) blended point forecasts that optimally combine different sources of input data and (b) a post-processing with a statistical method to produce the quantile forecasts is an effective and consistent way to generate high-quality intra-hour or intra-day probabilistic forecasts.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 19 p.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Lauret, P., Alonso-Suárez, R., Amaro e Silva, R. y otros. "The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts: A probabilistic benchmarking exercise". Renewable Energy, vol.237 [en línea] 2024. 19 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574.
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48702
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en_US
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Renewable Energy, Vol. 237 (2024) 121574.
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Probabilistic solar forecasting
Benchmarking exercise
Blended point forecast
CRPS
IEA PVPS T16
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Despite the growing awareness in academia and industry of the importance of solar probabilistic forecasting for further enhancing the integration of variable photovoltaic power generation into electrical power grids, there is still no benchmark study comparing a wide range of solar probabilistic methods across various local climates. Having identified this research gap, experts involved in the activities of IEA PVPS T161 agreed to establish a benchmarking exercise to evaluate the quality of intra-hour and intra-day probabilistic irradiance forecasts. The tested forecasting methodologies are based on different input data including ground measurements, satellite-based forecasts and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), and different statistical methods are employed to generate probabilistic forecasts from these. The exercise highlights different forecast quality depending on the method used, and more importantly, on the input data fed into the models. In particular, the benchmarking procedure reveals that the association of a point forecast that blends ground, satellite and NWP data with a statistical technique generates high-quality probabilistic forecasts. Therefore, in a subsequent step, an additional investigation was conducted to assess the added value of such a blended point forecast on forecast quality. Three new statistical methods were implemented using the blended point forecast as input. To ensure a fair evaluation of the different methods, we calculate a skill score that measures the performance of the proposed model relative to that of a trivial baseline model. The closer the skill score is to 100%, the more efficient the method is. Overall, skill scores of methods that use the blended point forecast ranges from 42% to 46% for the intra-hour scenario and 27% to 32% for the intra-day scenario. Conversely, methods that do not use the blended point forecast exhibit skill scores ranging from 33% to 43% for intra-hour forecasts and 8% to 16% for intra-day forecasts. These results suggest that using (a) blended point forecasts that optimally combine different sources of input data and (b) a post-processing with a statistical method to produce the quantile forecasts is an effective and consistent way to generate high-quality intra-hour or intra-day probabilistic forecasts.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format article
id COLIBRI_81cd0be8dae9d779a17d6c470f63dcfd
identifier_str_mv Lauret, P., Alonso-Suárez, R., Amaro e Silva, R. y otros. "The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts: A probabilistic benchmarking exercise". Renewable Energy, vol.237 [en línea] 2024. 19 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574.
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
language_invalid_str_mv en_US
network_acronym_str COLIBRI
network_name_str COLIBRI
oai_identifier_str oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/48702
publishDate 2024
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Lauret Philippe, University of La Réunion (France)Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Amaro e Silva Rodrigo, MINES Paris University (France)Boland John, University of South AustraliaDavid Mathieu, University of La Réunion (France)Herzberg Wiebke, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Germany)Le Gall La Salle Josselin, University of La Réunion (France)Lorenz Elke, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Germany)Visser Lennard, Utrecht University (The Netherlands)van Sark Wilfried, Utrecht University (The Netherlands)Zech Tobias, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Germany)2025-03-19T15:09:02Z2025-03-19T15:09:02Z2024Lauret, P., Alonso-Suárez, R., Amaro e Silva, R. y otros. "The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts: A probabilistic benchmarking exercise". Renewable Energy, vol.237 [en línea] 2024. 19 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48702https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574Despite the growing awareness in academia and industry of the importance of solar probabilistic forecasting for further enhancing the integration of variable photovoltaic power generation into electrical power grids, there is still no benchmark study comparing a wide range of solar probabilistic methods across various local climates. Having identified this research gap, experts involved in the activities of IEA PVPS T161 agreed to establish a benchmarking exercise to evaluate the quality of intra-hour and intra-day probabilistic irradiance forecasts. The tested forecasting methodologies are based on different input data including ground measurements, satellite-based forecasts and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), and different statistical methods are employed to generate probabilistic forecasts from these. The exercise highlights different forecast quality depending on the method used, and more importantly, on the input data fed into the models. In particular, the benchmarking procedure reveals that the association of a point forecast that blends ground, satellite and NWP data with a statistical technique generates high-quality probabilistic forecasts. Therefore, in a subsequent step, an additional investigation was conducted to assess the added value of such a blended point forecast on forecast quality. Three new statistical methods were implemented using the blended point forecast as input. To ensure a fair evaluation of the different methods, we calculate a skill score that measures the performance of the proposed model relative to that of a trivial baseline model. The closer the skill score is to 100%, the more efficient the method is. Overall, skill scores of methods that use the blended point forecast ranges from 42% to 46% for the intra-hour scenario and 27% to 32% for the intra-day scenario. Conversely, methods that do not use the blended point forecast exhibit skill scores ranging from 33% to 43% for intra-hour forecasts and 8% to 16% for intra-day forecasts. These results suggest that using (a) blended point forecasts that optimally combine different sources of input data and (b) a post-processing with a statistical method to produce the quantile forecasts is an effective and consistent way to generate high-quality intra-hour or intra-day probabilistic forecasts.Submitted by Rodríguez Eugenia (rodriguezvalverdeeugenia@gmail.com) on 2025-03-06T21:25:30Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf: 2107291 bytes, checksum: 4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bf (MD5)Rejected by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy), reason: chiqui, se me colgó esta porquería. volvelo a mandar a ver si se resetea. gracias!! on 2025-03-10T16:31:34Z (GMT)Submitted by Rodríguez Eugenia (rodriguezvalverdeeugenia@gmail.com) on 2025-03-10T16:37:02Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 26539 bytes, checksum: 3b50ae24bd8bd076d49a70878a8a2d2c (MD5) LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf: 2107291 bytes, checksum: 4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bf (MD5)Rejected by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy), reason: va on 2025-03-17T16:39:56Z (GMT)Submitted by Rodríguez Eugenia (rodriguezvalverdeeugenia@gmail.com) on 2025-03-19T14:00:00Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf: 2107291 bytes, checksum: 4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bf (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2025-03-19T14:51:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf: 2107291 bytes, checksum: 4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bf (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2025-03-19T15:09:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf: 2107291 bytes, checksum: 4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bf (MD5) Previous issue date: 202419 p.application/pdfen_USengElsevierRenewable Energy, Vol. 237 (2024) 121574.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Probabilistic solar forecastingBenchmarking exerciseBlended point forecastCRPSIEA PVPS T16The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.Artículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaLauret, PhilippeAlonso-Suárez, RodrigoAmaro e Silva, RodrigoBoland, JohnDavid, MathieuHerzberg, WiebkeLe Gal La Salle, JosselinLorenz, ElkeVisser, Lennardvan Sark, WilfriedZech, TobiasLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; charset=utf-826973http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/3/license_text8b82caa0c45d60ccf023893f91a60a0aMD53license_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-824942http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/4/license_rdf58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665fMD54ORIGINALLAABDHLLVSZ24.pdfLAABDHLLVSZ24.pdfapplication/pdf2107291http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48702/1/LAABDHLLVSZ24.pdf4e108039d0333d5fc91056c92ef1a1bfMD5120.500.12008/487022025-08-29 09:44:06.356oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/48702VGVybWlub3MgeSBjb25kaWNpb25lcyByZWxhdGl2YXMgYWwgZGVwb3NpdG8gZGUgb2JyYXMKCgpMYXMgb2JyYXMgZGVwb3NpdGFkYXMgZW4gZWwgUmVwb3NpdG9yaW8gc2UgcmlnZW4gcG9yIGxhIE9yZGVuYW56YSBkZSBsb3MgRGVyZWNob3MgZGUgbGEgUHJvcGllZGFkIEludGVsZWN0dWFsICBkZSBsYSBVbml2ZXJzaWRhZCBEZSBMYSBSZXDDumJsaWNhLiAoUmVzLiBOwrogOTEgZGUgQy5ELkMuIGRlIDgvSUlJLzE5OTQg4oCTIEQuTy4gNy9JVi8xOTk0KSB5ICBwb3IgbGEgT3JkZW5hbnphIGRlbCBSZXBvc2l0b3JpbyBBYmllcnRvIGRlIGxhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkIGRlIGxhIFJlcMO6YmxpY2EgKFJlcy4gTsK6IDE2IGRlIEMuRC5DLiBkZSAwNy8xMC8yMDE0KS4gCgpBY2VwdGFuZG8gZWwgYXV0b3IgZXN0b3MgdMOpcm1pbm9zIHkgY29uZGljaW9uZXMgZGUgZGVww7NzaXRvIGVuIENPTElCUkksIGxhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkIGRlIFJlcMO6YmxpY2EgcHJvY2VkZXLDoSBhOiAgCgphKSBhcmNoaXZhciBtw6FzIGRlIHVuYSBjb3BpYSBkZSBsYSBvYnJhIGVuIGxvcyBzZXJ2aWRvcmVzIGRlIGxhIFVuaXZlcnNpZGFkIGEgbG9zIGVmZWN0b3MgZGUgZ2FyYW50aXphciBhY2Nlc28sIHNlZ3VyaWRhZCB5IHByZXNlcnZhY2nDs24KYikgY29udmVydGlyIGxhIG9icmEgYSBvdHJvcyBmb3JtYXRvcyBzaSBmdWVyYSBuZWNlc2FyaW8gIHBhcmEgZmFjaWxpdGFyIHN1IHByZXNlcnZhY2nDs24geSBhY2Nlc2liaWxpZGFkIHNpbiBhbHRlcmFyIHN1IGNvbnRlbmlkby4KYykgcmVhbGl6YXIgbGEgY29tdW5pY2FjacOzbiBww7pibGljYSB5IGRpc3BvbmVyIGVsIGFjY2VzbyBsaWJyZSB5IGdyYXR1aXRvIGEgdHJhdsOpcyBkZSBJbnRlcm5ldCBtZWRpYW50ZSBsYSBwdWJsaWNhY2nDs24gZGUgbGEgb2JyYSBiYWpvIGxhIGxpY2VuY2lhIENyZWF0aXZlIENvbW1vbnMgc2VsZWNjaW9uYWRhIHBvciBlbCBwcm9waW8gYXV0b3IuCgoKRW4gY2FzbyBxdWUgZWwgYXV0b3IgaGF5YSBkaWZ1bmRpZG8geSBkYWRvIGEgcHVibGljaWRhZCBhIGxhIG9icmEgZW4gZm9ybWEgcHJldmlhLCAgcG9kcsOhIHNvbGljaXRhciB1biBwZXLDrW9kbyBkZSBlbWJhcmdvIHNvYnJlIGxhIGRpc3BvbmliaWxpZGFkIHDDumJsaWNhIGRlIGxhIG1pc21hLCBlbCBjdWFsIGNvbWVuemFyw6EgYSBwYXJ0aXIgZGUgbGEgYWNlcHRhY2nDs24gZGUgZXN0ZSBkb2N1bWVudG8geSBoYXN0YSBsYSBmZWNoYSBxdWUgaW5kaXF1ZSAuCgpFbCBhdXRvciBhc2VndXJhIHF1ZSBsYSBvYnJhIG5vIGluZnJpZ2UgbmluZ8O6biBkZXJlY2hvIHNvYnJlIHRlcmNlcm9zLCB5YSBzZWEgZGUgcHJvcGllZGFkIGludGVsZWN0dWFsIG8gY3VhbHF1aWVyIG90cm8uCgpFbCBhdXRvciBnYXJhbnRpemEgcXVlIHNpIGVsIGRvY3VtZW50byBjb250aWVuZSBtYXRlcmlhbGVzIGRlIGxvcyBjdWFsZXMgbm8gdGllbmUgbG9zIGRlcmVjaG9zIGRlIGF1dG9yLCAgaGEgb2J0ZW5pZG8gZWwgcGVybWlzbyBkZWwgcHJvcGlldGFyaW8gZGUgbG9zIGRlcmVjaG9zIGRlIGF1dG9yLCB5IHF1ZSBlc2UgbWF0ZXJpYWwgY3V5b3MgZGVyZWNob3Mgc29uIGRlIHRlcmNlcm9zIGVzdMOhIGNsYXJhbWVudGUgaWRlbnRpZmljYWRvIHkgcmVjb25vY2lkbyBlbiBlbCB0ZXh0byBvIGNvbnRlbmlkbyBkZWwgZG9jdW1lbnRvIGRlcG9zaXRhZG8gZW4gZWwgUmVwb3NpdG9yaW8uCgpFbiBvYnJhcyBkZSBhdXRvcsOtYSBtw7psdGlwbGUgL3NlIHByZXN1bWUvIHF1ZSBlbCBhdXRvciBkZXBvc2l0YW50ZSBkZWNsYXJhIHF1ZSBoYSByZWNhYmFkbyBlbCBjb25zZW50aW1pZW50byBkZSB0b2RvcyBsb3MgYXV0b3JlcyBwYXJhIHB1YmxpY2FybGEgZW4gZWwgUmVwb3NpdG9yaW8sIHNpZW5kbyDDqXN0ZSBlbCDDum5pY28gcmVzcG9uc2FibGUgZnJlbnRlIGEgY3VhbHF1aWVyIHRpcG8gZGUgcmVjbGFtYWNpw7NuIGRlIGxvcyBvdHJvcyBjb2F1dG9yZXMuCgpFbCBhdXRvciBzZXLDoSByZXNwb25zYWJsZSBkZWwgY29udGVuaWRvIGRlIGxvcyBkb2N1bWVudG9zIHF1ZSBkZXBvc2l0YS4gTGEgVURFTEFSIG5vIHNlcsOhIHJlc3BvbnNhYmxlIHBvciBsYXMgZXZlbnR1YWxlcyB2aW9sYWNpb25lcyBhbCBkZXJlY2hvIGRlIHByb3BpZWRhZCBpbnRlbGVjdHVhbCBlbiBxdWUgcHVlZGEgaW5jdXJyaXIgZWwgYXV0b3IuCgpBbnRlIGN1YWxxdWllciBkZW51bmNpYSBkZSB2aW9sYWNpw7NuIGRlIGRlcmVjaG9zIGRlIHByb3BpZWRhZCBpbnRlbGVjdHVhbCwgbGEgVURFTEFSICBhZG9wdGFyw6EgdG9kYXMgbGFzIG1lZGlkYXMgbmVjZXNhcmlhcyBwYXJhIGV2aXRhciBsYSBjb250aW51YWNpw7NuIGRlIGRpY2hhIGluZnJhY2Npw7NuLCBsYXMgcXVlIHBvZHLDoW4gaW5jbHVpciBlbCByZXRpcm8gZGVsIGFjY2VzbyBhIGxvcyBjb250ZW5pZG9zIHkvbyBtZXRhZGF0b3MgZGVsIGRvY3VtZW50byByZXNwZWN0aXZvLgoKTGEgb2JyYSBzZSBwb25kcsOhIGEgZGlzcG9zaWNpw7NuIGRlbCBww7pibGljbyBhIHRyYXbDqXMgZGUgbGFzIGxpY2VuY2lhcyBDcmVhdGl2ZSBDb21tb25zLCBlbCBhdXRvciBwb2Ryw6Egc2VsZWNjaW9uYXIgdW5hIGRlIGxhcyA2IGxpY2VuY2lhcyBkaXNwb25pYmxlczoKCgpBdHJpYnVjacOzbiAoQ0MgLSBCeSk6IFBlcm1pdGUgdXNhciBsYSBvYnJhIHkgZ2VuZXJhciBvYnJhcyBkZXJpdmFkYXMsIGluY2x1c28gY29uIGZpbmVzIGNvbWVyY2lhbGVzLCBzaWVtcHJlIHF1ZSBzZSByZWNvbm96Y2EgYWwgYXV0b3IuCgpBdHJpYnVjacOzbiDigJMgQ29tcGFydGlyIElndWFsIChDQyAtIEJ5LVNBKTogUGVybWl0ZSB1c2FyIGxhIG9icmEgeSBnZW5lcmFyIG9icmFzIGRlcml2YWRhcywgaW5jbHVzbyBjb24gZmluZXMgY29tZXJjaWFsZXMsIHBlcm8gbGEgZGlzdHJpYnVjacOzbiBkZSBsYXMgb2JyYXMgZGVyaXZhZGFzIGRlYmUgaGFjZXJzZSBtZWRpYW50ZSB1bmEgbGljZW5jaWEgaWTDqW50aWNhIGEgbGEgZGUgbGEgb2JyYSBvcmlnaW5hbCwgcmVjb25vY2llbmRvIGEgbG9zIGF1dG9yZXMuCgpBdHJpYnVjacOzbiDigJMgTm8gQ29tZXJjaWFsIChDQyAtIEJ5LU5DKTogUGVybWl0ZSB1c2FyIGxhIG9icmEgeSBnZW5lcmFyIG9icmFzIGRlcml2YWRhcywgc2llbXByZSB5IGN1YW5kbyBlc29zIHVzb3Mgbm8gdGVuZ2FuIGZpbmVzIGNvbWVyY2lhbGVzLCByZWNvbm9jaWVuZG8gYWwgYXV0b3IuCgpBdHJpYnVjacOzbiDigJMgU2luIERlcml2YWRhcyAoQ0MgLSBCeS1ORCk6IFBlcm1pdGUgZWwgdXNvIGRlIGxhIG9icmEsIGluY2x1c28gY29uIGZpbmVzIGNvbWVyY2lhbGVzLCBwZXJvIG5vIHNlIHBlcm1pdGUgZ2VuZXJhciBvYnJhcyBkZXJpdmFkYXMsIGRlYmllbmRvIHJlY29ub2NlciBhbCBhdXRvci4KCkF0cmlidWNpw7NuIOKAkyBObyBDb21lcmNpYWwg4oCTIENvbXBhcnRpciBJZ3VhbCAoQ0Mg4oCTIEJ5LU5DLVNBKTogUGVybWl0ZSB1c2FyIGxhIG9icmEgeSBnZW5lcmFyIG9icmFzIGRlcml2YWRhcywgc2llbXByZSB5IGN1YW5kbyBlc29zIHVzb3Mgbm8gdGVuZ2FuIGZpbmVzIGNvbWVyY2lhbGVzIHkgbGEgZGlzdHJpYnVjacOzbiBkZSBsYXMgb2JyYXMgZGVyaXZhZGFzIHNlIGhhZ2EgbWVkaWFudGUgbGljZW5jaWEgaWTDqW50aWNhIGEgbGEgZGUgbGEgb2JyYSBvcmlnaW5hbCwgcmVjb25vY2llbmRvIGEgbG9zIGF1dG9yZXMuCgpBdHJpYnVjacOzbiDigJMgTm8gQ29tZXJjaWFsIOKAkyBTaW4gRGVyaXZhZGFzIChDQyAtIEJ5LU5DLU5EKTogUGVybWl0ZSB1c2FyIGxhIG9icmEsIHBlcm8gbm8gc2UgcGVybWl0ZSBnZW5lcmFyIG9icmFzIGRlcml2YWRhcyB5IG5vIHNlIHBlcm1pdGUgdXNvIGNvbiBmaW5lcyBjb21lcmNpYWxlcywgZGViaWVuZG8gcmVjb25vY2VyIGFsIGF1dG9yLgoKTG9zIHVzb3MgcHJldmlzdG9zIGVuIGxhcyBsaWNlbmNpYXMgaW5jbHV5ZW4gbGEgZW5hamVuYWNpw7NuLCByZXByb2R1Y2Npw7NuLCBjb211bmljYWNpw7NuLCBwdWJsaWNhY2nDs24sIGRpc3RyaWJ1Y2nDs24geSBwdWVzdGEgYSBkaXNwb3NpY2nDs24gZGVsIHDDumJsaWNvLiBMYSBjcmVhY2nDs24gZGUgb2JyYXMgZGVyaXZhZGFzIGluY2x1eWUgbGEgYWRhcHRhY2nDs24sIHRyYWR1Y2Npw7NuIHkgZWwgcmVtaXguCgpDdWFuZG8gc2Ugc2VsZWNjaW9uZSB1bmEgbGljZW5jaWEgcXVlIGhhYmlsaXRlIHVzb3MgY29tZXJjaWFsZXMsIGVsIGRlcMOzc2l0byBkZWJlcsOhIHNlciBhY29tcGHDsWFkbyBkZWwgYXZhbCBkZWwgamVyYXJjYSBtw6F4aW1vIGRlbCBTZXJ2aWNpbyBjb3JyZXNwb25kaWVudGUuCg==Institucionalhttps://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uyUniversidadhttps://udelar.edu.uy/https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/oai/requestkarina.camps@seciu.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:47712025-08-29T12:44:06COLIBRI - Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
Lauret, Philippe
Probabilistic solar forecasting
Benchmarking exercise
Blended point forecast
CRPS
IEA PVPS T16
status_str publishedVersion
title The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
title_full The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
title_fullStr The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
title_full_unstemmed The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
title_short The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
title_sort The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts : A probabilistic benchmarking exercise.
topic Probabilistic solar forecasting
Benchmarking exercise
Blended point forecast
CRPS
IEA PVPS T16
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48702
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574