Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework.
Resumen:
Accurate solar resource forecasting remains a challenge. Electricity grid applications require both days-ahead and intra-day prediction. Satellite-based methods are known to be the best option for hourly intra-day solar forecasts up to some hours ahead. An adapted Deep Learning (DL) method has been recently reported to outperform the traditional Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) strategy. This article analyzes the utilization of a well-documented computer vision DL architecture, the U-Net in various forms, for the satellite Earth albedo forecast problem (cloudiness), a straightforward proxy for solar irradiance forecast. It is shown that the U-Net performs better than advanced and optimized CMV techniques and previous art IrradianceNet, setting it at the state-of-the-art. The tests are done over the Pampa Húmeda region of southeast South America, an area in which challenging cloud conditions are frequent. The data for this study are GOES-16 visible channel images. These images present a finer spatial (km/pixel) and temporal (10 min) resolution than previously explored data sources for solar forecasting. Moreover, the image size used here is bigger (1024 × 1024 pixels) and the predictions reach further into the future (5 h) than in previous works. The analysis includes several ablation studies, involving different architectures, optimization objectives, inputs, and network sizes. The U-Net is optimized for direct and differential image prediction, being the latter a better-performing option. More notably, the U-Net models are shown to be able to predict cloud extinction, something that has been a barrier for CMV methods.
| 2023 | |
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Solar forecast U-Net Deep learning Satellite images GOES-16 satellite |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/44429 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1872865324148195328 |
|---|---|
| author | Marchesoni-Acland, Franco |
| author2 | Herrera, Andrés Mozo, Franco Camiruaga, Ignacio Castro, Alberto Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo |
| author2_role | author author author author author |
| author_facet | Marchesoni-Acland, Franco Herrera, Andrés Mozo, Franco Camiruaga, Ignacio Castro, Alberto Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Marchesoni-Acland Franco, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Herrera Andrés, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Mozo Franco, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Camiruaga Ignacio, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Castro Alberto, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Marchesoni-Acland, Franco Herrera, Andrés Mozo, Franco Camiruaga, Ignacio Castro, Alberto Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-06-17T17:16:36Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-06-17T17:16:36Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2023 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Accurate solar resource forecasting remains a challenge. Electricity grid applications require both days-ahead and intra-day prediction. Satellite-based methods are known to be the best option for hourly intra-day solar forecasts up to some hours ahead. An adapted Deep Learning (DL) method has been recently reported to outperform the traditional Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) strategy. This article analyzes the utilization of a well-documented computer vision DL architecture, the U-Net in various forms, for the satellite Earth albedo forecast problem (cloudiness), a straightforward proxy for solar irradiance forecast. It is shown that the U-Net performs better than advanced and optimized CMV techniques and previous art IrradianceNet, setting it at the state-of-the-art. The tests are done over the Pampa Húmeda region of southeast South America, an area in which challenging cloud conditions are frequent. The data for this study are GOES-16 visible channel images. These images present a finer spatial (km/pixel) and temporal (10 min) resolution than previously explored data sources for solar forecasting. Moreover, the image size used here is bigger (1024 × 1024 pixels) and the predictions reach further into the future (5 h) than in previous works. The analysis includes several ablation studies, involving different architectures, optimization objectives, inputs, and network sizes. The U-Net is optimized for direct and differential image prediction, being the latter a better-performing option. More notably, the U-Net models are shown to be able to predict cloud extinction, something that has been a barrier for CMV methods. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 30 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Marchesoni-Acland, F., Herrera, A., Mozo, F. y otros. Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Solar Energy, vol. 262, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.111820. |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/44429 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Solar Energy, vol. 262, 2023. |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Solar forecast U-Net Deep learning Satellite images GOES-16 satellite |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Preprint |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion |
| description | Accurate solar resource forecasting remains a challenge. Electricity grid applications require both days-ahead and intra-day prediction. Satellite-based methods are known to be the best option for hourly intra-day solar forecasts up to some hours ahead. An adapted Deep Learning (DL) method has been recently reported to outperform the traditional Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) strategy. This article analyzes the utilization of a well-documented computer vision DL architecture, the U-Net in various forms, for the satellite Earth albedo forecast problem (cloudiness), a straightforward proxy for solar irradiance forecast. It is shown that the U-Net performs better than advanced and optimized CMV techniques and previous art IrradianceNet, setting it at the state-of-the-art. The tests are done over the Pampa Húmeda region of southeast South America, an area in which challenging cloud conditions are frequent. The data for this study are GOES-16 visible channel images. These images present a finer spatial (km/pixel) and temporal (10 min) resolution than previously explored data sources for solar forecasting. Moreover, the image size used here is bigger (1024 × 1024 pixels) and the predictions reach further into the future (5 h) than in previous works. The analysis includes several ablation studies, involving different architectures, optimization objectives, inputs, and network sizes. The U-Net is optimized for direct and differential image prediction, being the latter a better-performing option. More notably, the U-Net models are shown to be able to predict cloud extinction, something that has been a barrier for CMV methods. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | preprint |
| id | COLIBRI_700583686933ebeada1997a6ddca1b52 |
| identifier_str_mv | Marchesoni-Acland, F., Herrera, A., Mozo, F. y otros. Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Solar Energy, vol. 262, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.111820. |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/44429 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | Marchesoni-Acland Franco, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Herrera Andrés, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Mozo Franco, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Camiruaga Ignacio, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Castro Alberto, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.2024-06-17T17:16:36Z2024-06-17T17:16:36Z2023Marchesoni-Acland, F., Herrera, A., Mozo, F. y otros. Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Solar Energy, vol. 262, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.111820.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/44429Accurate solar resource forecasting remains a challenge. Electricity grid applications require both days-ahead and intra-day prediction. Satellite-based methods are known to be the best option for hourly intra-day solar forecasts up to some hours ahead. An adapted Deep Learning (DL) method has been recently reported to outperform the traditional Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) strategy. This article analyzes the utilization of a well-documented computer vision DL architecture, the U-Net in various forms, for the satellite Earth albedo forecast problem (cloudiness), a straightforward proxy for solar irradiance forecast. It is shown that the U-Net performs better than advanced and optimized CMV techniques and previous art IrradianceNet, setting it at the state-of-the-art. The tests are done over the Pampa Húmeda region of southeast South America, an area in which challenging cloud conditions are frequent. The data for this study are GOES-16 visible channel images. These images present a finer spatial (km/pixel) and temporal (10 min) resolution than previously explored data sources for solar forecasting. Moreover, the image size used here is bigger (1024 × 1024 pixels) and the predictions reach further into the future (5 h) than in previous works. The analysis includes several ablation studies, involving different architectures, optimization objectives, inputs, and network sizes. The U-Net is optimized for direct and differential image prediction, being the latter a better-performing option. More notably, the U-Net models are shown to be able to predict cloud extinction, something that has been a barrier for CMV methods.Submitted by Berón Cecilia (cberon@fing.edu.uy) on 2024-06-14T17:42:42Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 25790 bytes, checksum: 489f03e71d39068f329bdec8798bce58 (MD5) MHMCCA23.pdf: 5198744 bytes, checksum: 2621f64e750bf2503ae1db0946d607f3 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2024-06-17T12:39:07Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 25790 bytes, checksum: 489f03e71d39068f329bdec8798bce58 (MD5) MHMCCA23.pdf: 5198744 bytes, checksum: 2621f64e750bf2503ae1db0946d607f3 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2024-06-17T17:16:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 25790 bytes, checksum: 489f03e71d39068f329bdec8798bce58 (MD5) MHMCCA23.pdf: 5198744 bytes, checksum: 2621f64e750bf2503ae1db0946d607f3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202330 p.application/pdfenengSolar Energy, vol. 262, 2023.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)Solar forecastU-NetDeep learningSatellite imagesGOES-16 satelliteDeep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework.Preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaMarchesoni-Acland, FrancoHerrera, AndrésMozo, FrancoCamiruaga, IgnacioCastro, AlbertoAlonso-Suárez, RodrigoLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/44429/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-850http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/44429/2/license_urla006180e3f5b2ad0b88185d14284c0e0MD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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públicahttps://udelar.edu.uy/https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/oai/requestkarina.camps@seciu.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:47712024-06-17T17:16:36COLIBRI - Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. Marchesoni-Acland, Franco Solar forecast U-Net Deep learning Satellite images GOES-16 satellite |
| status_str | submittedVersion |
| title | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| title_full | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| title_fullStr | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| title_short | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| title_sort | Deep learning methods for intra-day cloudiness prediction using geostationary 2 satellite images in a solar forecasting framework. |
| topic | Solar forecast U-Net Deep learning Satellite images GOES-16 satellite |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/44429 |