Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe

Yao, Wu - Bo, Wen - Shanshan, Li - Colistro, Valentina

Resumen:

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: -0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29-3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76-4.50) of total deaths for Q1-Q4 (first quartile-fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25-9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: -0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

Detalles Bibliográficos
2022
Heat
Modification effect
Mortality
Temperature variability
TEMPERATURAS EXTREMAS
CALOR
SALUD GLOBAL
MORTALIDAD
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/55133
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
Resumen:
Sumario:Yao Wu 1 2, Bo Wen 1 2, Shanshan Li 1 2, Antonio Gasparrini 3 4 5, Shilu Tong 6 7 8 9, Ala Overcenco 10, Aleš Urban 11 12, Alexandra Schneider 13, Alireza Entezari 2 14, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 3 15 16, Antonella Zanobetti 17, Antonis Analitis 18, Ariana Zeka 19, Aurelio Tobias 20 21, Barrak Alahmad 17, Ben Armstrong 3, Bertil Forsberg 22, Carmen Íñiguez 23 24, Caroline Ameling 25, César De la Cruz Valencia 26, Christofer Åström 22, Danny Houthuijs 25, Do Van Dung 27, Dominic Royé 24 28, Ene Indermitte 29, Eric Lavigne 30 31, Fatemeh Mayvaneh 14, Fiorella Acquaotta 32, Francesca de'Donato 33, Francesco Sera 34, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar 35 36, Haidong Kan 37, Hans Orru 29, Ho Kim 38, Iulian-Horia Holobaca 39, Jan Kyselý 11 12, Joana Madureira 40 41 42, Joel Schwartz 17, Klea Katsouyanni 18 43, Magali Hurtado-Diaz 26, Martina S Ragettli 44 45, Masahiro Hashizume 46, Mathilde Pascal 47, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho 48, Noah Scovronick 49, Paola Michelozzi 33, Patrick Goodman 50, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva 51, Rosana Abrutzky 52, Samuel Osorio 53, Tran Ngoc Dang 27, Valentina Colistro 54, Veronika Huber 55 56, Whanhee Lee 57 58, Xerxes Seposo 21, Yasushi Honda 59, Michelle L Bell 57, Yuming Guo 1 2