Countries in the hamster’s wheel? : Nurkse-Duesenberry demonstration effects and the determinants of savings
Resumen:
Throughout the world, stable regional patterns of private savings are hard to come by. For example, Latin America’s saving rates have been, for a long time, below those of countries with similar levels of development. Those same savings rates have been growing lately, in almost as intriguing manner. These stylized facts remain intellectual puzzles and development policy challenges. In addition, while it may be true that savings often seem to follow rather than lead the growth process, it has been shown that in the long run, it is not possible to grow sustainably with domestic savings persistently below investments. For these and other scientific considerations, understanding the determinants of savings is an important research objective that has previously escaped analysts that tried to make sense of results from varied, distinct models. This article explores one set of variables much aligned with the rise of behavioral economics, which could add to the literature on the macroeconomics of savings. Specifically, the article revisits the hypothesis that, as there is evidence of emulation patterns between consumers, there might be international (macroeconomic) “emulation”. The interdependence would arise from consumers basing their consumption decisions on relative rather absolute income, their choices incorporating increasing amounts of information about consumption standards in rich countries, and this pushing up propensities to consume and down savings ratios. We test demonstration effect theories exploiting recent international data on savings, incomes, and means of exposure of global consumers to the evolution of savings patterns. With the resulting country panels, we find some evidence in favour of demonstration effect for the period when television was spreading around the world and much consistent with the same effect for the more recent times when the Internet was rapidly becoming a preferred means of discovering foreign consumption standards. We speculate about the conjectural mechanisms that could make sense of the results.
El comportamiento de las tasas de ahorro a lo largo del tiempo, así como la comparación entre países, permanece como un puzle aún sin resolver, tanto para la academia como para los hacedores de política. Si bien, cierta evidencia señala que el ahorro suele ser un resultado del crecimiento, más que un determinante, en el largo plazo es muy difícil pensar que un país alance un crecimiento sostenido si la tasa de ahorro doméstico permanece sistemáticamente por debajo de sus niveles de inversión. Este artículo propone contribuir en este campo. Explora el rol que juegan un conjunto de factores derivados de la literatura sobre economía comportamental que permiten complementar los aportes de las teorías macroeconómicas sobre los determinantes del ahorro. En particular, en este articulo se revisita la hipótesis de que, así como se encuentran comportamiento emulativos entre consumidores, es posible explorar la existencia de patrones de emulación internacionales (entre países). Así, la interdependencia se explica porque los individuos toman sus decisiones de consumo en base a su ingreso relativo, más que absoluto, incorporando información sobre las pautas de consumo de los países ricos, cuyo efecto es aumentar la propensión a consumir y, por ende, disminuir las tasas de ahorro. Este trabajo propone testear el efecto demostración internacional sobre las tasas de ahorro a partir de un análisis de datos de panel para un conjunto de 169 países en las últimas décadas (1980-2013). Para esto propone dos medidas de exposición a pautas de consumo globales -la tenencia de TV y el uso de internet-. Los resultados de las estimaciones aportan evidencia a favor de la existencia del efecto demostración, y la misma es más robusta cuando se utiliza internet como medida de exposición. Además, en el trabajo aportamos un conjunto de conjeturas sobre los mecanismos que explican estos resultados.
2018 | |
Private saving rates Demonstration effect Behavioral economics Ahorro privado Efecto demostración Economía del comportamiento |
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Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/19010 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución – No Comercial – Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND) |
Sumario: | Throughout the world, stable regional patterns of private savings are hard to come by. For example, Latin America’s saving rates have been, for a long time, below those of countries with similar levels of development. Those same savings rates have been growing lately, in almost as intriguing manner. These stylized facts remain intellectual puzzles and development policy challenges. In addition, while it may be true that savings often seem to follow rather than lead the growth process, it has been shown that in the long run, it is not possible to grow sustainably with domestic savings persistently below investments. For these and other scientific considerations, understanding the determinants of savings is an important research objective that has previously escaped analysts that tried to make sense of results from varied, distinct models. This article explores one set of variables much aligned with the rise of behavioral economics, which could add to the literature on the macroeconomics of savings. Specifically, the article revisits the hypothesis that, as there is evidence of emulation patterns between consumers, there might be international (macroeconomic) “emulation”. The interdependence would arise from consumers basing their consumption decisions on relative rather absolute income, their choices incorporating increasing amounts of information about consumption standards in rich countries, and this pushing up propensities to consume and down savings ratios. We test demonstration effect theories exploiting recent international data on savings, incomes, and means of exposure of global consumers to the evolution of savings patterns. With the resulting country panels, we find some evidence in favour of demonstration effect for the period when television was spreading around the world and much consistent with the same effect for the more recent times when the Internet was rapidly becoming a preferred means of discovering foreign consumption standards. We speculate about the conjectural mechanisms that could make sense of the results. |
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