Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.

Massaferro Saquieres, Pablo - Di Martino, Matías - Fernández, Alicia

Resumen:

The detection of non-technical losses (NTL) is a very important economic issue for power utilities. Diverse machine learning strategies have been proposed to support electric power companies tackling this problem. Methods performance is often measured using standard cost-insensitive metrics, such as the accuracy, true positive ratio, AUC, or F1. In contrast, we propose to design a NTL detection solution that maximizes the effective economic return. To that end, both the income recovered and the inspection cost are considered. Furthermore, the proposed framework can be used to design the infrastructure of the division in charge of performing customers inspections. Then, assisting not only short term decisions, e.g., which customer should be inspected first, but also the elaboration of long term strategies, e.g., planning of NTL company budget. The problem is formulated in a Bayesian risk framework. Experimental validation is presented using a large dataset of real users from the Uruguayan utility. The results obtained show that the proposed method can boost companies profit and provide a highly efficient and realistic countermeasure to NTL. Moreover, the proposed pipeline is general and can be easily adapted to other practical problems.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2020
Economic return
Non-technical losses
Electricity theft
Automatic fraud detection
Example-cost-sensitiv
Economics
Companies
Inspection
Meters
History
Machine learning
Support vector machines
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24057
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
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author Massaferro Saquieres, Pablo
author2 Di Martino, Matías
Fernández, Alicia
author2_role author
author
author_facet Massaferro Saquieres, Pablo
Di Martino, Matías
Fernández, Alicia
author_role author
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dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Massaferro Saquieres Pablo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.
Di Martino Matías, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.
Fernández Alicia, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.
dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv Uruguay
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Massaferro Saquieres, Pablo
Di Martino, Matías
Fernández, Alicia
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-25T17:00:06Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-25T17:00:06Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv The detection of non-technical losses (NTL) is a very important economic issue for power utilities. Diverse machine learning strategies have been proposed to support electric power companies tackling this problem. Methods performance is often measured using standard cost-insensitive metrics, such as the accuracy, true positive ratio, AUC, or F1. In contrast, we propose to design a NTL detection solution that maximizes the effective economic return. To that end, both the income recovered and the inspection cost are considered. Furthermore, the proposed framework can be used to design the infrastructure of the division in charge of performing customers inspections. Then, assisting not only short term decisions, e.g., which customer should be inspected first, but also the elaboration of long term strategies, e.g., planning of NTL company budget. The problem is formulated in a Bayesian risk framework. Experimental validation is presented using a large dataset of real users from the Uruguayan utility. The results obtained show that the proposed method can boost companies profit and provide a highly efficient and realistic countermeasure to NTL. Moreover, the proposed pipeline is general and can be easily adapted to other practical problems.
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv Publicado en IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 703-710, Jan. 2020.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 8 p.
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dc.identifier.citation.en.fl_str_mv Massaferro Saquieres, P., Di Martino, M. y Fernández, A. Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return [Preprint]. Publicado en : IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 703-710, Jan. 2020. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2019.2928276
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24057
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.en.fl_str_mv Economic return
Non-technical losses
Electricity theft
Automatic fraud detection
Example-cost-sensitiv
Economics
Companies
Inspection
Meters
History
Machine learning
Support vector machines
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Preprint
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
description Publicado en IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 703-710, Jan. 2020.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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identifier_str_mv Massaferro Saquieres, P., Di Martino, M. y Fernández, A. Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return [Preprint]. Publicado en : IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 703-710, Jan. 2020. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2019.2928276
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publishDate 2020
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
spelling Massaferro Saquieres Pablo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Di Martino Matías, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Fernández Alicia, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Uruguay2020-05-25T17:00:06Z2020-05-25T17:00:06Z2020Massaferro Saquieres, P., Di Martino, M. y Fernández, A. Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return [Preprint]. Publicado en : IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 703-710, Jan. 2020. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2019.2928276https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24057Publicado en IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 703-710, Jan. 2020.The detection of non-technical losses (NTL) is a very important economic issue for power utilities. Diverse machine learning strategies have been proposed to support electric power companies tackling this problem. Methods performance is often measured using standard cost-insensitive metrics, such as the accuracy, true positive ratio, AUC, or F1. In contrast, we propose to design a NTL detection solution that maximizes the effective economic return. To that end, both the income recovered and the inspection cost are considered. Furthermore, the proposed framework can be used to design the infrastructure of the division in charge of performing customers inspections. Then, assisting not only short term decisions, e.g., which customer should be inspected first, but also the elaboration of long term strategies, e.g., planning of NTL company budget. The problem is formulated in a Bayesian risk framework. Experimental validation is presented using a large dataset of real users from the Uruguayan utility. The results obtained show that the proposed method can boost companies profit and provide a highly efficient and realistic countermeasure to NTL. Moreover, the proposed pipeline is general and can be easily adapted to other practical problems.Submitted by Ribeiro Jorge (jribeiro@fing.edu.uy) on 2020-05-22T19:50:07Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) MDF20.pdf: 924074 bytes, checksum: 00d6a50bcad3b38d1e3457d308569ef3 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2020-05-25T16:36:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) MDF20.pdf: 924074 bytes, checksum: 00d6a50bcad3b38d1e3457d308569ef3 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@fic.edu.uy) on 2020-05-25T17:00:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) MDF20.pdf: 924074 bytes, checksum: 00d6a50bcad3b38d1e3457d308569ef3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 20208 p.application/pdfenengLas obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)Economic returnNon-technical lossesElectricity theftAutomatic fraud detectionExample-cost-sensitivEconomicsCompaniesInspectionMetersHistoryMachine learningSupport vector machinesFraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.Preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaMassaferro Saquieres, PabloDi Martino, MatíasFernández, AliciaLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/24057/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
Massaferro Saquieres, Pablo
Economic return
Non-technical losses
Electricity theft
Automatic fraud detection
Example-cost-sensitiv
Economics
Companies
Inspection
Meters
History
Machine learning
Support vector machines
status_str submittedVersion
title Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
title_full Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
title_fullStr Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
title_full_unstemmed Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
title_short Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
title_sort Fraud detection in electric power distribution : an approach that maximizes the economic return.
topic Economic return
Non-technical losses
Electricity theft
Automatic fraud detection
Example-cost-sensitiv
Economics
Companies
Inspection
Meters
History
Machine learning
Support vector machines
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24057