Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
Resumen:
Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.
| 2024 | |
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Climate change Extreme cold Hemorrhagic stroke Ischemic stroke Temperature ANCIANO PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS CALOR EXTREMO MORTALIDAD ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO GOLPE DE CALOR FRÍO EXTREMO |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56434 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1877555280846258176 |
|---|---|
| author | Alahmad, Barrak |
| author2 | Khraishah, Haitham Kamineni, Meghana Colistro, Valentina |
| author2_role | author author author |
| author_facet | Alahmad, Barrak Khraishah, Haitham Kamineni, Meghana Colistro, Valentina |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Alahmad Barrak, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (E.E.U.U.); Dasman Diabetes Institute (Kuwait) Khraishah Haitham, University of Maryland (E.E.U.U.). Maryland Medical Center. Cardiology Division Kamineni Meghana, Harvard Medical School (E.E.U.U.) Colistro Valentina, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Medicina. Unidad Académica de Métodos Cuantitativos |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Alahmad, Barrak Khraishah, Haitham Kamineni, Meghana Colistro, Valentina |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2026-08-21T16:14:27Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2026-08-21T16:14:27Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2024 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries. |
| dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv | Barrak Alahmad 1 2, Haitham Khraishah 3, Meghana Kamineni 4, Dominic Royé 5 6, Stefania I Papatheodorou 7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8 9, Yuming Guo 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Ben Armstrong 13, Francesco Sera 14, Aaron S Bernstein 1, Antonella Zanobetti 1, Eric Garshick 15 16, Joel Schwartz 1, Michelle L Bell 17, Fahd Al-Mulla 2, Petros Koutrakis 1, Antonio Gasparrini 18; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network Affiliations 1Environmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 2Dasman Diabetes Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait (B.A., F.A.-M.). 3Cardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.K.). 4Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.K.). 5Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 6CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 7Department of Epidemiology (S.I.P.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 8Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 9Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 10Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G.). 11School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.). 12Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa (E.L.). 13Department of Public Health Environments and Society (B.A.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. 14Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.). 15Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.). 16Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (E.G.). 17School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B.). 18Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.G.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. Collaborators Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network: Achilleos Souzana, Fiorella Acquaotta, Shih-Chun Pan, Micheline Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Valentina Colistro, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Francesca K De' Donato, Alireza Entezari, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Ene Indermitte, Carmen Íñiguez, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Shanshan Li, Joana Madureira, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Hans Orru, Ala Overcenco, Martina S Ragettli, Niilo R I Ryti, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Noah Scovronick, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira Silva, Massimo Stafoggia, Aurelio Tobias |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 19 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Kamineni M y otros. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis. Stroke [en línea]. 2024;55(7):1847-1856 |
| dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.045751 |
| dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv | 1524-4628 |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56434 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Stroke. 2024;55(7):1847-1856 |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Climate change Extreme cold Hemorrhagic stroke Ischemic stroke Temperature |
| dc.subject.other.es.fl_str_mv | ANCIANO PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS CALOR EXTREMO MORTALIDAD ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO GOLPE DE CALOR FRÍO EXTREMO |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Barrak Alahmad 1 2, Haitham Khraishah 3, Meghana Kamineni 4, Dominic Royé 5 6, Stefania I Papatheodorou 7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8 9, Yuming Guo 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Ben Armstrong 13, Francesco Sera 14, Aaron S Bernstein 1, Antonella Zanobetti 1, Eric Garshick 15 16, Joel Schwartz 1, Michelle L Bell 17, Fahd Al-Mulla 2, Petros Koutrakis 1, Antonio Gasparrini 18; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | COLIBRI_49a35d2e14caff99e3bfbf7eae401146 |
| identifier_str_mv | Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Kamineni M y otros. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis. Stroke [en línea]. 2024;55(7):1847-1856 10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.045751 1524-4628 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/56434 |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | Alahmad Barrak, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (E.E.U.U.); Dasman Diabetes Institute (Kuwait)Khraishah Haitham, University of Maryland (E.E.U.U.). Maryland Medical Center. Cardiology DivisionKamineni Meghana, Harvard Medical School (E.E.U.U.)Colistro Valentina, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Medicina. Unidad Académica de Métodos Cuantitativos2026-08-21T16:14:27Z2026-08-21T16:14:27Z2024Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Kamineni M y otros. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis. Stroke [en línea]. 2024;55(7):1847-1856https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/5643410.1161/STROKEAHA.123.0457511524-4628Barrak Alahmad 1 2, Haitham Khraishah 3, Meghana Kamineni 4, Dominic Royé 5 6, Stefania I Papatheodorou 7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8 9, Yuming Guo 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Ben Armstrong 13, Francesco Sera 14, Aaron S Bernstein 1, Antonella Zanobetti 1, Eric Garshick 15 16, Joel Schwartz 1, Michelle L Bell 17, Fahd Al-Mulla 2, Petros Koutrakis 1, Antonio Gasparrini 18; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) NetworkAffiliations 1Environmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 2Dasman Diabetes Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait (B.A., F.A.-M.). 3Cardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.K.). 4Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.K.). 5Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 6CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 7Department of Epidemiology (S.I.P.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 8Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 9Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 10Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G.). 11School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.). 12Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa (E.L.). 13Department of Public Health Environments and Society (B.A.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. 14Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.). 15Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.). 16Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (E.G.). 17School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B.). 18Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.G.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.Collaborators Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network: Achilleos Souzana, Fiorella Acquaotta, Shih-Chun Pan, Micheline Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Valentina Colistro, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Francesca K De' Donato, Alireza Entezari, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Ene Indermitte, Carmen Íñiguez, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Shanshan Li, Joana Madureira, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Hans Orru, Ala Overcenco, Martina S Ragettli, Niilo R I Ryti, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Noah Scovronick, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira Silva, Massimo Stafoggia, Aurelio TobiasBackground: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.Submitted by Almiñana María Cecilia (marialminana@gmail.com) on 2026-08-20T14:23:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 27293 bytes, checksum: d62648cf14c1e37917d392ac87012955 (MD5) Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality.pdf: 8132762 bytes, checksum: 295daf3e7758ba6bbb79d91ab6f72022 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Almiñana María Cecilia (marialminana@gmail.com) on 2026-08-20T15:44:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 27293 bytes, checksum: d62648cf14c1e37917d392ac87012955 (MD5) Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality.pdf: 8132762 bytes, checksum: 295daf3e7758ba6bbb79d91ab6f72022 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2026-08-21T16:14:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 27293 bytes, checksum: d62648cf14c1e37917d392ac87012955 (MD5) Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality.pdf: 8132762 bytes, checksum: 295daf3e7758ba6bbb79d91ab6f72022 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202419 p.application/pdfenengLippincott Williams & WilkinsStroke. 2024;55(7):1847-1856Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)Climate changeExtreme coldHemorrhagic strokeIschemic strokeTemperatureANCIANOPERSONA DE MEDIANA EDADESTUDIOS CRUZADOSCALOR EXTREMOMORTALIDADACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICOEFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZOACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICOGOLPE DE CALORFRÍO EXTREMOExtreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country AnalysisArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaAlahmad, BarrakKhraishah, HaithamKamineni, MeghanaColistro, ValentinaLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/56434/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis Alahmad, Barrak Climate change Extreme cold Hemorrhagic stroke Ischemic stroke Temperature ANCIANO PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS CALOR EXTREMO MORTALIDAD ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO GOLPE DE CALOR FRÍO EXTREMO |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| title_full | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| title_short | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| title_sort | Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis |
| topic | Climate change Extreme cold Hemorrhagic stroke Ischemic stroke Temperature ANCIANO PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS CALOR EXTREMO MORTALIDAD ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO GOLPE DE CALOR FRÍO EXTREMO |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56434 |