Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis

Alahmad, Barrak - Khraishah, Haitham - Kamineni, Meghana - Colistro, Valentina

Resumen:

Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.

Detalles Bibliográficos
2024
Climate change
Extreme cold
Hemorrhagic stroke
Ischemic stroke
Temperature
ANCIANO
PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD
ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS
CALOR EXTREMO
MORTALIDAD
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO
EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO
GOLPE DE CALOR
FRÍO EXTREMO
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56434
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
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author Alahmad, Barrak
author2 Khraishah, Haitham
Kamineni, Meghana
Colistro, Valentina
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author_facet Alahmad, Barrak
Khraishah, Haitham
Kamineni, Meghana
Colistro, Valentina
author_role author
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dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Alahmad Barrak, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (E.E.U.U.); Dasman Diabetes Institute (Kuwait)
Khraishah Haitham, University of Maryland (E.E.U.U.). Maryland Medical Center. Cardiology Division
Kamineni Meghana, Harvard Medical School (E.E.U.U.)
Colistro Valentina, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Medicina. Unidad Académica de Métodos Cuantitativos
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Alahmad, Barrak
Khraishah, Haitham
Kamineni, Meghana
Colistro, Valentina
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2026-08-21T16:14:27Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2026-08-21T16:14:27Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2024
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Background: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv Barrak Alahmad 1 2, Haitham Khraishah 3, Meghana Kamineni 4, Dominic Royé 5 6, Stefania I Papatheodorou 7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8 9, Yuming Guo 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Ben Armstrong 13, Francesco Sera 14, Aaron S Bernstein 1, Antonella Zanobetti 1, Eric Garshick 15 16, Joel Schwartz 1, Michelle L Bell 17, Fahd Al-Mulla 2, Petros Koutrakis 1, Antonio Gasparrini 18; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network
Affiliations 1Environmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 2Dasman Diabetes Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait (B.A., F.A.-M.). 3Cardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.K.). 4Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.K.). 5Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 6CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 7Department of Epidemiology (S.I.P.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 8Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 9Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 10Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G.). 11School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.). 12Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa (E.L.). 13Department of Public Health Environments and Society (B.A.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. 14Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.). 15Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.). 16Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (E.G.). 17School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B.). 18Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.G.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.
Collaborators Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network: Achilleos Souzana, Fiorella Acquaotta, Shih-Chun Pan, Micheline Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Valentina Colistro, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Francesca K De' Donato, Alireza Entezari, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Ene Indermitte, Carmen Íñiguez, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Shanshan Li, Joana Madureira, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Hans Orru, Ala Overcenco, Martina S Ragettli, Niilo R I Ryti, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Noah Scovronick, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira Silva, Massimo Stafoggia, Aurelio Tobias
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 19 p.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Kamineni M y otros. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis. Stroke [en línea]. 2024;55(7):1847-1856
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.045751
dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv 1524-4628
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56434
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Stroke. 2024;55(7):1847-1856
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Climate change
Extreme cold
Hemorrhagic stroke
Ischemic stroke
Temperature
dc.subject.other.es.fl_str_mv ANCIANO
PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD
ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS
CALOR EXTREMO
MORTALIDAD
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO
EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO
GOLPE DE CALOR
FRÍO EXTREMO
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Barrak Alahmad 1 2, Haitham Khraishah 3, Meghana Kamineni 4, Dominic Royé 5 6, Stefania I Papatheodorou 7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8 9, Yuming Guo 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Ben Armstrong 13, Francesco Sera 14, Aaron S Bernstein 1, Antonella Zanobetti 1, Eric Garshick 15 16, Joel Schwartz 1, Michelle L Bell 17, Fahd Al-Mulla 2, Petros Koutrakis 1, Antonio Gasparrini 18; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format article
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identifier_str_mv Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Kamineni M y otros. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis. Stroke [en línea]. 2024;55(7):1847-1856
10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.045751
1524-4628
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
language_invalid_str_mv en
network_acronym_str COLIBRI
network_name_str COLIBRI
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publishDate 2024
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
spelling Alahmad Barrak, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (E.E.U.U.); Dasman Diabetes Institute (Kuwait)Khraishah Haitham, University of Maryland (E.E.U.U.). Maryland Medical Center. Cardiology DivisionKamineni Meghana, Harvard Medical School (E.E.U.U.)Colistro Valentina, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Medicina. Unidad Académica de Métodos Cuantitativos2026-08-21T16:14:27Z2026-08-21T16:14:27Z2024Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Kamineni M y otros. Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis. Stroke [en línea]. 2024;55(7):1847-1856https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/5643410.1161/STROKEAHA.123.0457511524-4628Barrak Alahmad 1 2, Haitham Khraishah 3, Meghana Kamineni 4, Dominic Royé 5 6, Stefania I Papatheodorou 7, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera 8 9, Yuming Guo 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Ben Armstrong 13, Francesco Sera 14, Aaron S Bernstein 1, Antonella Zanobetti 1, Eric Garshick 15 16, Joel Schwartz 1, Michelle L Bell 17, Fahd Al-Mulla 2, Petros Koutrakis 1, Antonio Gasparrini 18; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) NetworkAffiliations 1Environmental Health Department (B.A., A.S.B., A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 2Dasman Diabetes Institute, Kuwait City, Kuwait (B.A., F.A.-M.). 3Cardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.K.). 4Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.K.). 5Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 6CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain (D.R.). 7Department of Epidemiology (S.I.P.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA. 8Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 9Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (A.M.V.-C.), University of Bern, Switzerland. 10Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G.). 11School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.). 12Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa (E.L.). 13Department of Public Health Environments and Society (B.A.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom. 14Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.). 15Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.). 16Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (E.G.). 17School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B.). 18Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.G.), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom.Collaborators Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Network: Achilleos Souzana, Fiorella Acquaotta, Shih-Chun Pan, Micheline Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Valentina Colistro, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Francesca K De' Donato, Alireza Entezari, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Ene Indermitte, Carmen Íñiguez, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Shanshan Li, Joana Madureira, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Hans Orru, Ala Overcenco, Martina S Ragettli, Niilo R I Ryti, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Noah Scovronick, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira Silva, Massimo Stafoggia, Aurelio TobiasBackground: Extreme temperatures contribute significantly to global mortality. While previous studies on temperature and stroke-specific outcomes presented conflicting results, these studies were predominantly limited to single-city or single-country analyses. Their findings are difficult to synthesize due to variations in methodologies and exposure definitions. Methods: Within the Multi-Country Multi-City Network, we built a new mortality database for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. Applying a unified analysis protocol, we conducted a multinational case-crossover study on the relationship between extreme temperatures and stroke. In the first stage, we fitted a conditional quasi-Poisson regression for daily mortality counts with distributed lag nonlinear models for temperature exposure separately for each city. In the second stage, the cumulative risk from each city was pooled using mixed-effect meta-analyses, accounting for clustering of cities with similar features. We compared temperature-stroke associations across country-level gross domestic product per capita. We computed excess deaths in each city that are attributable to the 2.5% hottest and coldest of days based on each city's temperature distribution. Results: We collected data for a total of 3 443 969 ischemic strokes and 2 454 267 hemorrhagic stroke deaths from 522 cities in 25 countries. For every 1000 ischemic stroke deaths, we found that extreme cold and hot days contributed 9.1 (95% empirical CI, 8.6-9.4) and 2.2 (95% empirical CI, 1.9-2.4) excess deaths, respectively. For every 1000 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, extreme cold and hot days contributed 11.2 (95% empirical CI, 10.9-11.4) and 0.7 (95% empirical CI, 0.5-0.8) excess deaths, respectively. We found that countries with low gross domestic product per capita were at higher risk of heat-related hemorrhagic stroke mortality than countries with high gross domestic product per capita (P=0.02). Conclusions: Both extreme cold and hot temperatures are associated with an increased risk of dying from ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. As climate change continues to exacerbate these extreme temperatures, interventional strategies are needed to mitigate impacts on stroke mortality, particularly in low-income countries.Submitted by Almiñana María Cecilia (marialminana@gmail.com) on 2026-08-20T14:23:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 27293 bytes, checksum: d62648cf14c1e37917d392ac87012955 (MD5) Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality.pdf: 8132762 bytes, checksum: 295daf3e7758ba6bbb79d91ab6f72022 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Almiñana María Cecilia (marialminana@gmail.com) on 2026-08-20T15:44:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 27293 bytes, checksum: d62648cf14c1e37917d392ac87012955 (MD5) Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality.pdf: 8132762 bytes, checksum: 295daf3e7758ba6bbb79d91ab6f72022 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2026-08-21T16:14:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 27293 bytes, checksum: d62648cf14c1e37917d392ac87012955 (MD5) Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality.pdf: 8132762 bytes, checksum: 295daf3e7758ba6bbb79d91ab6f72022 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202419 p.application/pdfenengLippincott Williams & WilkinsStroke. 2024;55(7):1847-1856Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)Climate changeExtreme coldHemorrhagic strokeIschemic strokeTemperatureANCIANOPERSONA DE MEDIANA EDADESTUDIOS CRUZADOSCALOR EXTREMOMORTALIDADACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICOEFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZOACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICOGOLPE DE CALORFRÍO EXTREMOExtreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country AnalysisArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaAlahmad, BarrakKhraishah, HaithamKamineni, MeghanaColistro, ValentinaLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/56434/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
Alahmad, Barrak
Climate change
Extreme cold
Hemorrhagic stroke
Ischemic stroke
Temperature
ANCIANO
PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD
ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS
CALOR EXTREMO
MORTALIDAD
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO
EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO
GOLPE DE CALOR
FRÍO EXTREMO
status_str publishedVersion
title Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
title_full Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
title_fullStr Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
title_short Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
title_sort Extreme Temperatures and Stroke Mortality: Evidence From a Multi-Country Analysis
topic Climate change
Extreme cold
Hemorrhagic stroke
Ischemic stroke
Temperature
ANCIANO
PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD
ESTUDIOS CRUZADOS
CALOR EXTREMO
MORTALIDAD
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR HEMORRÁGICO
EFECTOS ADVERSOS A LARGO PLAZO
ACCIDENTE CEREBROVASCULAR ISQUÉMICO
GOLPE DE CALOR
FRÍO EXTREMO
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56434