Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018

Leal Filho, Walter - May, Julia - May, Marta - Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J

Resumen:

Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries


Detalles Bibliográficos
2023
Malaria incidence rates
Public health
Temperature
2000–2018
Climate vulnerability
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/43186
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Leal Filho, Walter
author2 May, Julia
May, Marta
Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J
author2_role author
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author
author_facet Leal Filho, Walter
May, Julia
May, Marta
Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J
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dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Leal Filho Walter
May Julia
May Marta
Nagy Breitenstein Gustavo J, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales.
dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv Sub-Saharan countries
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Leal Filho, Walter
May, Julia
May, Marta
Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03-19T12:48:01Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03-19T12:48:01Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries
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dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Leal Filho, W, May, J, May, M [y otros autores]. "Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018". Malaria Journal. [en línea] 2023, 22: 248. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4.
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1475-2875
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/43186
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Malaria Journal, 2023, 22: 248.
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Malaria incidence rates
Public health
Temperature
2000–2018
Climate vulnerability
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries
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identifier_str_mv Leal Filho, W, May, J, May, M [y otros autores]. "Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018". Malaria Journal. [en línea] 2023, 22: 248. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4.
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repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
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rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Leal Filho WalterMay JuliaMay MartaNagy Breitenstein Gustavo J, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales.Sub-Saharan countries2024-03-19T12:48:01Z2024-03-19T12:48:01Z2023Leal Filho, W, May, J, May, M [y otros autores]. "Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018". Malaria Journal. [en línea] 2023, 22: 248. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4.1475-2875https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4318610.1186/s12936-023-04682-4Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countriesSubmitted by Pintos Natalia (nataliapintosmvd@gmail.com) on 2024-03-18T14:53:16Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1186.s12936-023-04682-4.pdf: 1448442 bytes, checksum: 8dc798f13173990fd1feed3c4bcb9f3c (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2024-03-19T12:35:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1186.s12936-023-04682-4.pdf: 1448442 bytes, checksum: 8dc798f13173990fd1feed3c4bcb9f3c (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2024-03-19T12:48:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1186.s12936-023-04682-4.pdf: 1448442 bytes, checksum: 8dc798f13173990fd1feed3c4bcb9f3c (MD5) Previous issue date: 202314 h.application/pdfenengSpringer NatureMalaria Journal, 2023, 22: 248.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Malaria incidence ratesPublic healthTemperature2000–2018Climate vulnerabilityClimate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018Artículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaLeal Filho, WalterMay, JuliaMay, MartaNagy Breitenstein, Gustavo JLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/43186/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/43186/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
Leal Filho, Walter
Malaria incidence rates
Public health
Temperature
2000–2018
Climate vulnerability
status_str publishedVersion
title Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
title_full Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
title_fullStr Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
title_full_unstemmed Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
title_short Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
title_sort Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
topic Malaria incidence rates
Public health
Temperature
2000–2018
Climate vulnerability
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/43186