Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018
Resumen:
Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries
2023 | |
Malaria incidence rates Public health Temperature 2000–2018 Climate vulnerability |
|
Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/43186 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
_version_ | 1807522807917051904 |
---|---|
author | Leal Filho, Walter |
author2 | May, Julia May, Marta Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J |
author2_role | author author author |
author_facet | Leal Filho, Walter May, Julia May, Marta Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J |
author_role | author |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Leal Filho Walter May Julia May Marta Nagy Breitenstein Gustavo J, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales. |
dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv | Sub-Saharan countries |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Leal Filho, Walter May, Julia May, Marta Nagy Breitenstein, Gustavo J |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-03-19T12:48:01Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-03-19T12:48:01Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2023 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries |
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 14 h. |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Leal Filho, W, May, J, May, M [y otros autores]. "Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018". Malaria Journal. [en línea] 2023, 22: 248. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4. |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv | 1475-2875 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/43186 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | Springer Nature |
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Malaria Journal, 2023, 22: 248. |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Malaria incidence rates Public health Temperature 2000–2018 Climate vulnerability |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
description | Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countries |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | article |
id | COLIBRI_496136fd93300cb960cf1199eefd861d |
identifier_str_mv | Leal Filho, W, May, J, May, M [y otros autores]. "Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018". Malaria Journal. [en línea] 2023, 22: 248. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4. 1475-2875 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4 |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/43186 |
publishDate | 2023 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
spelling | Leal Filho WalterMay JuliaMay MartaNagy Breitenstein Gustavo J, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Ecología y Ciencias Ambientales.Sub-Saharan countries2024-03-19T12:48:01Z2024-03-19T12:48:01Z2023Leal Filho, W, May, J, May, M [y otros autores]. "Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018". Malaria Journal. [en línea] 2023, 22: 248. 14 h. DOI: 10.1186/s12936-023-04682-4.1475-2875https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4318610.1186/s12936-023-04682-4Background: Malaria is still a disease of massive burden in Africa, also infuenced by climate change. The fuctuations and trends of the temperature and precipitation are well-known determinant factors infuencing the disease’s vectors and incidence rates. This study provides a concise account of malaria trends. It describes the association between average temperature and malaria incidence rates (IR) in nine sub-Saharan African countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The incidence of malaria can vary both in areas where the disease is already present, and in regions where it is present in low numbers or absent. The increased vulnerability to the disease under increasing average temperatures and humidity is due to the new optimal level for vector breeding in areas where vector populations and transmission are low, and populations are sensitive due to low acquired immunity. Methods: A second source trend analysis was carried out of malaria cases and incidence rates (the number of new malaria cases per 1000 population at risk per year) with data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and average annual mean temperature from 2000 to 2018 from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). Additionally, descriptive epidemiological methods were used to describe the development and trends in the selected countries. Furthermore, MS Excel was chosen for data analysis and visualization. Results: Findings obtained from this article align with the recent literature, highlighting a declining trend (20–80%) of malaria IR (incidence rate) from 2000 to 2018. However, malaria IR varies considerably, with high values in Uganda, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zambia, moderate values in Ghana, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, and low values in South Africa and Ethiopia in 2018. Evidence suggests varying IRs after average temperature fuctuations in several countries (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia). Also, an inverse temperature-IR relationship occurs, the sharp decrease of IR during 2012–2014 and 2000–2003, respectively, occurred with increasing average temperatures in Ghana and Nigeria. The decreasing trends and fuctuations, partly accompanying the temperature, should result from the intervention programmes and rainfall variability. The vulnerability and changing climate could arrest the recent trends of falling IR. Conclusion: Thus, malaria is still a crucial public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, although a robust decreasing IR occurred in most studied countriesSubmitted by Pintos Natalia (nataliapintosmvd@gmail.com) on 2024-03-18T14:53:16Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1186.s12936-023-04682-4.pdf: 1448442 bytes, checksum: 8dc798f13173990fd1feed3c4bcb9f3c (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2024-03-19T12:35:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1186.s12936-023-04682-4.pdf: 1448442 bytes, checksum: 8dc798f13173990fd1feed3c4bcb9f3c (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2024-03-19T12:48:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1186.s12936-023-04682-4.pdf: 1448442 bytes, checksum: 8dc798f13173990fd1feed3c4bcb9f3c (MD5) Previous issue date: 202314 h.application/pdfenengSpringer NatureMalaria Journal, 2023, 22: 248.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Malaria incidence ratesPublic healthTemperature2000–2018Climate vulnerabilityClimate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018Artículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaLeal Filho, WalterMay, JuliaMay, MartaNagy Breitenstein, Gustavo JLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/43186/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/43186/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 Leal Filho, Walter Malaria incidence rates Public health Temperature 2000–2018 Climate vulnerability |
status_str | publishedVersion |
title | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
title_full | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
title_fullStr | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
title_short | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
title_sort | Climate change and malaria: some recent trends of malaria incidence rates and average annual temperature in selected sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2018 |
topic | Malaria incidence rates Public health Temperature 2000–2018 Climate vulnerability |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/43186 |