Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection
Resumen:
Evolutionary economics has been instrumental in explaining the nature of innovation processes and providing valuable heuristics for applied research. However, quantitative tests in this field remain scarce. A significant challenge is accurately estimating the fitness of companies. We propose the estimation of the financial fitness of a company by its market capitalization (MC) time series using Malthusian fitness and the selection equation of evolutionary biology. This definition of fitness implies that all companies, regardless of their industry, compete for investors’ money through their stocks. The resulting fluctuating selection from market capitalization (FSMC) formula allows forecasting companies’ shares of total MC through this selection equation. We validate the method using the daily MC of public-owned Fortune 100 companies over the period 2000–2021.
| 2024 | |
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Stock market dynamics forecasting Evolutionary economics Market capitalization time series |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48770 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1872864696799854592 |
|---|---|
| author | Fort, Hugo |
| author_facet | Fort, Hugo |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Fort Hugo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Fort, Hugo |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2025-03-26T16:04:41Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2025-03-26T16:04:41Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2024 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Evolutionary economics has been instrumental in explaining the nature of innovation processes and providing valuable heuristics for applied research. However, quantitative tests in this field remain scarce. A significant challenge is accurately estimating the fitness of companies. We propose the estimation of the financial fitness of a company by its market capitalization (MC) time series using Malthusian fitness and the selection equation of evolutionary biology. This definition of fitness implies that all companies, regardless of their industry, compete for investors’ money through their stocks. The resulting fluctuating selection from market capitalization (FSMC) formula allows forecasting companies’ shares of total MC through this selection equation. We validate the method using the daily MC of public-owned Fortune 100 companies over the period 2000–2021. |
| dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv | Presentado en: 10th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, Gran Canaria, Spain, 15–17 July 2024 |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 10 h. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Fort, H. "Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection". Engineering Proceedings. [en línea] 2024, 68: 21. 10 h. DOI: 10.3390/engproc2024068021 |
| dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.3390/engproc2024068021 |
| dc.identifier.eissn.none.fl_str_mv | 2673-4591 |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48770 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | MDPI |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Engineering Proceedings, 2024, 68: 21 |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Stock market dynamics forecasting Evolutionary economics Market capitalization time series |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Artículo |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| description | Presentado en: 10th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, Gran Canaria, Spain, 15–17 July 2024 |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | article |
| id | COLIBRI_469f5f9e01b964fd4190f54f0ae8aa52 |
| identifier_str_mv | Fort, H. "Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection". Engineering Proceedings. [en línea] 2024, 68: 21. 10 h. DOI: 10.3390/engproc2024068021 10.3390/engproc2024068021 2673-4591 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/48770 |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
| spelling | Fort Hugo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2025-03-26T16:04:41Z2025-03-26T16:04:41Z2024Fort, H. "Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection". Engineering Proceedings. [en línea] 2024, 68: 21. 10 h. DOI: 10.3390/engproc2024068021https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4877010.3390/engproc20240680212673-4591Presentado en: 10th International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, Gran Canaria, Spain, 15–17 July 2024Evolutionary economics has been instrumental in explaining the nature of innovation processes and providing valuable heuristics for applied research. However, quantitative tests in this field remain scarce. A significant challenge is accurately estimating the fitness of companies. We propose the estimation of the financial fitness of a company by its market capitalization (MC) time series using Malthusian fitness and the selection equation of evolutionary biology. This definition of fitness implies that all companies, regardless of their industry, compete for investors’ money through their stocks. The resulting fluctuating selection from market capitalization (FSMC) formula allows forecasting companies’ shares of total MC through this selection equation. We validate the method using the daily MC of public-owned Fortune 100 companies over the period 2000–2021.Submitted by Pintos Natalia (nataliapintosmvd@gmail.com) on 2025-03-21T11:37:54Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) 10.3390engproc2024068021.pdf: 2160767 bytes, checksum: bf983ffc971e883752df9069aaa53f06 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2025-03-26T13:02:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) 10.3390engproc2024068021.pdf: 2160767 bytes, checksum: bf983ffc971e883752df9069aaa53f06 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2025-03-26T16:04:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24942 bytes, checksum: 58cb336ce230a47d2f88ad02838a665f (MD5) 10.3390engproc2024068021.pdf: 2160767 bytes, checksum: bf983ffc971e883752df9069aaa53f06 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202410 h.application/pdfenengMDPIEngineering Proceedings, 2024, 68: 21Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Stock market dynamics forecastingEvolutionary economicsMarket capitalization time seriesForecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selectionArtículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaFort, HugoLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48770/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/48770/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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públicahttps://udelar.edu.uy/https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/oai/requestkarina.camps@seciu.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:47712025-03-31T12:16:14COLIBRI - Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection Fort, Hugo Stock market dynamics forecasting Evolutionary economics Market capitalization time series |
| status_str | publishedVersion |
| title | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| title_full | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| title_short | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| title_sort | Forecasting stock market dynamics using market cap time series of firms and fuctuating selection |
| topic | Stock market dynamics forecasting Evolutionary economics Market capitalization time series |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/48770 |
