Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors

Giacosa, Gianina - Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo

Resumen:

Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead).

Detalles Bibliográficos
2019
Solar irradiation
Forecast
Satellite images
GOES-East
CMV
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
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author Giacosa, Gianina
author2 Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
author2_role author
author_facet Giacosa, Gianina
Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Giacosa Gianina, Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Montevideo (Uruguay)
Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Física. Laboratorio de Energía Solar.
dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv Uruguay
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Giacosa, Gianina
Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-17T16:32:40Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-06-17T16:32:40Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead).
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 8 p.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Giacosa, G. y Alonso-Suárez, R. Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019. Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019. DOI: 10.18086/swc.2019.43.03
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv ISES
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019, Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Solar irradiation
Forecast
Satellite images
GOES-East
CMV
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Preprint
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
description Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead).
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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identifier_str_mv Giacosa, G. y Alonso-Suárez, R. Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019. Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019. DOI: 10.18086/swc.2019.43.03
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
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network_acronym_str COLIBRI
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publishDate 2019
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)
spelling Giacosa Gianina, Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Montevideo (Uruguay)Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Física. Laboratorio de Energía Solar.Uruguay2020-06-17T16:32:40Z2020-06-17T16:32:40Z2019Giacosa, G. y Alonso-Suárez, R. Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019. Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019. DOI: 10.18086/swc.2019.43.03https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead).Submitted by Cabrera Gabriela (gfcabrerarossi@gmail.com) on 2020-06-16T23:49:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) GA19.pdf: 1018234 bytes, checksum: 9b39f331e5dbf7bbd3b32554195f07aa (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2020-06-17T16:08:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) GA19.pdf: 1018234 bytes, checksum: 9b39f331e5dbf7bbd3b32554195f07aa (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@fic.edu.uy) on 2020-06-17T16:32:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) GA19.pdf: 1018234 bytes, checksum: 9b39f331e5dbf7bbd3b32554195f07aa (MD5) Previous issue date: 20198 p.application/pdfenengISESProceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019, Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. 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públicahttps://udelar.edu.uy/https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/oai/requestkarina.camps@seciu.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:47712023-08-01T18:14:45COLIBRI - Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
Giacosa, Gianina
Solar irradiation
Forecast
Satellite images
GOES-East
CMV
status_str submittedVersion
title Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
title_full Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
title_fullStr Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
title_full_unstemmed Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
title_short Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
title_sort Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
topic Solar irradiation
Forecast
Satellite images
GOES-East
CMV
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363