Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors
Resumen:
Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead).
| 2019 | |
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Solar irradiation Forecast Satellite images GOES-East CMV |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
| https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363 | |
| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1872865323424677888 |
|---|---|
| author | Giacosa, Gianina |
| author2 | Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo |
| author2_role | author |
| author_facet | Giacosa, Gianina Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Giacosa Gianina, Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Montevideo (Uruguay) Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Física. Laboratorio de Energía Solar. |
| dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv | Uruguay |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Giacosa, Gianina Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2020-06-17T16:32:40Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2020-06-17T16:32:40Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2019 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead). |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 8 p. |
| dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Giacosa, G. y Alonso-Suárez, R. Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019. Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019. DOI: 10.18086/swc.2019.43.03 |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv | ISES |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv | Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019, Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019 |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Solar irradiation Forecast Satellite images GOES-East CMV |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Preprint |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion |
| description | Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead). |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | preprint |
| id | COLIBRI_43c15508224f0ee1766f9e00d2031132 |
| identifier_str_mv | Giacosa, G. y Alonso-Suárez, R. Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019. Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019. DOI: 10.18086/swc.2019.43.03 |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/24363 |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | karina.camps@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | Giacosa Gianina, Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Montevideo (Uruguay)Alonso-Suárez Rodrigo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Física. Laboratorio de Energía Solar.Uruguay2020-06-17T16:32:40Z2020-06-17T16:32:40Z2019Giacosa, G. y Alonso-Suárez, R. Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors. [Preprint]. Publicado en: Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019. Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019. DOI: 10.18086/swc.2019.43.03https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363Reliable solar irradiation forecast is increasingly important for solar PV power dispatch. Satellite forecasting methods are suitable for the intra-day time horizons. In this work we evaluate the performance of the satellite cloud motion vector (CMV) forecasting technique proposed by Lorenz et al. (2004) for the Uruguayan territory. The local implementation of this technique is also presented in this article. The performance assessment is done for the prediction of the hourly solar global irradiation at ground level from 1 to 5 hours ahead and for site and regional forecast. The relative root mean square deviation (rRMSD) ranges from 19% to 37% for the site CMV forecast and from 9% to 18% for the regional CMV forecast. As expected, the deviations in the prediction are higher over specific sites than over the entire region. Positive forecasting skills (FS) are obtained for all the inspected time horizons in both spatial scales (site and regional). The FS metric peaks at +16% for site forecast (at 2 hours ahead) and peaks at +30% for regional forecast (at 4 hours ahead).Submitted by Cabrera Gabriela (gfcabrerarossi@gmail.com) on 2020-06-16T23:49:49Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) GA19.pdf: 1018234 bytes, checksum: 9b39f331e5dbf7bbd3b32554195f07aa (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2020-06-17T16:08:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) GA19.pdf: 1018234 bytes, checksum: 9b39f331e5dbf7bbd3b32554195f07aa (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@fic.edu.uy) on 2020-06-17T16:32:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) GA19.pdf: 1018234 bytes, checksum: 9b39f331e5dbf7bbd3b32554195f07aa (MD5) Previous issue date: 20198 p.application/pdfenengISESProceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2019, Santiago de Chile, Chile, 4-7 de Noviembre, 2019Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)Solar irradiationForecastSatellite imagesGOES-EastCMVPerformance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectorsPreprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaGiacosa, GianinaAlonso-Suárez, RodrigoLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/24363/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-850http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/24363/2/license_urla006180e3f5b2ad0b88185d14284c0e0MD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; 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públicahttps://udelar.edu.uy/https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/oai/requestkarina.camps@seciu.edu.uyUruguayopendoar:47712023-08-01T18:14:45COLIBRI - Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors Giacosa, Gianina Solar irradiation Forecast Satellite images GOES-East CMV |
| status_str | submittedVersion |
| title | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| title_full | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| title_fullStr | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| title_short | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| title_sort | Performance assessment of intra-day solar irradiation forecast in Uruguay using satellite cloud motion vectors |
| topic | Solar irradiation Forecast Satellite images GOES-East CMV |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/24363 |