SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions?
Resumen:
All South American countries from the Southern cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) experienced severe COVID-19 epidemic waves during early 2021 driven by the expansion of variants Gamma and Lambda, however, there was an improvement in different epidemic indicators since June 2021. To investigate the impact of national vaccination programs and natural infection on viral transmission in those South American countries, we analyzed the coupling between population mobility and the viral effective reproduction number Rt. Our analyses reveal that population mobility was highly correlated with viral Rt from January to May 2021 in all countries analyzed; but a clear decoupling occurred since May-June 2021, when the rate of viral spread started to be lower than expected from the levels of social interactions. These findings support that populations from the South American Southern cone probably achieved the conditional herd immunity threshold to contain the spread of regional SARS-CoV-2 variants.
| 2021 | |
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Movilidad Tasa de reproducción Series temporales COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701v1
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/29665 |
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| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| _version_ | 1807522897463345152 |
|---|---|
| author | Fiori, Marcelo |
| author2 | Bello, Gonzalo Wschebor, Nicolás Lecumberry, Federico Ferragut, Andrés Mordecki, Ernesto |
| author2_role | author author author author author |
| author_facet | Fiori, Marcelo Bello, Gonzalo Wschebor, Nicolás Lecumberry, Federico Ferragut, Andrés Mordecki, Ernesto |
| author_role | author |
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| collection | COLIBRI |
| dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Fiori Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Bello Gonzalo, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro , Brazil Wschebor Nicolás, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Lecumberry Federico, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería. Ferragut Andrés, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad ORT, Uruguay Mordecki Ernesto, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. |
| dc.coverage.spatial.es.fl_str_mv | Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. |
| dc.coverage.temporal.es.fl_str_mv | Primer semestre 2021 |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Fiori, Marcelo Bello, Gonzalo Wschebor, Nicolás Lecumberry, Federico Ferragut, Andrés Mordecki, Ernesto |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2021-09-27T17:54:44Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2021-09-27T17:54:44Z |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2021 |
| dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | All South American countries from the Southern cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) experienced severe COVID-19 epidemic waves during early 2021 driven by the expansion of variants Gamma and Lambda, however, there was an improvement in different epidemic indicators since June 2021. To investigate the impact of national vaccination programs and natural infection on viral transmission in those South American countries, we analyzed the coupling between population mobility and the viral effective reproduction number Rt. Our analyses reveal that population mobility was highly correlated with viral Rt from January to May 2021 in all countries analyzed; but a clear decoupling occurred since May-June 2021, when the rate of viral spread started to be lower than expected from the levels of social interactions. These findings support that populations from the South American Southern cone probably achieved the conditional herd immunity threshold to contain the spread of regional SARS-CoV-2 variants. |
| dc.description.en.fl_txt_mv | This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice. |
| dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 11 p. |
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| dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Fiori, M., Bello, G., Wschebor, N. y otros. SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? [Preprint]. Publicado en: medRxiv. Sep 2021, pp. 1-11, DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701. |
| dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701v1 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/29665 |
| dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
| dc.publisher.en.fl_str_mv | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) |
| dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | medRxiv, sep 2021, pp.1-11 |
| dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
| dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Movilidad Tasa de reproducción Series temporales COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Preprint |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint |
| dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion |
| description | This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice. |
| eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
| format | preprint |
| id | COLIBRI_3f796c7aa70db523f4fdab1694946096 |
| identifier_str_mv | Fiori, M., Bello, G., Wschebor, N. y otros. SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? [Preprint]. Publicado en: medRxiv. Sep 2021, pp. 1-11, DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701. |
| instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
| institution | Universidad de la República |
| instname_str | Universidad de la República |
| language | eng |
| language_invalid_str_mv | en |
| network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
| network_name_str | COLIBRI |
| oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/29665 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| reponame_str | COLIBRI |
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
| repository_id_str | 4771 |
| rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| spelling | Fiori Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Bello Gonzalo, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro , BrazilWschebor Nicolás, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Lecumberry Federico, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ingeniería.Ferragut Andrés, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad ORT, UruguayMordecki Ernesto, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias.Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay.Primer semestre 20212021-09-27T17:54:44Z2021-09-27T17:54:44Z2021Fiori, M., Bello, G., Wschebor, N. y otros. SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? [Preprint]. Publicado en: medRxiv. Sep 2021, pp. 1-11, DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701v1https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/29665This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.All South American countries from the Southern cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) experienced severe COVID-19 epidemic waves during early 2021 driven by the expansion of variants Gamma and Lambda, however, there was an improvement in different epidemic indicators since June 2021. To investigate the impact of national vaccination programs and natural infection on viral transmission in those South American countries, we analyzed the coupling between population mobility and the viral effective reproduction number Rt. Our analyses reveal that population mobility was highly correlated with viral Rt from January to May 2021 in all countries analyzed; but a clear decoupling occurred since May-June 2021, when the rate of viral spread started to be lower than expected from the levels of social interactions. These findings support that populations from the South American Southern cone probably achieved the conditional herd immunity threshold to contain the spread of regional SARS-CoV-2 variants.Submitted by Ribeiro Jorge (jribeiro@fing.edu.uy) on 2021-09-23T19:23:44Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) FBWLFM21.pdf: 801842 bytes, checksum: 5ae2a4d9dc4388aa31496aa33a665502 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Machado Jimena (jmachado@fing.edu.uy) on 2021-09-27T17:15:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) FBWLFM21.pdf: 801842 bytes, checksum: 5ae2a4d9dc4388aa31496aa33a665502 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Luna Fabiana (fabiana.luna@seciu.edu.uy) on 2021-09-27T17:54:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23149 bytes, checksum: 1996b8461bc290aef6a27d78c67b6b52 (MD5) FBWLFM21.pdf: 801842 bytes, checksum: 5ae2a4d9dc4388aa31496aa33a665502 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202111 p.application/pdfenengCold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL)medRxiv, sep 2021, pp.1-11Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0)MovilidadTasa de reproducciónSeries temporalesCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions?Preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaFiori, MarceloBello, GonzaloWschebor, NicolásLecumberry, FedericoFerragut, AndrésMordecki, ErnestoProcesamiento de SeñalesTratamiento de ImágenesLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/29665/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
| spellingShingle | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? Fiori, Marcelo Movilidad Tasa de reproducción Series temporales COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
| status_str | submittedVersion |
| title | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| title_full | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| title_fullStr | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| title_full_unstemmed | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| title_short | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| title_sort | SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions? |
| topic | Movilidad Tasa de reproducción Series temporales COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
| url | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701v1 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/29665 |
