SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the South American Southern cone: can combined immunity from vaccination and infection prevent the spread of Gamma and Lambda variants while easing restrictions?
Resumen:
All South American countries from the Southern cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) experienced severe COVID-19 epidemic waves during early 2021 driven by the expansion of variants Gamma and Lambda, however, there was an improvement in different epidemic indicators since June 2021. To investigate the impact of national vaccination programs and natural infection on viral transmission in those South American countries, we analyzed the coupling between population mobility and the viral effective reproduction number Rt. Our analyses reveal that population mobility was highly correlated with viral Rt from January to May 2021 in all countries analyzed; but a clear decoupling occurred since May-June 2021, when the rate of viral spread started to be lower than expected from the levels of social interactions. These findings support that populations from the South American Southern cone probably achieved the conditional herd immunity threshold to contain the spread of regional SARS-CoV-2 variants.
| 2021 | |
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Movilidad Tasa de reproducción Series temporales COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 |
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| Inglés | |
| Universidad de la República | |
| COLIBRI | |
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.16.21263701v1
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/29665 |
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| Acceso abierto | |
| Licencia Creative Commons Atribución - No Comercial - Sin Derivadas (CC - By-NC-ND 4.0) |
| Sumario: | This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice. |
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