How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?

Pérez, Iago - Barreiro, Marcelo

Resumen:

Rossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosphere. Therefore, forecast models should be able to correctly predict their formation and development to enhance extreme weather events prediction from 10 to 30 days in advance. In this study, we assess whether the NCEP and IAP-CAS subseasonal forecast models can predict the evolution of observed RWPs that last more than 8 days (long-lived RWPs or LLRWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. Results show that the NCEP (IAP-CAS) model forecasts LLRWPs that appear eastward (westward) from the observed LLRWPs. Both models forecasted LLRWPs that rapidly lose energy after the 6th–7th lead day of simulation, which could limit LLRWPs prediction to the synoptic time scale. Additionally, both models better forecast LLRWPs when the packets manifest in the eastern Pacific. Southern Annular mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) do not seem to exert a large influence in the representation of LLRWPs. Nevertheless, during the best LLRWPs forecasts, the observed circulation anomalies signal the manifestation of negative SAM events. In contrast, both forecast models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs when a blocking situation develops to the South of Australia. Lastly, an inactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to favor the development of accurate LLRWPs forecasts, whereas during phases 3, 5 in the NCEP model and 3, 8 for IAP-CAS, the models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2023
IAP-CAS
MJO
NCEP
Rossby wave packets
S2S
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42229
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Pérez, Iago
author2 Barreiro, Marcelo
author2_role author
author_facet Pérez, Iago
Barreiro, Marcelo
author_role author
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collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Pérez Iago, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.
Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Pérez, Iago
Barreiro, Marcelo
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-01-23T18:25:49Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-01-23T18:25:49Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv Rossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosphere. Therefore, forecast models should be able to correctly predict their formation and development to enhance extreme weather events prediction from 10 to 30 days in advance. In this study, we assess whether the NCEP and IAP-CAS subseasonal forecast models can predict the evolution of observed RWPs that last more than 8 days (long-lived RWPs or LLRWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. Results show that the NCEP (IAP-CAS) model forecasts LLRWPs that appear eastward (westward) from the observed LLRWPs. Both models forecasted LLRWPs that rapidly lose energy after the 6th–7th lead day of simulation, which could limit LLRWPs prediction to the synoptic time scale. Additionally, both models better forecast LLRWPs when the packets manifest in the eastern Pacific. Southern Annular mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) do not seem to exert a large influence in the representation of LLRWPs. Nevertheless, during the best LLRWPs forecasts, the observed circulation anomalies signal the manifestation of negative SAM events. In contrast, both forecast models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs when a blocking situation develops to the South of Australia. Lastly, an inactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to favor the development of accurate LLRWPs forecasts, whereas during phases 3, 5 in the NCEP model and 3, 8 for IAP-CAS, the models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs.
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 11 h.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Pérez, I y Barreiro, M. "How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?". Atmospheric Science Letters. [en línea] 2023, 24(10): e1175. 11 h. DOI: 10.1002/asl.1175
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1002/asl.1175
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1530-261X
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42229
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.publisher.es.fl_str_mv Royal Meteorological Society
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Atmospheric Science Letters, 2023, 24(10): e1175
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv IAP-CAS
MJO
NCEP
Rossby wave packets
S2S
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
description Rossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosphere. Therefore, forecast models should be able to correctly predict their formation and development to enhance extreme weather events prediction from 10 to 30 days in advance. In this study, we assess whether the NCEP and IAP-CAS subseasonal forecast models can predict the evolution of observed RWPs that last more than 8 days (long-lived RWPs or LLRWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. Results show that the NCEP (IAP-CAS) model forecasts LLRWPs that appear eastward (westward) from the observed LLRWPs. Both models forecasted LLRWPs that rapidly lose energy after the 6th–7th lead day of simulation, which could limit LLRWPs prediction to the synoptic time scale. Additionally, both models better forecast LLRWPs when the packets manifest in the eastern Pacific. Southern Annular mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) do not seem to exert a large influence in the representation of LLRWPs. Nevertheless, during the best LLRWPs forecasts, the observed circulation anomalies signal the manifestation of negative SAM events. In contrast, both forecast models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs when a blocking situation develops to the South of Australia. Lastly, an inactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to favor the development of accurate LLRWPs forecasts, whereas during phases 3, 5 in the NCEP model and 3, 8 for IAP-CAS, the models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs.
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format article
id COLIBRI_3c7ca3c8ba907dcdd16b9984d9b34ffc
identifier_str_mv Pérez, I y Barreiro, M. "How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?". Atmospheric Science Letters. [en línea] 2023, 24(10): e1175. 11 h. DOI: 10.1002/asl.1175
1530-261X
10.1002/asl.1175
instacron_str Universidad de la República
institution Universidad de la República
instname_str Universidad de la República
language eng
language_invalid_str_mv en
network_acronym_str COLIBRI
network_name_str COLIBRI
oai_identifier_str oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/42229
publishDate 2023
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Pérez Iago, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2024-01-23T18:25:49Z2024-01-23T18:25:49Z2023Pérez, I y Barreiro, M. "How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?". Atmospheric Science Letters. [en línea] 2023, 24(10): e1175. 11 h. DOI: 10.1002/asl.11751530-261Xhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4222910.1002/asl.1175Rossby wave packets (RWPs), are atmospheric perturbations linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extratropical cyclone development and other equally destructive phenomena. Under certain circumstances, these packets can last from several days to 2–3 weeks in the atmosphere. Therefore, forecast models should be able to correctly predict their formation and development to enhance extreme weather events prediction from 10 to 30 days in advance. In this study, we assess whether the NCEP and IAP-CAS subseasonal forecast models can predict the evolution of observed RWPs that last more than 8 days (long-lived RWPs or LLRWPs) during southern hemisphere summer. Results show that the NCEP (IAP-CAS) model forecasts LLRWPs that appear eastward (westward) from the observed LLRWPs. Both models forecasted LLRWPs that rapidly lose energy after the 6th–7th lead day of simulation, which could limit LLRWPs prediction to the synoptic time scale. Additionally, both models better forecast LLRWPs when the packets manifest in the eastern Pacific. Southern Annular mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) do not seem to exert a large influence in the representation of LLRWPs. Nevertheless, during the best LLRWPs forecasts, the observed circulation anomalies signal the manifestation of negative SAM events. In contrast, both forecast models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs when a blocking situation develops to the South of Australia. Lastly, an inactive Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) seems to favor the development of accurate LLRWPs forecasts, whereas during phases 3, 5 in the NCEP model and 3, 8 for IAP-CAS, the models struggle at forecasting LLRWPs.Submitted by Pintos Natalia (nataliapintosmvd@gmail.com) on 2024-01-23T15:34:29Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1002asl.1175.pdf: 4162785 bytes, checksum: 929542daf6347c5ab3ae36dce6dd4bc3 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2024-01-23T17:34:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1002asl.1175.pdf: 4162785 bytes, checksum: 929542daf6347c5ab3ae36dce6dd4bc3 (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Seroubian Mabel (mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy) on 2024-01-23T18:25:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1002asl.1175.pdf: 4162785 bytes, checksum: 929542daf6347c5ab3ae36dce6dd4bc3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 202311 h.application/pdfenengRoyal Meteorological SocietyAtmospheric Science Letters, 2023, 24(10): e1175Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)IAP-CASMJONCEPRossby wave packetsS2SHow well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?Artículoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaPérez, IagoBarreiro, MarceloLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42229/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42229/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; charset=utf-820555http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42229/3/license_textc3353adb4b970603e3b1fce8a9e67d6cMD53license_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
Pérez, Iago
IAP-CAS
MJO
NCEP
Rossby wave packets
S2S
status_str publishedVersion
title How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
title_full How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
title_fullStr How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
title_full_unstemmed How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
title_short How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
title_sort How well do forecast models represent observed long-lived Rossby wave packets during southern hemisphere summer?
topic IAP-CAS
MJO
NCEP
Rossby wave packets
S2S
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42229