Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
Resumen:
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define Madden-Julian events as the contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event gets extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of sub-seasonal predictability.
2023 | |
Madden-Julian oscillation | |
Inglés | |
Universidad de la República | |
COLIBRI | |
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42240 | |
Acceso abierto | |
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
_version_ | 1807522805639544832 |
---|---|
author | Corral, Álvaro |
author2 | Minjares, Mónica Barreiro, Marcelo |
author2_role | author author |
author_facet | Corral, Álvaro Minjares, Mónica Barreiro, Marcelo |
author_role | author |
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bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv | MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 MD5 |
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collection | COLIBRI |
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv | Corral Álvaro Minjares Mónica Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física. |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv | Corral, Álvaro Minjares, Mónica Barreiro, Marcelo |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-01-24T17:36:07Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv | 2024-01-24T17:36:07Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv | 2023 |
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv | The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define Madden-Julian events as the contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event gets extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of sub-seasonal predictability. |
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv | Publicado también en: Physical Review E, 2023, 108(5): 054214. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214 |
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv | 37 h. |
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv | application/pdf |
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv | Corral, Á, Minjares, M y Barreiro, M. "Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days". [Preprint]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2023 arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. 37 h. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv | 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42240 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv | en eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. |
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv | reponame:COLIBRI instname:Universidad de la República instacron:Universidad de la República |
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv | Madden-Julian oscillation |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv | Preprint |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint |
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv | info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion |
description | Publicado también en: Physical Review E, 2023, 108(5): 054214. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214 |
eu_rights_str_mv | openAccess |
format | preprint |
id | COLIBRI_3a0c14910aecd7e68199efa829053dc0 |
identifier_str_mv | Corral, Á, Minjares, M y Barreiro, M. "Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days". [Preprint]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2023 arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. 37 h. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863 |
instacron_str | Universidad de la República |
institution | Universidad de la República |
instname_str | Universidad de la República |
language | eng |
language_invalid_str_mv | en |
network_acronym_str | COLIBRI |
network_name_str | COLIBRI |
oai_identifier_str | oai:colibri.udelar.edu.uy:20.500.12008/42240 |
publishDate | 2023 |
reponame_str | COLIBRI |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv | mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy |
repository.name.fl_str_mv | COLIBRI - Universidad de la República |
repository_id_str | 4771 |
rights_invalid_str_mv | Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0) |
spelling | Corral ÁlvaroMinjares MónicaBarreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2024-01-24T17:36:07Z2024-01-24T17:36:07Z2023Corral, Á, Minjares, M y Barreiro, M. "Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days". [Preprint]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2023 arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. 37 h. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4224010.48550/arXiv.2304.12863Publicado también en: Physical Review E, 2023, 108(5): 054214. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define Madden-Julian events as the contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event gets extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of sub-seasonal predictability.Submitted by Pintos Natalia (nataliapintosmvd@gmail.com) on 2024-01-24T15:42:05Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf: 809821 bytes, checksum: dfc2d7bea47507f0c007e025d0c422df (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2024-01-24T17:29:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf: 809821 bytes, checksum: dfc2d7bea47507f0c007e025d0c422df (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Seroubian Mabel (mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy) on 2024-01-24T17:36:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf: 809821 bytes, checksum: dfc2d7bea47507f0c007e025d0c422df (MD5) Previous issue date: 202337 h.application/pdfenengAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics, arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Madden-Julian oscillationIncreased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.Preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaCorral, ÁlvaroMinjares, MónicaBarreiro, MarceloLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; charset=utf-820555http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/3/license_textc3353adb4b970603e3b1fce8a9e67d6cMD53license_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse |
spellingShingle | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. Corral, Álvaro Madden-Julian oscillation |
status_str | submittedVersion |
title | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
title_full | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
title_fullStr | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
title_full_unstemmed | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
title_short | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
title_sort | Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days. |
topic | Madden-Julian oscillation |
url | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42240 |