Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.

Corral, Álvaro - Minjares, Mónica - Barreiro, Marcelo

Resumen:

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define Madden-Julian events as the contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event gets extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of sub-seasonal predictability.


Detalles Bibliográficos
2023
Madden-Julian oscillation
Inglés
Universidad de la República
COLIBRI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42240
Acceso abierto
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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author Corral, Álvaro
author2 Minjares, Mónica
Barreiro, Marcelo
author2_role author
author
author_facet Corral, Álvaro
Minjares, Mónica
Barreiro, Marcelo
author_role author
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http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/1/10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf
collection COLIBRI
dc.contributor.filiacion.none.fl_str_mv Corral Álvaro
Minjares Mónica
Barreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Corral, Álvaro
Minjares, Mónica
Barreiro, Marcelo
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-01-24T17:36:07Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-01-24T17:36:07Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2023
dc.description.abstract.none.fl_txt_mv The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define Madden-Julian events as the contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event gets extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of sub-seasonal predictability.
dc.description.es.fl_txt_mv Publicado también en: Physical Review E, 2023, 108(5): 054214. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214
dc.format.extent.es.fl_str_mv 37 h.
dc.format.mimetype.es.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.identifier.citation.es.fl_str_mv Corral, Á, Minjares, M y Barreiro, M. "Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days". [Preprint]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2023 arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. 37 h. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42240
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv en
eng
dc.relation.ispartof.es.fl_str_mv Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023.
dc.rights.license.none.fl_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:COLIBRI
instname:Universidad de la República
instacron:Universidad de la República
dc.subject.es.fl_str_mv Madden-Julian oscillation
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
dc.type.es.fl_str_mv Preprint
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint
dc.type.version.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
description Publicado también en: Physical Review E, 2023, 108(5): 054214. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
format preprint
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identifier_str_mv Corral, Á, Minjares, M y Barreiro, M. "Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days". [Preprint]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2023 arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. 37 h. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863
10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863
instacron_str Universidad de la República
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publishDate 2023
reponame_str COLIBRI
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy
repository.name.fl_str_mv COLIBRI - Universidad de la República
repository_id_str 4771
rights_invalid_str_mv Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
spelling Corral ÁlvaroMinjares MónicaBarreiro Marcelo, Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Física.2024-01-24T17:36:07Z2024-01-24T17:36:07Z2023Corral, Á, Minjares, M y Barreiro, M. "Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days". [Preprint]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2023 arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023. 37 h. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2304.12863https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4224010.48550/arXiv.2304.12863Publicado también en: Physical Review E, 2023, 108(5): 054214. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.108.054214The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical weather system having important influence in the tropics and beyond; however, many of its characteristics are poorly understood, including their initiation and completion. Here we define Madden-Julian events as the contiguous time periods with an active MJO, and we show that both the durations and the sizes of these events are well described by a double power-law distribution. Thus, small events have no characteristic scale, and the same for large events; nevertheless, both types of events are separated by a characteristic duration of about 27 days (this corresponds to half a cycle, roughly). Thus, after 27 days, there is a sharp increase in the probability that an event gets extinct. We find that this effect is independent of the starting and ending phases of the events, which seems to point to an internal mechanism of exhaustion rather than to the effect of an external barrier. Our results would imply an important limitation of the MJO as a driver of sub-seasonal predictability.Submitted by Pintos Natalia (nataliapintosmvd@gmail.com) on 2024-01-24T15:42:05Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf: 809821 bytes, checksum: dfc2d7bea47507f0c007e025d0c422df (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Faget Cecilia (lfaget@fcien.edu.uy) on 2024-01-24T17:29:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf: 809821 bytes, checksum: dfc2d7bea47507f0c007e025d0c422df (MD5)Made available in DSpace by Seroubian Mabel (mabel.seroubian@seciu.edu.uy) on 2024-01-24T17:36:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 24251 bytes, checksum: 71ed42ef0a0b648670f707320be37b90 (MD5) 10.1103.PhysRevE.108.054214.pdf: 809821 bytes, checksum: dfc2d7bea47507f0c007e025d0c422df (MD5) Previous issue date: 202337 h.application/pdfenengAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics, arXiv:2304.12863, apr 2023.Las obras depositadas en el Repositorio se rigen por la Ordenanza de los Derechos de la Propiedad Intelectual de la Universidad de la República.(Res. Nº 91 de C.D.C. de 8/III/1994 – D.O. 7/IV/1994) y por la Ordenanza del Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de la República (Res. Nº 16 de C.D.C. de 07/10/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLicencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)Madden-Julian oscillationIncreased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.Preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionreponame:COLIBRIinstname:Universidad de la Repúblicainstacron:Universidad de la RepúblicaCorral, ÁlvaroMinjares, MónicaBarreiro, MarceloLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-84267http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/5/license.txt6429389a7df7277b72b7924fdc7d47a9MD55CC-LICENSElicense_urllicense_urltext/plain; charset=utf-844http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/2/license_urla0ebbeafb9d2ec7cbb19d7137ebc392cMD52license_textlicense_texttext/html; charset=utf-820555http://localhost:8080/xmlui/bitstream/20.500.12008/42240/3/license_textc3353adb4b970603e3b1fce8a9e67d6cMD53license_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; 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- Universidad de la Repúblicafalse
spellingShingle Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
Corral, Álvaro
Madden-Julian oscillation
status_str submittedVersion
title Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
title_full Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
title_fullStr Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
title_full_unstemmed Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
title_short Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
title_sort Increased extinction probability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation after about 27 days.
topic Madden-Julian oscillation
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42240